The Dolphins may have no choice but to retain quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2026, given the financial ramifications of a release and the presumed absence of a meaningful trade market. Even if that proves to be the case, Tagovailoa’s performance this season has led to his demotion and has forced the ‘Fins to at least contemplate moving on from their 2020 first-rounder.
During his weekly appearance on WSVN Fox 7, prominent NFL agent Drew Rosenhaus (who does not represent Tagovailoa) said he expects the Dolphins to explore a trade-up in the 2026 draft in an effort to land the southpaw’s successor (via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). In that scenario, newly-minted Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza would unsurprisingly be a “likely target,” per Rosenhaus. If Oregon’s Dante Moore elects to turn pro – which would run counter to the most recent reporting on the matter – he would presumably be in consideration as well.
At present, the Giants hold the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. They made signal-caller Jaxson Dart a first-round selection this year, and Dart has performed well enough in his rookie season to justify that choice and to solidify his standing within the organization. As Jackson notes, there has been some speculation from ESPN insider and former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum that Big Blue could draft Mendoza and look to trade Dart if they ultimately secure the No. 1 pick, but if the Giants or the Cam Ward-fronted Titans end up with the top choice, one would imagine either club would seriously consider dealing it to a QB-needy team.
However, the 2-13 Raiders and 2-13 Giants play each other Sunday, and the loser of that game will have the inside track on the top pick. Unlike the Giants, the Raiders do not have a player that resembles a franchise passer on the roster, so they may keep that pick for themselves and use it on a player like Mendoza or Moore. Another obvious barrier to a Dolphins trade-up is the fact that teams like the Jets, Browns, and Cardinals are also likely to consider drafting a QB and are slated to pick ahead of Miami, thus giving them a more valuable first-rounder to offer in a swap.
That said, the Dolphins still could finish with a pick as high as No. 7, and they have a high second-round pick and three third-rounders in 2026. They also control the rights to all of their future first-rounders, and their first-round selection in 2027 – which is projected to boast a deeper QB class – could be a high one, as Jackson posits.
In short, they may have the ammo to do what they tried to do in 2020, when they offered a package of four first-round picks to the Bengals to move up just four spots from the No. 5 pick to No. 1 for the right to select Joe Burrow (although three of those first-rounders were in the 2020 draft). Cincinnati rejected the proposal, and Miami settled for Tagovailoa.
Neither Mendoza nor Moore is the type of prospect that Burrow was, and depending on the results of the last several games of the current season, Miami’s first pick in 2026 may not come until No. 17. If that happens, this type of trade-up speculation would probably be moot. Still, Rosenhaus’ remarks serve as yet another indicator that the ‘Fins no longer believe Tagovailoa is their long-term quarterback.