The Huskies need two more wins for a second-straight Final Four appearance
UConn is two wins away from reaching the Final Four in back-to-back years for the first time in program history. The Huskies are within striking distance of being the first school to repeat as national champions since Florida did so in 2006-07.
The sportsbooks seem to like the Huskies’ chances. Our friends at DraftKings have UConn as 12-point favorites Thursday night against San Diego State, the largest favorite of any Sweet 16 matchup. DraftKings also has the Huskies as the favorites to win the East Region and the national title at -230 and +210 respectively.
With UConn so close to making program history, let’s take a look at why (and why not) the Huskies will make it to Phoenix next weekend.
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Why UConn will make the Final Four
The team has the talent
UConn is the top overall seed in this tournament for a reason. The Huskies are Big East regular season and tournament champions. They are No. 1 in KenPom. They have an All-American in Tristen Newton and two future lottery picks in Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan. All three are playing some of their best basketball ever as of late. Few, if any teams can match the firepower this team has on both ends.
And the experience, too
Contrary to almost every other team looking to get to Phoenix, the mental and physical grind of reaching a Final Four is uncharted waters. Not for Dan Hurley and the Huskies. More than half of this team cut the nets down in Houston less than a year ago. Hurley has prepared this team to deal with the stresses that this pressure cooker of a tournament provides. If things get tough, the moment won’t be too big for them.
Why UConn won’t make it to the Final Four
Jaedon LeDee goes Kemba mode
If there is one player that could single-handedly end UConn’s repeat chances, it’s SDSU’s Jaedon LeDee. The 6-foot-9 LeDee is a force down low and can beat defenders off the dribble. He’s exactly the type of player who gives UConn fits, similar to how Kadary Richmond powered Seton Hall past the Huskies earlier this year in the Big East opener. Castle, Alex Karaban and the two bigs will have to stay out of foul trouble and try and keep LeDee, a 21.5 point per game scorer, in check. If he goes nuclear, the Huskies’ season will be over.
The threes don’t fall (again)
UConn was just 3-22 from three against Northwestern, but it didn’t matter because the Huskies shot a tournament record 81.2 percent inside the arc. As impressive as it is, that’s not super sustainable. If the likes of Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban and Tristen Newton can’t get it going from deep, UConn will struggle with an SDSU squad that can be streaky from three in their own right and likely wouldn’t be able to outduel Illinois’ high powered offense if UConn reaches the Elite 8. If the Huskies beat the Aztecs but take on Iowa State, a lack of 3-point shooting would allow the Cyclones to pack the paint with their elite defense and make things brutal for the likes of Newton, Clingan and Castle.