A look at the key variables for fantasy for each NFL team, Part II
Welcome to Part II of my look at the biggest question facing each NFL team, from a fantasy perspective. Last week I tackled the AFC, and today I’ll delve into the NFC.
I’ll repeat what I said in last week’s column: I think that identifying the key questions to ask is an important first step in fantasy draft prep. As a drafter, I want to try to understand the biggest variables that might impact player and team performance. That can help shape my thinking, and I can do my analysis from there.
Any fantasy stats or rankings shown are for Half Point PPR, are on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis, and don’t include the final week of the season. ADPs are current, but obviously they’re going to change a lot between now and when the bulk of drafts happen in season-long redraft leagues.
You can link to all of my preseason fantasy content here.
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NFC East
Philadelphia – Will the Eagles be as run-heavy as they were in 2024? Philly has one of the NFL’s most skilled WR duos, but their fantasy upside could again be capped by the offense. In 2023, with the Eagles’ secondary regularly getting torched, A.J. Brown (14.8 FPPG) and DeVonta Smith (11.7 FPPG) finished as the WR8 and WR19, respectively. The Eagles used their first two draft picks in 2024 on defensive backs, and the defense was much better. Philadelphia regularly got out to big leads and pounded the ball, and their run rate of 56.3% was the highest in the league, as were their 621 rushing attempts.
Through the end of the 2024 fantasy regular season (Week 14), Brown was the WR13 and Smith was outside the Top-30 wide receivers (Smith went off in the fantasy playoffs and got himself inside the Top-20 WRs for the full year). Brown had almost two fewer targets per game in 2024 vs. 2023, and Smith also went down slightly. You get where I’m going. It’s hard to get too excited about paying up for WRs that averaged 7.3 and 6.8 targets per game last year, respectively.
Washington – What does 29-year-old Deebo Samuel have left in the tank? In terms of name recognition, Washington adding Deebo to the offense was one of the bigger moves this past offseason. But how consequential will it be? Deebo was the WR3 in 2021, but in the ensuing years he has never reached the same rushing or receiving levels as he did in that magical season. He’s also battled multiple injuries and illnesses and seems to be on a clear decline. But how sharp is the decline, and could he still be a difference-maker and YAC merchant in the right system? The Commanders didn’t have a lot at WR last season after Terry McLaurin. A healthy and effective Deebo could be huge for phenom Jayden Daniels in year two in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
Dallas — What kind of running back rotation can we expect? Dallas has had issues running the ball ever since that last bang-bang season of Zeke and Pollard (2022), and they figure to throw the ball a ton again with Dak Prescott in 2025. Still, this could be a very high-scoring offense, with plenty of easy goal-line TDs up for grabs. But all of the backs are new. How will the opportunities be divided up between castoffs Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, and speedy rookie Jaydon Blue? There could be real value if you pick the right one.
New York Giants — I’m tempted to go with the fairly obvious question of how many games each quarterback ends up starting (or put another way, how long until Russell Wilson gives way to rookie Jaxson Dart), but I don’t think that’s really going to impact where Malik Nabers or any other pass catchers get drafted. So I’ll stick with where I went for Dallas, as this is another team with three backs in the mix. Tyrone Tracy impressed as a rookie, but the team added human pinball Cam Skattebo with the 105th pick in the 2025 draft, and Devin Singletary (a Brian Daboll favorite) is also still there. New York’s offense should be better in 2025, but barring injuries, will any of the running backs be worth starting on a weekly basis, even as a Flex option?
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NFC North
Detroit — Will the offense lose a beat without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson? The Lions have been Top-4 in the NFL in total offense for three years running, and they’ve been a fantasy funhouse throughout that run, with studs at multiple positions. Johnson deservedly gets a lot of credit for that, and for his work with Jared Goff. Johnson was the hottest head coach name for two offseasons running, and this time he left, to become head coach for the division rival Bears. The Lions also lost the anchor of their offensive line, as center Frank Ragnow retired. Will these changes matter all that much? Hmm. Throw in that the Lions had a ludicrous number of injuries to their starting defense in 2024, and I think it’s natural to expect at least some regression for the offense as a whole in 2025. But how much? The talent is still there.
