The 2007 team rose from the ashes of the 2003 collapse
The other day I wrote a piece about the Pro Football Focus re-draft of the 2011 NFL year. That season was notable for the New York Giants because they won the Super Bowl, but their draft that year was disappointing and set the stage for their downfall to come. BBV member Nygs 0439 preferred to look at the bright side of life as a Giants fan:
Courtesy of Big Blue View and Nygs 0439
I thought that was a good idea, because there are some lessons to be learned in how the 2007 Super Bowl Giants were built. There are no direct parallels between the stories of what happened then and what is happening now, but there are some similarities that are worth noting.
Two-minute history: The Giants had gone to the Super Bowl in the 2000 season but been thrashed by the Ravens. They dropped to 7-9 in 2001 but rebounded to 10-6 in 2002. That’s when the trouble began. In the Wild Card Game, they blew a 38-14 lead with 4:27 left in the third quarter in San Francisco, eventually losing 39-38 when a bad snap prevented a potential game-winning field goal attempt.
In 2003, the Giants began 4-4, but injuries struck and they lost their last eight games to finish 4-12. Head coach Jim Fassel was fired, but GM Ernie Accorsi was not. That Giants team was not devoid of talent. It still had Kerry Collins at quarterback and weapons in Tiki Barber, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, and Ike Hilliard, yet it scored only 243 points, third-worst in the NFL. On defense it had a stout defensive line led by Michael Strahan in his prime, yet it gave up 387 points, fourth-worst in the NFL.
People think that things changed when Accorsi swung the draft day deal to get Eli Manning, but Eli was terrible when he finally was put in as starter midway through his rookie season, when the Giants finished 6-10 despite having Kurt Warner, who would later win his second Super Bowl, at quarterback. The Giants, as part of the deal for Eli, had given up their first and fifth round picks in 2005, and they had no seventh round pick either. It looked bleak for them to substantially improve through the draft…yet they got cornerback Corey Webster in Round 2, defensive Justin Tuck in Round 3, and running back Brandon Jacobs in Round 4, as Nygs0439 reminds us. That’s a 75% hit rate despite no first round pick. They also signed free agents Plaxico Burress, Antonio Pierce, and Shaun O’Hara. With modest improvement from Manning, they made the playoffs in 2005, but they were shut out by Carolina 23-0 in the Wild Card Game.
Here’s a summary of the primary players on the Giants roster in 2003, 2005, and 2007:
Data from Pro Football Reference
The players in boldface above are the returning starters from two years earlier, with the number of such starters in parentheses. By 2005, half the offense had been together for at least two years, and by 2007 most of it had been together for at least two years, both skill positions and the offensive line. The defense, though, was being almost totally rebuilt in 2005, and even by 2007 it had less veteran presence than the offense. That’s surprising for a team that was carried at that time mostly by its defense. However, the defense had non-starters who played key roles, such as Tuck, R.W. McQuarters, and Webster.
Compare that to the evolution of the roster of the present Giants team from 2021, the last year of the Joe Judge regime:
Data from Pro Football Reference
Defining “starters” in today’s NFL is more difficult than it was 20 years ago, with 11, 12, and 21 personnel configurations on offense at any given time, 4-3 and 3-4 defensive fronts, nickel and dime secondaries, and rotations within position groups. On top of that, we don’t know yet who is going to start in 2025. So take these as approximations for which players were/should be on the field the most.
What you can see, though, is that the Giants’ offense has almost completely been replaced over four years, with only Darius Slayton and Andrew Thomas remaining. It’s a combination of young players with a few veterans who are new or have only been Giants for a year. The defense is further along, about half of it being players who’ve now played together for at least a year or two…albeit under two very different defensive coordinators.
In other words, the present Giants team is not where the 2007 team was when it gathered at training camp. It’s perhaps a bit closer to where the team was in 2005. Both the offense and defense have only four starters who have played together for multiple years.
What the present does have in common with the team from 20 years ago is apparent draft success. The 2024 draft looks after one season to have been a great success, with Malik Nabers having become an instant star and perhaps four other starters emerging. Likewise, every pick from the 2025 draft seems promising.
It’s taken four years to get to this point from the mess that was left by the Dave Gettleman – Joe Judge era. That’s a tougher task than Accorsi and newly-hired head coach Tom Coughlin faced in 2004, when they had a team with some players who’d started for a Super Bowl team only four years earlier. That team began its season with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback who would eventually make the Hall of Fame as its starter, with a first round replacement waiting in the wings. It had a 6-10 season. The present team will begin its season with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback who may make the Hall of Fame as its starter, with a first round replacement waiting in the wings. A 6-11 or 7-10 season will probably not surprise anyone.
What the team that did win the Super Bowl had, in addition to its starters, was non-starters who did great things in key situations. Look at that list: Kevin Boss, longest play from scrimmage in the Super Bowl; Ahmad Bradshaw, 88-yard run as the snow began to seal the playoff-clinching win in Buffalo; Domenik Hixon, 74-yard kickoff return as the the Giants almost ruined the Patriots perfect season in the last regular season game; McQuarters, end zone interception of Tony Romo to clinch the Divisional Round win in Dallas; Steve Smith, key third-and-12 reception to keep the winning Super Bowl drive alive; Derrick Ward, 215-yard rushing game the next season to clinch home field in the playoffs; Webster, interception in OT in Green Bay to basically get the Giants to the Super Bowl. (H/T to Lawrence Tynes; I didn’t include special teams but he was a pretty key player for two Super Bowl teams too).
That’s the question for the 2025 Giants: Do they now have players who will make big plays at important times to win games? The 2024 Giants were in the thick of it in most of the games they lost, but rarely did anyone make a big play to seal the deal. Not the starters, and not the key reserves. Talent-wise, this Giants roster may not be far off from that of the 2005 team. Time will tell if they have players who step up when games are on the line.