In the past couple of years, Giants predictions have been fraught with challenges. Variance, aka luck, aka factors beyond our control, aka injuries… have wreaked havoc on these predictions.
I’m going to repeat a few things, so let’s make it as fast and as painless as possible..
Two years ago, Andrew Thomas got hurt on the first series of the first game. The rest of the season was flushed down the toilet.
Last year, the 2-3 Giants were competitive in Week 6 vs CIN and Andrew Thomas got hurt. The rest of the season was flushed down the toilet.
So when I say- TELL ME HOW MANY GAMES ANDREW THOMAS PLAYS AND I’LL TELL YOU HOW THE GIANTS DO – it’s based on – Andrew Thomas.
Oh wait, there’s an asterisk to this asterisk. You see, Thomas also has a foot injury. Foot injuries can end careers. Or not. We haven’t witnessed Thomas practice. We don’t know what week he will suit up to play. So now we are left to guess about the guess..?
The OL has more depth. Mbow is progressing but I wouldn’t bet on him being ready versus 1st stringers just yet. It’s a great story but it doesn’t yield a safety net in (the first half of) his rookie year. I’d be thrilled to be wrong. One observer said there’s zero depth at OL across the NFL. The OL depth got better for the Giants, but not a lot better.
Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you know the Giants have gotten a
- massive upgrade at QB
- fearsome pass rush
- second consecutive solid draft
Now for the list of downers
- Hyatt, JMS, Neal, and Banks are all dubious. Can we get one of these guys to please play consistently at a higher level?
- Who helps Dex in the interior run game? Bueller?
- Andrew Thomas? Andrew Thomas backup?
I normally don’t put a lot of stock in the “strength of schedule.” However, when it’s literally the #1 hardest, even if the carryover is not perfect for each team, it will still translate. Plus, SF is not a 6-11 team. The breaking news that Micah Parsons is shipped out helps an 11-6 Packers loss remain a loss, but yields promise for 1 or even 2 wins vs the 7–10 Cowboys. Indeed, the Giants flipped in Vegas from +110 over 5.5 to -110 over 5.5. That’s not seismic but does indicate a perceived uptick. Those two games vs DAL becoming credible opportunities for wins makes the 5.5 wins hurdle far more accessible. Bears Saints Cowboys Cowboys Raiders Patriots Commanders Chargers (minus Slater) Vikings (JJ?) totals 9 games with a shot at a W, assuming the rest are losses.
I’m not in love with making a prediction but I’m going over. Yes, I’m drinking the Kool Aid. I like the progress of Dart, so I don’t think he’ll be a liability when he’s inserted. In fact, I think there’s a distinct possibility he generates wins on his own. That’s enough to go over.
Two more minor predictions. I like Darius Slayton in fantasy. My track record here is excellent, as I was bullish Barkley in 2023 based on the ACL finally being fully behind him, and I was bullish on the under-over-hyped Nabers in 2024 as being better than advertised. His Over 850 yards was exceeded (1200 yards) despite having 2 games missed and 4 awful QBs. This year, I like Slayton for value. He can have a stat line of 3 catches for 75 yards and a TD. That’s a lot of production from a cheap late rounder.
My final prediction is my most confident. Abdul Carter will be DROY. The way I figure it, at +185 that’s value. Why? In a 3 year sample, he rates to win 2 out of 2 years and the third year he gets hurt and loses because he can’t play (enough games). I’m just saying he imho is a stone cold lock if he plays 17 games. Carter (a) is playing the right defensive position for the award (b) has a ton of help from others (Dex, Burns, Thib) to make it harder to double him, and (c) he has insane skills that only a few veteran NFL players have. The only reason he’s +185 in my opinion is because of a hundred other (‘known unknown’) rookies. I get that. I just think the world is going to be shocked at how good Carter is from Day 1. Those pressures, hurries and sacks will be very visible, making it very hard for him not to win (unless he gets hurt, the only risk in my opinion).
One final note going back to the Parsons trade. Wonder thinks Dallas did very well in the deal. No, he still thinks Jones is a moron, who should’ve gotten the deal done earlier and cheaper. It’s just an NFL hard cap thing… he doesn’t like 45M for EDGE against the cap. He contrasts the NFL hard cap vs soft caps in other sports. And he likes those R1 assets to trade up for a very good 2026 QB class. So he thinks Dallas made out much the better in the deal. For Giants fans we are good with Parsons leaving the Division.
GO GIANTS.