Minnesota — What can we expect from J.J. McCarthy in his “first” season? If I had done this exercise last year, I would’ve asked a similar question about Sam Darnold. We all saw how that worked out – splendidly! Minnesota has everything a young quarterback needs to thrive: Outstanding weapons, a solid O-line, and excellent coaching. They also have a very good defense, so he won’t need to play hero ball all the time. Playing home games indoors is also a plus. Obviously, there’s a big downstream effect from McCarthy to the rest of the fantasy assets here, which are among some of the best, plus McCarthy himself could be a steal and especially as a QB2 in Superflex leagues. But last year notwithstanding, the history of QBs in their first year as a starter generally isn’t a good one for fantasy.
Green Bay — What do you do with this receiver corps in fantasy? This has become a perennial dilemma for fantasy managers. Jordan Love can be prolific, but for at least the third year in a row, it’s a very crowded wide receiver and tight end situation that’s hard to handicap. Green Bay hasn’t had a clear WR1 since Davante Adams left town a few years ago, and last year their highest finish at WR was Jayden Reed at WR23. While they clearly have talented pass catchers, I’m open to suggestions on how to rank them. Rinse and repeat.
Chicago — How much will a total culture change matter for Caleb Williams and his development? Fine, I’m writing about Ben Johnson again, and I’m aware that I could also ask some very good questions about the roles and rotations of Chicago’s backs, receivers, and tight ends. But it all starts with the second-year quarterback who was drafted to lead a franchise turnaround. 2024 was the year of the rookie QB, but the first one taken in the 2024 draft missed the party. Leadership, body language, coaching, offensive line problems, holding the ball too long, and more were recurring issues for Williams.
Enter Johnson and a new staff. The skill position group has enough talent for Williams to succeed, and with Johnson on board Chicago’s entire offense should be better for fantasy in 2025. But that’s assuming Williams gets it.
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NFC South
Tampa Bay — Can Chris Godwin pick up where he left off? The Bucs used a first round pick on Ohio State’s all-time leading WR, Emeka Egbuka, a year after they took Jalen McMillan in Round 3. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a terrific duo, but they aren’t getting any younger, so restocking the fridge makes sense. Godwin was leading the NFL in receptions and was the WR2 in fantasy when he went down with a dislocated ankle in Week 7. He should be good to go to start the season, and he even got a new contract, but will the Bucs mix in the young receivers more this season? With offensive coordinator Liam Coen having moved on to the Jaguars, this is another offense that could look a little different in 2025. In any case, Godwin and the two young receivers are a little hard to project at the moment.
Atlanta — Is Michael Penix ready and able to take this offense on a ride? Penix started three games at the end of the 2024 regular season, with mixed results but with some real promise shown and especially his connection with budding star WR Drake London, who’s climbing draft boards and is likely to settle in as an early-to-mid second-round pick. London was the WR1 across Penix’s three starts (Weeks 16-18). I could ask a question about TE Kyle Pitts, but I just can’t go there anymore. The Falcons are the only team in NFL history to use a Top-10 pick in four consecutive drafts on a QB, RB, WR, and TE, which they did from 2021-2024. So, an offensive explosion in 2025 wouldn’t be that big of a surprise and especially if their defense is again sub-par. I wish the 2024 sample size had been just a little bit bigger, but I like a gamble on Penix this season, ideally as your second quarterback.
Carolina — Will the real Bryce Young please stand up? OK, that’s not a dig at Young’s height, and if you want to answer “he’s already standing”, fine. Anyway, Baker Mayfield isn’t the only quarterback in this division who seemed headed for a career as a backup, only to turn things around. The parallels don’t stop there, as both players are small in stature for the position, are former No. 1 overall picks, and Dave Canales was prominently involved in coaching both turnarounds. Young got his starting job back last year when backup Andy Dalton got hurt, and he was a changed player. He was the QB6 from Week 12 through Week 18 last season.
