New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones faces what many are calling a “make-or-break” season in 2021. It will be his third year under center, his second in the same offensive system and the first with legitimate playmakers around him.
Fair or unfair, Jones will have to take a significant leap forward in his development or risk being replaced in the 2022 NFL draft.
Currently, projections for Jones are all over the map. Some Las Vegas oddsmakers aren’t expecting much, while others have offered more bloated projections as part of their prop bets.
One such prop bet comes via the over/under for passing yards. The line for Jones is currently set at 3,800.5, which Pro Football Focus, using their data and projections, says he will go way over. They also believe that should be considered one of the NFL’s “best bets” at quarterback.
DANIEL JONES OVER 3800.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Saquon Barkley is back from injury, which means no team added more to its skill position room than the Giants. The splashy free agent signing of Kenny Golladay gives Daniel Jones a receiver capable of leading the position in receiving yards. Everyone is now aware of Golladay’s contested-catch ability, as he’s generated the sixth-best contested catch rate percentage since entering the league in 2017. Separation is always a concern, but given that Golladay is 14th in deep ball percentage, his low open-target percentage is justified by his high average target depth.
Golladay looks like the perfect downfield threat for Jones, who absolutely needs it after throwing past the sticks on just 38% of his attempts last season. That put him in the same range as Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Brees. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has to understand that the Giants’ offense needs to be able to attack with downfield targets. This looks to be the priority given their offseason acquisitions.
New York also plays in what should again be the NFL’s weakest division, with only one truly elite defense in the NFC East. Every secondary unit has an opponent-adjusted coverage grade in the bottom half of the NFL, which should produce plenty of fireworks in inter-division matchups. All the pieces are in place for Jones to take a significant step in Year 3. As such, the best approach is to take Daniel Jones OVER 3800.5 passing yards.
Based on the price adjusted line compared to the PFF projections, Jones has the third-largest differential in the entire league at plus-463.6 (4,264.1 yards passing). Only Tom Brady (plus-468.6) and Tua Tagovailoa (plus-491.6) have larger differentials.
Meanwhile, only Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (over/under of 3950.5 yards passing) is considered as strong a bet at Jones (-115).
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