A look at the key variables for fantasy for every NFL team, Part I
The NFL has 32 teams, and as we head into each new season, every one of those teams faces a slew of questions. That’s true from a pure football standpoint, and it’s also true from a fantasy perspective. Quarterback questions often dominate the landscape, because so much hinges on them. Who will be the Colts’ starting QB? Does Aaron Rodgers have anything left? Can Michael Penix sustain what he showed as a rookie in a small sample size? Have the Patriots done enough to help Drake Maye succeed in year two? Will a major culture change in Chicago turn things around for Caleb Williams? Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? Was Sam Darnold’s 2024 season a fluke? You get the idea.
If we knew the answers to these and other pivotal questions, we’d ace all of our fantasy drafts and win all of our leagues. Sadly, we don’t. And – spoiler alert – any fantasy analyst who tells you that he or she has all the answers is blowing smoke. The best we can do is synthesize what we know and make educated predictions.
With that said, I do think that identifying the key questions to ask is an important first step in fantasy draft prep. As a drafter, I want to understand the biggest variables that might impact player and team performance. That can help shape my thinking, and I can do my analysis from there.
So today I’ll try to present the most consequential question we should be asking about each NFL team, from a fantasy standpoint. Check that, I’m only going to ask that for 16 teams today. It’s a big league, so I’m splitting this exercise into two parts. Today is Part 1: The AFC.
Any fantasy stats or rankings shown are for Half Point PPR, are on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis, and don’t include the final week of the season. ADPs are current, but obviously they’re going to change a lot.
You can link to all of my preseason fantasy content here.
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AFC East
Buffalo – Which Bills pass-catchers will be start-worthy on a weekly basis? Khalil Shakir can probably be a reliable WR2 most weeks, but I don’t think his upside is all that strong. Keon Coleman? Dalton Kincaid? Neither of these young players did much last season. Could Josh Palmer or Elijah Moore break out with a fresh start? Josh Allen puts up monster fantasy points every season but since Stefon Diggs left (and really, for the last half-season before he did), that hasn’t led to great production from any of the wide receivers or tight ends. Bonus question – Can James Cook come anywhere close to the 18 TDs he scored last season, with two other backs perhaps more prominently in the mix, and Allen continuing to operate as the goal-line back?
Miami – Can Tua stay healthy? I’m tempted to ask if 31 year-old Tyreek Hill is cooked, but like everyone else on this offense, his success is inexorably tied to the ability of an injury-prone quarterback with a troubling concussion history to stay upright. This is THE question for Miami. Devon Achane was the overall RB1 over the 11 games Tua played last season, and barely playable in those he missed. Hill also had starkly different numbers with and without Tua, although he was underwhelming (and especially for him) in both cases. Miami might be a train-wreck this season, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be a fantasy funhouse. Bad defense means the offense has to play catch-up, and say what you want about Tua, but he can make it work in Mike McDaniel’s quick-hit offense. He can only do that if he’s on the field, and Zach Wilson would likely bring things to a grinding halt.
NY Jets – Will Breece Hall reassert himself as a legit fantasy star and workhorse RB1? After Christian McCaffrey, Hall was the back who burnt the most fantasy owners last year, as he came off the board in the first eight picks in most drafts, but finished as the RB18. Rookie Braelon Allen ate into his usage and was effective, the Jets offense was stagnant at times, and Hall just never showed up as the star we expected. Justin Fields has generally not been great for his starting RB (for fantasy), as he vultures some of the rushing TDs and doesn’t throw to his backs at that high of a rate. Hall’s current ADP is RB13 (overall No. 36). This team figures to run it a lot, and that price could be a steal.
New England – Are there any WRs that will be factors in fantasy? Last year, the answer was a resounding no. That was also the case in 2023. New England has had among the worst wide receiver groups in the NFL for several years running now (I hear you, Panthers fans, calm down and I’ll get to you next column). They’ve seemingly missed on every rookie WR they’ve taken in the early rounds since the turn of the millennium, and that includes Ja’Lynn Polk last season. They’ve added 31-year old Stefon Diggs, coming off a torn ACL, and they’re excited about speedy Washington State rookie Kyle Williams, who they took in the third round. Surrounding promising second-year quarterback Drake Maye with more talent (and beefing up the O-line) were big priorities this off-season.
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AFC North
Baltimore – Who will be the No. 1 WR and No. 1 1 TE for Lamar Jackson? Logic and history say I’m a dummy for asking – it’s got to be Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, right? Well, maybe, but Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely both flashed big-play ability at times last year and could be breakout stars if they get the opportunity, in a dynamic offense that features a truly terrifying 1-2 rushing attack that opens up great downfield passing opportunities. Andrews started slow last season but ended up leading all tight ends with 11 TDs, while Flowers was “just OK” in his second season (74-1,059-4). For the moment I favor the two secondary players for value, at their much cheaper ADPs. Bateman quietly scored nine TDs last season, on just 45 receptions.
Pittsburgh – I really hate talking about Aaron Rodgers, but I think the top question has to be whether at age 41 he can at long last give the Steelers something they haven’t had in at least five seasons – a competent thrower with a big and accurate arm who can stay poised, deliver the ball to all areas of the field, and keep defenses honest.
Cincinnati – Is Chase Brown’s insane volume from the second half of 2024 going to repeat? When Zack Moss was healthy, the backfield was a committee, with Moss slightly in the lead. After Moss went down in the Bengals’ eighth game, the team put it all on Brown. Moss is healthy (as of now) to start 2025, and Brown’s ADP is early Round 3. That’s a value vs. his production over the second half of last season, but pricey if he’s in any kind of real timeshare. I do think Cincinnati will again have a bad enough defense that the offense should be prolific across the board.
