The Huskies will take on the winner of 2-seed Iowa State and 3-seed Illinois if they beat San Diego State.
UConn men’s basketball’s quest to claim a repeat title has started off on a high note. The Huskies have stormed their way through the NCAA Tournament by obliterating 16-seed Stetson and handling 9-seed Northwestern with ease.
It’s still a long road to get back to Phoenix, and it continues with a 2023 title game rematch against San Diego State in the Sweet Sixteen Thursday. The Huskies are still a relatively heavy favorite but anything can happen in March. UConn will still need to be at the top of its game to defeat a tough and physical Aztecs team that is hungry for revenge.
If UConn is able to secure victory, it will either face 2-seed Iowa State (29-7, 13-5 Big 12) or 3-seed Illinois (28-8, 14-6 Big Ten). Both teams won their conference tournaments but are built in polar opposite ways. Here’s a look at what UConn may be matched up against on Saturday.
Iowa State Cyclones
Season Recap
College basketball nerds are in for a treat if UConn and Iowa State make it to the Elite Eight as both teams led by Naismith Coach of the Year candidates revitalizing programs once left for dead that don’t rely an endless supply of five-star recruits.
Iowa State didn’t win a game in the Big 12 in 2020-2021. Out went Steve Prohm and in stepped TJ Otzelberger — once an assistant in Ames, Iowa under Fred Hoiberg — who in three years has compiled a 70-34 record and three top 10-ranked defenses according to KenPom. He’s created a no-nonsense program that has energized a rabid fan base, all with players who fit a certain mold. Sound familiar?
The Cyclones were picked to finish seventh in the Big 12 and were unranked in the preseason. They cracked the AP Top 25 by mid-January and have stuck in the polls since then. They climbed as high as No. 4 in the final poll, culminating in a seventh conference tournament championship after a 69-41 detonation of Houston. The buzz was so palpable that many bracketologists projected Iowa State to land a 1-seed on Selection Sunday.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Otzelberger reset expectations through a terrifying defense. Iowa State now boasts the top-ranked defense on KenPom and ranks fourth in the country in scoring defense. Its absurd 25.7 percent turnover rate is the calling card, featuring post-up traps and suffocating halfcourt ball pressure. The Cyclones forced 13 turnovers against Washington State in the second round, holding the Cougars to a season-low 56 points.
The head of the snake is 6-foot-1 sophomore Tamin Lipsey, who averages 2.7 steals per game and has six games with at least three. The all-Big 12 first-teamer averages a Tristen Newton-like 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, while he is a top 10 player per Evan Miya’s BPM rating. He took his 3-point percentage from 20.0 percent as a freshman to 39.3 percent this year. Backcourt mate Keshon Gilbert is the team’s leading scorer at 13.7 points per game, but the 6-foot-4 junior also averages two steals a game. Both guards are lightning quick and are at their best attacking downhill.
Despite the solid statistics from that pair, the Cyclones struggle to manufacture easy baskets and are prone to scoring lulls. Their offense is No. 49 according to KenPom and is the second-worst among the Sweet Sixteen. Teams with a cadre of ball handlers that can pass out of traps can dull Iowa State’s greatest weapons—turnover margin and a grinding pace.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Season Recap
It’s been a very successful seventh season in Champaign for head coach Brad Underwood, who has reached the first Sweet Sixteen of his career, and Illinois’ first since 2005. The Illini slightly exceeded expectations in 2023-24, taking a fourth place Big Ten preseason poll selection to a second-place finish before they laid claim to conference tournament title.
This team has been battle-tested, facing the likes of Florid Atlantic, Marquette and Tennessee in the non-conference, combined with a strong Big Ten slate. Illinois wasn’t able to take down Purdue in either attempt – but did lay waste to a majority of the Big Ten beating Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa two times apiece. The Illini caught a break with Duquesne’s upset of BYU in the first round, only having to get through the 11-seed Dukes and 14-seed Morehead State to reach this point, but Brad Underwood has his team firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Strengths and Weaknesses
These are glaringly obvious for the Illini, who boast KenPom’s No. 1 offense and the No. 91 defense. The hard part is slowing them down, which not one team has been able to do over the last month. Illinois has won six straight and has averaged 86 points per game during this stretch, though the most efficient defense they faced in that span in Duquesne, at No. 31. How it handles Iowa State and its stingy defense could be very telling for how it would approach UConn.
The conductor of this lethal offensive attack is third team All-American Terrance Shannon Jr., who is among the best wing scorers in the country. The former Texas Tech role player is scorching as of late, averaging 30.5 points in his last six outings. He’s a legitimate three-level scorer that utilizes his powerful 6-foot-6, 225-pound frame to bully defenders or shoot over them. Stephon Castle would likely draw the near impossible assignment of slowing down Shannon, and while the freshman has been a lockdown perimeter defender for the Huskies, this would be his toughest challenge yet.
This Illinois team is so dangerous because of how many guys they can run their offense through. There’s Marcus Domask, a grad transfer from Southern Illinois who has easily translated his Missouri Valley production to the Big Ten. Domask is a master at creating angles for himself and teammates in the midrange and around the hoop. The biggest wrinkle in their offense is Coleman Hawkins, a 6-foot-10 stretch four that actually brings the ball up on occasion and is a great outside shooter (37.8 percent on 3-pointers). Illinois doesn’t have a traditional point guard but it’s also probably one of the reasons why it is so good on offense. Shannon, Domask, and Hawkins all split that role and it makes it extremely difficult for teams to defend and plan for.
While this team is known for their finesse, the Illini still hit the offensive glass hard, ranking No. 16 in offensive rebounding rate, which has helped extend possessions and keep an efficient offense. Ty Rodgers is an uber-athletic wing-forward combo that lives in the paint – he hasn’t attempted a single 3-pointer all season and Dain Dainja has size and skill around the basket.
Illinois is one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers and experiences countless breakdowns because of a lack of rotations and athleticism. As good as Domask is offensively, he gets picked on quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball. Similar to how teams would attack Karaban last season, UConn must expose this shortcoming of the Illini’s defensive rotation.
The contrast in playing styles between these two potential opponents could not be more stark. Iowa State is a grind-it-out defensive squad that pressures a ton, which has helped them employ the top defense in the nation. Illinois is the finesse offensive-minded team that can run its sets through multiple players and create problems for its opponents. Each present a unique challenge that UConn must be prepared for if it can take down San Diego State.