The New York Giants face a crucial Week 7 test as they travel to face the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Under head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants have struggled with offensive consistency throughout the season, particularly in the red zone where their dismal 40.9% conversion rate has plagued scoring drives. That’s the bad news. The good news is that they’re coming off a big win against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.
Is that the catalyst this team needed to get the wheels turning in 2025?
As is always the case, this game begins and ends with New York’s defense, anchored by defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence and edge rusher Brian Burns. They’ll try to contain a Broncos offense that has been opportunistic while averaging 21.3 points per game.
New York Giants vs Denver Broncos Betting Odds
Current betting odds for this Week 7 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Broncos -380 / Giants +300
- Spread: Broncos -7 (-120) / Giants +7 (-115)
- Total (Over/Under): 39.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
The betting market has positioned Denver as heavy home favorites, evident in the -380 moneyline that reflects significant confidence in the Broncos. The spread sits at a crucial 7 points, suggesting oddsmakers expect Denver to win by a touchdown. This is a low total of 39.5 points, indicating sportsbooks anticipate a defensive battle driven by the Giants’ red zone struggles and Denver’s modest offensive output.
Defensive Battle Favors Home Team
This matchup showcases a clear disparity between a competent home squad and a struggling road team, with the betting lines accurately reflecting that gap. The Broncos possess superior red zone efficiency at 64.7% compared to the Giants’ league-worst 40.9%, making them far more dangerous when drives reach scoring position. Denver’s home-field advantage becomes even more pronounced when examining their recent performance at Empower Field.
The most compelling situational trend favoring Denver: The Broncos are 8-1 against the spread (.889) as home favorites over their last nine games. This dominance at home contrasts sharply with New York’s road woes, as the Giants have dropped their last eight games away from MetLife Stadium while going just 1-7 ATS in those contests. Asking this Giants offense to keep pace in Denver’s thin air environment presents a monumental challenge.
The low total aligns with recent trends from both teams. The over has connected in just one of Denver’s last eight games, while their home contests have been even stingier, with the over failing in each of their last four games at Empower Field. The Giants’ offense averaging merely 19.8 points per game supports this under projection.
The Pick: Denver Broncos -7 (-120)
The Pick: Under 39.5 (-105)
Player Props and Anytime Touchdown Picks
The player prop market reflects expectations of limited offensive production. The following table breaks down key props for quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers heading into this defensive battle.
| Player (Team) | Prop | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Props | |||
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | Passing Yards | 175.5 | Over -113 / Under -111 |
| Passing TDs | 0.5 | Over -164 / Under +128 | |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | Passing Yards | 218.5 | Over -112 / Under -112 |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | Over +118 / Under -150 | |
| Rushing Props | Rushing Yards | Anytime TD Odds | |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | 62.5 | -105 | |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 62.5 | +1400 | |
| Cameron Skattebo (NYG) | 52.5 | +105 | |
| Receiving Props | Receiving Yards | Anytime TD Odds | |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 63.5 | +150 | |
| Wan’dale Robinson (NYG) | 44.5 | +350 | |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 32.5 | +285 | |
| Theo Johnson (NYG) | 26.5 | +550 | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 22.5 | +400 | |
| Jalin Hyatt (NYG) | 14.5 | +950 |
Odds via DraftKings as of October 18th.
The prop market clearly favors Denver’s offensive players, with quarterback Bo Nix commanding a significantly higher passing yards line (218.5) compared to Dart’s modest 175.5. The market’s skepticism toward the Giants’ aerial attack is further evidenced by Jalin Hyatt’s microscopic 14.5 receiving yards prop, suggesting big plays will be scarce against Denver’s defense.
For the Giants, running back Cam Skattebo presents their most viable path to the end zone at +105 odds, making him the team’s best anytime touchdown bet. Meanwhile, Wan’dale Robinson’s reception prop sits at 4.5 with heavy juice on the over (-136), indicating he’ll shoulder the burden as Dart’s primary target in what figures to be a high-volume, short-yardage role.
Best Player Prop Bet for Giants vs Broncos
In a game script calling for limited offensive fireworks, targeting volume-based props over yardage milestones provides the clearest path to value. The Giants’ projected offensive struggles should force Dart into a quick-hitting, high-percentage passing approach that heavily features his most reliable target.
