On June 11, I made my first of multiple posts arguing the “bull” case for the Giants in 2023. I could sit and let those discussions do the talking. But since then, it has (for the most part) only gotten better for the Gmen. My outlook is very bullish, certainly against 7.5 wins, and hopefully for postseason.
Let’s qualify the bull case immediately here. On the first play from scrimmage, one of the Offensive Tackles could get hurt and then Waller goes down and the Giants struggle to win 7 or 8 games this season. There is variance in football. Players get hurt. Sometimes you play certain teams at the worst time. There are no locks. I have been wrong before, and I will be wrong again.
Yet, all else equal, the way things are falling out, as long as a few things break well for the Giants, I think this is going to be a very good season. Last year we said it was a rebuilding year, and that is exactly what it was. That the Giants made it to the playoffs and won a playoff game was gravy. The reason why they had that gravy is the same reason why they should be a terrific team this year- coaching.
Let’s go through the reasons why this rates to be a 2023 bull market for Giants fans.
- Coaching. I will not rehash the argument already made about reversion to the mean. I expect the Giants Offensive playbook to be very different this season, which means the coaching advantage will be just as stark, if not more so. Kafka is the nuts. He took spam in 2022 and made it into a michelin meal. What do you think he is going to do this year with so many more weapons? Fireworks.
- Jones. Sleep on this guy all you want, NFL. He is ready. Since June 11, we got to see Jones once on the first drive versus the Panthers. He went 8 for 9 (the lone miss, a drop by Waller) and went through the defense like a hot knife through butter. Oh, and he did that without Saquon Barkley in the backfield. Last year, my fantasy value pick was Saquon Barkley. This year it is Jones. He has so many mouths that he can feed, that I do not expect any of them in particular to have an enormous season because collectively the Offense will have a Ginormous season. When you think of Barkley, Waller, Campbell, Hodgins, Bellinger, Hyatt, Slayton, Shepard (/Beasley when Shep gets hurt), Robinson… ANY of these guys can have a monster day. Jones will have the monster season.
- Evan Neal. This is a question mark, but Wonder thinks Neal will be fine this season. While I am cautiously optimistic, that is good enough for me to think he will be improved.
- 12 personnel. Gronk says it is unstoppable. The only thing better is for the OL to be sound and for there to be a competent Offensive Coordinator. Assuming the OL is healthy, we should have both. Hence, Kafka and Jones together can be unstoppable.
- New turf. Not a huge difference maker, but if the new MetLife turf is as player-friendly as we are hearing, that will reduce injuries and help the Giants in 2023.
- Isaiah Simmons. No, he is not The Deliver. But he was not here on June 11, and Wink will add him to blitz packages plus use him to cover TEs. He played Kittle twice last year. If the Giants get some more pressure and better help vs TEs, that should make the Defense better than I expected.
- Xavier McKinney. Think of this as Part II to Isaiah Simmons. If Simmons helps more in the box and can take a TE assignment, it makes it easier for McKinney to be the ball-hawking Free Safety we have seen in the past. Remember, it was McKinney who made the final play, tackling Hockenson to sew up the first playoff victory in 11 years. Assuming Simmons can cover a TE like Hockenson, that leaves McKinney free to do so many other things… like make impact plays.
- Azeez Ojulari. No one, I repeat, no one, is talking about this guy. Last year, everyone had big hopes and he was an injury bust. This year, no one is talking about him and he spent the offseason doing yoga and flexibility training. I’m in.
- Jalin Hyatt. When I wrote the June 11th piece, Hyatt hadn’t (a) scored a TD in preseason (b) blown by Sauce Gardner, and (c) gotten held by Gardner twice on the same play. He’s going to be a handful for Defenses. Hyatt was interviewed by Jordan Raanan on the beat writer’s podcast. Hyatt knows his place, he knows his job, and the biggest thing I heard was his respect for Jones. It was eye opening to Hyatt how the QB is the hardest working guy on this team, studying so much film after everyone else is long gone from the facility. It’s really important to have a WR who respects his QB. It’s far more than that. This rookie is learning. It will enable him to be in a position to make (possibly significant) contributions in 2023. I don’t expect him to get a lot of snaps at the beginning of the season, yet if I’m right his snap count will continue to mount as the season progresses. I’ll leave you with one thought on optics- if the pass was lead properly and he scores a TD, or Gardner gets called for the penalty, there would be more media attention. Gardner can talk all the trash he wants but he and the rest of the NFL saw trouble.
- Kayvon Thibodeaux. Wonder says 12-13 sacks and that he is “going to be a beast this year.” Go.
- Leonard Williams. Schneier is very excited about what a healthy Williams will be able to do this year.
- Culture. This team is playing with buy-in and a belief in each other.
If the Giants Defensive Line is healthy, it can be literally the best in the NFL. How are you going to stop Dexter Lawrence, a 13 sack Thib, a healthy Williams, a sack artist in Ojulari, and an impact blitzer in Simmons? I count as many as 6 players who will be able to make impact plays on Defense on a consistent basis. A pass rush makes the job of rookies like Banks and Hawkins easier, because they won’t have to worry about 7 step drops and deep routes as much. Wink will scheme. If one of the two rookies is having trouble, he can blitz from that side (remember in 2000 with John Fox and CB Dave Thomas?).
Andrew Thomas, Evan Neal and Darren Waller need to stay healthy. With that foundation, the offense is going to be an electric light show. Yes, I am as worried as you are about lack of OL depth. That is why I must qualify the opinion. Assuming the Giants get ~15+ games from those guys, the Giants can win anywhere from 10 to 12 games. If the Giants are hurt, and things break badly, I see them 7-10. If the season plays out the way I think it can with a juggernaut offense, 12-5 is very realistic. I see a dynamic offense with Jones and Kafka taking apart defenses. Stay healthy and win. Very bullish.
SUMMARY
RISK (troubling depth exposed by a lot of injuries): 7-10
MARKET (Vegas Win total): 7.5-9.5
OPINION (Monster Offense + manageable injuries): 12-5