Every year, before I write the Preview, I think about Giants fan Arnie Vernick. Arnie is no longer with us. He was a lifelong season ticket holder (first tier end zone) who has now passed to greener football pastures. Arnie used to always say that if the Giants had a good season, he looked for a down year, and likewise if things were poor then look for a better season the following year.
I sure hope Arnie is looking down on us and the Giants. We need a bounce-back year.
Giants fans are sick and tired about being sick and tired about the Giants. If my inner circle of cronies is any indication, fans may be on suicide watch if we can’t see a decent uptick in play this season. It is Year 3 for Schoen and Daboll. The honeymoon is long gone. The roster has been turned over for (most of) Schoen’s guys. There are only 5 players left from Gettleman’s spam sandwich:
Daniel Jones
Darius Slayton
Andrew Thomas
Carter Coughlin
Dexter Lawrence
Despite our view of the overall positive job that Schoen has done, even we are disappointed with where the team is at the moment. Jones is a poor processor. Neal is tracking to bust at the current time barring a major salvage by Carm. Thibodeaux needs to play more consistently. JMS needs to stay on the field. Daboll needs to be a better manager of his coaching staff. And this rookie draft class needs to hit. Fwiw Dan Schneier (BBB) is super bullish on this year’s crop. This is what Schoen and the Giants so desperately need. The last time the Giants had a deep draft class, it was 2007. No, even a deep 2024 draft will not turn us into Super Bowl Champs. But a very solid draft could end the rebuilding.
Prognosticators are generally bearish. Wonder likes the Under. John Schmeelk, though employed by the Giants, is not a homer, and he likes the Over. “I feel better about this team today than I felt about last year’s team at this time… it has Nabers, Burns, and a better Offensive Line,” said the NY Giants analyst. 4 out of 5 USA Today are Under. Bleacher Report is Under. CBS Sports had a best bet and 2 out of 2 both with the Under. Another site was Under. Underdog Network was Over. That is 9 out of 12 bearish, so Arnie is smiling.
The schedule does not provide a lot of health. There are few games this season where the Giants will be favored. Who are the incremental pieces in flux this season that can turn the knob bearish or bullish? Let’s list them:
- Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibs was inconsistent last season. It was anecdotal, but he appeared to feast off of some of the weaker teams and then seemingly disappeared in other games. Schmeelk says that Thibodaux has increased his strength this offseason. He is adding a bull rush to his pass rushing repertoire, and if he has that, it could really help the Defense. Note, that will not necessarily add to his sacks, but it will contain and collapse the pocket more. I like that. It also helps him set the edge in run game and sets up the speed rush later in the game. WE KNOW BURNS and LAWRENCE will be EXCELLENT. The Giants need to have Thibodeaux incrementally provide that difference to the DL. If Thibodeaux is very good, the Giants DL will be great.
- Defensive Secondary in 2nd Half of Season. The first half of the season with a new scheme and a lack of experience WILL BE UGLY. The incremental knob for the season is whether they can play better in the second half of the year. There is a lot of talent. Banks is a 1, Nubin is a 2. Phillips is a 3. We can see these guys round into form. OR, it can happen next year. I do not know. Can this help the team? Or not? I feel pretty confident that 2025 will be a very good story for the Defense. All 3 levels (the DL, LB and Secondary) will come together. Can it possibly come together sooner than that? It depends on who you ask. Realistically, we cannot expect rookies such as Nubin and Phillips to contribute meaningfully. BUT IF THEY DO, it changes the script. So let’s watch if the experience clicks in the second half of the season.
- Daniel Jones. The elephant in the room. Schmeelk points out that Jones has not had a very good WR for his entire career. Nabers is going to draw bracketed coverage over the top. That really helps the QB. The OL should be solid and reliable (checks himself, yes, solid and reliable). It is up to Jones to make this Offense work. Let’s also remember that Jones is still recovering from an ACL tear last November. While his rehab effort should be lauded, no one is going to argue that he is playing at 100%. The main rehab effort will be between Jones ears. Jones will be asked to throw the ball deep to stretch defenses with Nabers, Hyatt, and Slayton. Can he do so with accuracy? Can he THROW WITH ANTICIPATION? Can he process defenses and efficiently make the reads so that the ball is proactively delivered to the right places instead of reactively checked down? Nabers gives Jones new tools. It is up to Jones to make this all work. He has one of the best offensive minds in football, Brian Daboll. No excuses. Get it done.
- John Michael Schmitz. I know what I am getting from Thomas, Eluemunor, Runyan, and Van Roten. They will be solid and dependable. What I do not know is whether JMS is healthy and whether he can make that jump PHYSICALLY in his second season. We know that JMS has the protections down. He understands the offense and can set up the line as a presnap leader. He needs to hold up and simply BLOCK his man. That is the second year advancement this team desperately needs. If that happens, the OL can not only stop being a liability, it can actually (perish the thought!) become an asset.
The Giants first 2 games are winnable versus MIN and WAS. They could be 2-0 or they could be 0-2. I am going to try to not read into those 2 games as much as the Week 3 game at CLE.
There is another element to the football season that is little discussed by the mainstream media, but we here on this NY Giants blog have given it much more attention: injuries. Last year, we believed the new turf would help. It did not. This year, we have Aaron Wellman back, buried in the Ronnie Barnes (when is this man going to retire?) dungeon. Yet we contend that Wellman is a tremendous asset. He cleaned up the mess from 2009-2015 and made this nightmare end. Or so we thought. Wellman left and things slowly deteriorated again. At the end of last season, we noted that Adjusted Games lost would tally to 80+ games, and indeed the number came in at 84. We estimated that the Giants would come in in the bottom 20% of the NFL in injuries (~26/27 out of 32), and they finished 25th out of 32.) I think Wellman will make a difference, although it frankly is not encouraging that he is the second to last person listed on a boondoggle staff of 30 (yes, 30 people). Talk about bloatedness- that is ratio of 1.77 players for every person on the medical/strength team. Maybe they need to hire some Deans from the Universities too. Summary: while it could get worse, we think Wellman can make the injury story improved here in 2024.
How do the known unknowns of Thibodeaux, Defensive Secondary, Daniel Jones, and JMS do? If we get 0 for 4, the Giants are easily Under 6.5 wins (Vegas) and probably finish with 4-5 wins. If they get 1 of 4, the Giants are still probably at ~6 wins. If the Giants can get 2 of those 4 to hit (most likely JMS and Thibodeaux), then the Giants get to 7 wins. Where it gets really interesting is if the Giants can get Jones and/or the Secondary to play well. That is the path to a winning season. If the Giants were to somehow get all 4, they go to the playoffs, which is something no one (including myself) is predicting. Yet we see the things that are needed: on the job experience from the young Secondary, and Jones leveraging a better OL + strong (yes, Wonder, strong) WR room. We know what guys like Thomas, Lawrence and Burns will give us. It is up to Jones, Thibodeaux, JMS and the Secondary to determine if this is a painful rebuild or a competitive year.