The Pick: Wan’dale Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (-136)
Robinson serves as the focal point of New York’s passing attack, and the betting market has responded accordingly. His receptions line represents the highest volume projection on the team, with the juice moving from an opening -102 to -136, signaling sharp money backing a busy afternoon for the slot receiver. With deep threat Hyatt’s receiving prop set at a paltry 14.5 yards, the game plan will center around quick strikes to Robinson. His target share in this game script should easily surpass 4.5 catches, making this a strong volume-based investment.
Team Statistics: Mismatch Analysis
The season-long statistics reveal a clear disparity in situational execution, particularly where games are won and lost. While both teams show similar yardage production, Denver’s efficiency in crucial moments underpins their status as heavy home favorites.
| Statistic | Denver Broncos | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 21.3 | 19.8 |
| Total Yards Per Game | 337.0 | 328.2 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 206.8 | 202.0 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 130.2 | 126.2 |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 36.6% | 39.5% |
| Red Zone Conversion % | 64.7% | 40.9% |
| Turnover Differential | -3 | -3 |
| Defensive Sacks | 30.0 | 13.0 |
The most glaring mismatch emerges in red zone execution, where the Broncos convert 64.7% of their scoring opportunities compared to the Giants’ league-worst 40.9%. This efficiency gap explains Denver’s superior scoring output despite nearly identical yardage totals. New York’s inability to finish drives represents their most critical weakness heading into this altitude environment.
Defensively, the Broncos’ pass rush dominance creates another significant advantage. Their 30 sacks more than double the Giants’ total of 13, presenting a serious threat to a Giants offensive line that must protect rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. This relentless pressure should disrupt New York’s rhythm while potentially creating short fields for Denver’s opportunistic offense. The turnover differential slightly favors Denver (+4 vs +3), but the Broncos’ ability to generate quarterback pressure suggests they’ll create more takeaway opportunities in this matchup.
Giants vs Broncos Injury Report and Betting Impact
The health situations heading into Week 7 present contrasting fortunes, with New York significantly compromised by 14 players on their injury report compared to Denver’s relatively clean bill of health. The Giants’ injuries concentrate at crucial offensive positions, potentially crippling their game plan against Denver’s aggressive defense.
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Fantasy/Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | WR | Hamstring | out | Major loss for vertical passing game. Absence funnels more targets to Wan’dale Robinson, strengthening his reception prop over. |
| John Michael Schmitz Jr. | C | Concussion | out | Backup center against 30-sack defense creates disaster scenario. Severely impacts Giants’ protection and ball movement. |
| Jalin Hyatt | WR | Ankle | Limited at Friday practice | Combined with Slayton’s status, further depletes big-play ability. His 14.5 receiving yards prop reflects this concern. |
| Swayze Bozeman | LB | Ankle | out | Starting linebacker absence weakens run defense, potentially creating lanes for J.K. Dobbins. |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | LB | Hamstring | out | Another linebacker depth blow, impacting ability to contain Denver’s rushing attack. |
| Paulson Adebo | CB | Shoulder | Limited at Friday practice | Limited starting corner creates opportunities for Courtland Sutton in downfield situations. |
| Jonah Elliss | OLB | Shoulder | out | Rotational Denver defender. Minimal impact on deep, effective pass-rushing unit. |
New York’s offensive line issue begins with starting center John Michael Schmitz Jr., who remains in concussion protocol after missing practice. Facing Denver’s 30-sack defense with a backup center represents a tough scenario for protecting Jaxson Dart and establishing any offensive rhythm.
The receiving corps faces additional devastation with Darius Slayton (hamstring) unable to practice and Hyatt (ankle) operating at limited capacity. These absences would render the Giants’ passing attack one-dimensional, further supporting the under on team totals while boosting Wan’dale Robinson’s target projection. Denver’s comparative health advantage, with key defenders like Alex Singleton and Dre Greenlaw ready to go, positions them perfectly to exploit New York’s compromised offensive infrastructure.
disclaimer: artificial intelligence aided in creation of this preview
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