The Panthers set a record in 2024 with 534 points allowed, and while they’ve tried to improve their defense, Young and the offense around him should get into their fair share of shootouts. More good news: The team added WR Tet McMillan with the eighth pick in the 2025 draft, so Young will have more weaponry at his disposal. If Young can play like he did down the stretch last season, the Panthers, who’ve been a wasteland at QB and WR the last couple of seasons, could be a surprising source of fantasy points in 2025.
New Orleans — How big of a train wreck will the Saints be in 2025? Who ‘dat gonna beat ‘dem Saints? Anyone and everyone, probably. This team is projected to have the lowest win total in 2025 (tied with several teams, at 5.5), and after looking at their roster and specifically their quarterbacjk room, I’ll take the under. It just feels like a bottom-out year for a team that’s been kicking the can down cap hell road over and over, and now the bill is due. I’m projecting the Saints to be the lowest scoring team in the NFL, and I don’t want any part of it. Even dump-off maven Alvin Kamara scares me, as I wonder how long the Saints will rely heavily on him at age 30, with younger players to evaluate in a season that’s likely to get away from them in a hurry.
Bad teams can be good sources of fantasy points, but I just don’t see that for this team, with a roster full of holes, a WR1 with a frightening concussion history, and first and foremost, three completely unproven quarterbacks that weren’t especially strong prospects when they came out of college.
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NFC West
Los Angeles Rams — Is this the year that Kyren Williams gives way? Williams has defied the odds and remained a productive workhorse for two seasons, despite his small size and with the Rams drafting backs who could challenge him. His efficiency dropped last season but he still had almost 350 touches and found the end zone 16 times. The newest challenger is Jarquez Hunter, a fourth rounder out of Auburn who joins second year man Blake Corum behind Williams on the depth chart. Williams could again be a great value if he’s a volume and goal-line king, or you could end up cursing yourself for burning a second or third round pick on him if the younger backs start eating his lunch.
Seattle — Was Sam Darnold’s 2024 season a fluke? It’s a legitimate question if you look at his entire career. The final two games of last season weren’t pretty, after a nearly flawless season in Kevin O’Connell’s system. Seattle doesn’t have anything close to the weapons, the offensive line, or the offensive coaching that Darnold enjoyed with the Vikings, so it would be foolish to expect the same numbers. Seattle’s 1-2 punch at WR for much of the 2020s is gone, although Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a breakout star in 2024 and should be Darnold’s new best friend.
Arizona — How good is Marvin Harrison, Jr.? Harrison is on a short list of players who stayed mostly healthy in 2024, yet burned fantasy managers the most. He was overhyped and his ADP was way too steep (mid- to late-second round), and that’s one call I got right last season. He finished outside the Top-30 WRs, at just 9.4 FPPG, and only had two weeks with more than 15 fantasy points. No bueno, at his cost, and several rookie wide receivers outshone him. Harrison put on some muscle this offseason, and we’ll see what he can do in his second season with Kyler Murray. His current ADP sits somewhere in the fourth round, so at least he’s cheaper, but maybe not by enough.
San Francisco — Did I deliberately save the best question for last? Nope. This is a natural crescendo. I listed all eight divisions in the order that ESPN (and most other sites) lists them when they present NFL standings, and in each division I then went from first to last place in 2024 standings. That process, and not my own devious doings, landed the 49ers at Team No. 32. THE most consequential fantasy question for me this season is whether Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy and handle his normal workload. OK, maybe that’s two questions. But come on. CMC broke fantasy football in 2023 (and not for the first time, either), was the consensus overall No. 1 pick last season, and then he scorched those who drafted him. He scored just 40 fantasy points (total), and appeared in only four games, thanks to mysterious lower leg ailments that the team wasn’t exactly forthcoming about.
He’s also now 29, which is at or near the end of the road for high-end production for many (but not all) RBs. And with the NBA playoffs fresh on our minds, the words “calf” and “achilles” are rightly pretty scary. Kyle Shanahan can still run an elite scheme for RBs, and CMC probably has the widest range of outcomes of any player this season. Right now his ADP sits around the 1-2 turn, but that will move as we learn more about his health this summer. If there’s one player you want to handcuff (or handcuff-steal), it’s McCaffrey.
32 teams, 32 questions! That’s a wrap. I’ll be back soon with rankings and tiers, and other draft preparation content, so keep it right here.