Maybe
The success rate of NFL quarterbacks drafted in Round 1, defined as becoming at least a solid starter, is below 40% over the past 15 years. Situation always matters. So, has Jaxson Dart landed in a good situation with the New York Giants?
That depends.
In looking at the situations all 14 quarterbacks selected in the 2025 NFL Draft have landed in, Sports Illustrated’s Dan Lyons referred to Dart’s landing spot as “tricky.”
Lyons wrote:
Dart has to be thrilled to be a first-round pick, with a team that wanted him badly enough to jump back into the first to select him. The Giants present a tricky situation for a young quarterback, however, after the failed Daniel Jones experiment has the entire administration’s backs against the wall entering 2025.
The pressure is on coach Brian Daboll (18-32-1 in three seasons) and general manager Joe Schoen to return to the playoffs this year. To that end, they’ve signed a pair of veteran quarterbacks who are expected to be ahead of him on the depth chart: presumptive starter Russell Wilson as well as Jameis Winston. If the Giants play well, Dart is sitting on the bench to develop for the forseeable future. If they don’t, there will be pressure to play him ahead of schedule in ‘25, and it very likely ends in the team bringing in a new coach/GM combo that was not involved in the move to draft him.
Valentine’s View
John Mara keeping Schoen and Daboll, which I thought was the right thing to do, and then being wishy-washy about just how much faith ownership actually had in them, was always going to land the Giants in a tricky spot in 2025.
Mara demanded a better product, as he should have. Going 9-25 over a two-year period is not acceptable. He also was clear that finding a quarterback of the future was the offseason’s primary objective.
Schoen, on paper, has hit the mark of improving the roster. Adding Dart, Daboll’s quarterback of choice in the 2025 draft class, satisfies the second objective.
And yet …
Daboll’s shaky job status does put Dart in a tricky situation. If 2025 doesn’t go well on the field and Daboll loses his job, Dart is dumped into the spin cycle that negatively affected the organization’s ability to get the best out of Daniel Jones.
Dart has landed with an offensive coaching staff that has done the quarterback development thing successfully. Daboll has vast experience with quarterbacks. Daboll and quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney were part of Josh Allen’s development with the Buffalo Bills. Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka played a key role in Kansas City during Patrick Mahomes’ rookie season.
The question is whether or not Daboll will get to see Dart’s development all the way through, and if he does not what impact that might have on Dart’s future.