Cleveland – Who is the starting quarterback? It will probably end up that the answer is multiple players including one or two rookies, so really I’m asking how many games they each will start, and when. Right now, I think it’s pretty hard to project totals for Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku (who have all had some brilliant stretches over the last two seasons) without knowing who the QB is, and if he can run the offense competently and get them the ball consistently.
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AFC South
Houston – Who is the No. 2 option in the passing game? I’m not too worried about Nick Chubb eating into Joe Mixon’s workload – not yet, anyway. I think C.J. Stroud is probably a mid-range QB2 with upside, and I don’t have major questions about him. But I can’t recall a team with this many bodies after the clear WR1, and there could be some decent value to be found. My money is on rookie Jayden Higgins, but they also brought in Christian Kirk, drafted Higgins’ college teammate Jaylin Noel, and have at least three other wide receivers who could make the roster and play a decent amount. Tank Dell is likely to miss the entire season as he rehabs his knee, but it’s a big crowd at WR nonetheless.
Indianapolis – This one’s pretty easy, and I mentioned it in the lead-in. How many starts will each of Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson get? This is a big question not only for if/when to draft Richardson, who has the bigger upside of the two if he can win and keep the job, but there’s also a downstream impact on the backs, receivers and tight ends as well, as Jones would probably be a little better for them.
Jacksonville – No team in the AFC presents more fantasy questions at the moment, in my opinion. So I’ll lead with the most fun one: How is prized rookie Travis Hunter going to be used? I’m dying to know the answer, as we haven’t seen a true two-way player in the NFL in decades. It’s also relevant for fantasy and especially in IDP leagues, where Hunter could be a cheat code if he’s going to play a decent percentage of defensive snaps but is listed as a WR (and will play a lot there too). Hunter is going to be a bit pricey in drafts, for a rookie who is going to be his team’s WR2, and who may not play full-time on offense (current ADP WR 31 (60 overall)). Maybe the best question here though is whether new Head Coach Liam Coen can do for Trevor Lawrence what he did for another former #1 overall pick (Baker Mayfield) as that has broader implications for the whole offense. Oh, and while we’re spending time here in Duval County, I’d also love to know how the three RBs will be deployed.
Tennessee – Can Cam Ward be competent enough as a rookie to support the offensive playmakers? Ward will likely be the NFL’s only Day 1 rookie quarterback starter, and while Tennessee’s skill players aren’t high on anyone’s list, they could be attractive bargains at ADP if Ward surprises to the upside, as multiple rookie QBs did a year ago.
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AFC West
Kansas City – Is Patrick Mahomes still Patrick Mahomes? Well, yes, he is, and he’s won three Super Bowls, while taking his team to three straight Super Bowls and seven straight AFC title games. But from a fantasy standpoint, something has changed. In his first five seasons as KC’s starter (2018-2022), Mahomes was the QB1 twice, never finished outside the Top-5 QBs, and never averaged less than 21 FPPG per game. In each of the last two seasons, Mahomes was “only” a borderline Top-10 quarterback and averaged 18.3 and then 18.4 FPPG. That’s fine if you’re coming off the board as the QB10, but not if you’re being taken inside the first five at the position as was the case in both years. Is this decline mostly a product of the defense getting better? Hmmm. Rashee Rice is coming back from a bad knee injury and could face a suspension, but Mahomes should have a decent pass-catching group, and he’s still operating in an Andy Reid offense.
Los Angeles Chargers – How will the backfield touches be divided between Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris? The Chargers took Hampton in the first round, and clearly they’re enamored of him. Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball, and then run it some more, so Hampton seems poised for a very big season. Not so fast. The Chargers also brought in Harris on a one-year, $5.25 million deal (plus incentives), and while he’s not the most exciting or explosive back, he’s the kind of dependable contributor that Harbaugh likes, as evidenced by the fact that he tried so hard to recruit him at Michigan. Harris has never had fewer than 1,000 rushing yards in a season, hasn’t missed a single game in his four-year career, has a 74-catch season on his resume, and already knows how to pass block. I don’t think this is a situation to avoid, but I think both backs will have value, and Hampton (currently the RB17, and overall player 46 in ADP) could be a little pricey.
Denver – Can R.J. Harvey be the guy for Sean Payton? Rookie running backs often disappoint vs. ADP, and a big reason for that is that a lot is put on their plates early, and pass protection is often trusted more to veterans, at least early on. Harvey walks into a promising situation – Javonte Williams is gone, the rest of the running back room is complementary players, and the Sean Payton history with RBs for fantasy is a very good one. Still, I’d love to know what the backfield splits will actually look like in Denver this season, before using a pick around the 4/5 turn (if not earlier) on Harvey.
Las Vegas – Will Ashton Jeanty be a stud RB right away? OK, I’ve got a lot of rookie running back questions in the AFC West, but that’s how these teams drafted. The hype around Jeanty is strong, and his ADP currently sits just inside the Top-10 overall picks. Very few rookie RBs have had that high of an ADP, or been worthy of a pick that high, in the last decade-plus (Saquon Barkley, the RB2 in 2018, and Ezekiel Elliott, the RB3 in 2016, are two who stand out). Jeanty is certainly special, and he walks into a situation with little real competition in what should be an improved offense with stability at QB (Geno Smith). But again, rookie RBs have a steep learning curve and it’s rare for teams to immediately put them in a 3-down workhorse role. Using your first pick in a fantasy draft on any rookie doesn’t happen often, and brings considerable risk.
That’s it for today. I’ll be back soon with the NFC version of this column, and then rankings and more draft preparation content.