It’s a 2023 national title game rematch for the Huskies and Aztecs in Boston.
After rolling through Brooklyn with a pair of easy wins against 16-seed Stetson and 9-seed Northwestern, the UConn men’s basketball team is two games away from reaching the Final Four for a second consecutive season. But first, the Huskies will have to take on 5-seed San Diego State in the Sweet Sixteen in a rematch of last year’s national championship game.
Overall, the Aztecs are built eerily similar to last year’s team that made a surprise run to the Final Four in Houston. San Diego State relies on a stout defense that ranks eighth in defensive efficiency to keep things close and a good-enough offense (53rd in offensive efficiency) led by third-team All-American Jaedon LeDee to pull out wins. Much like last year, the Aztecs thrive on defending the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot just 30.8 percent on 3-pointers this season.
To get to Boston, the Aztecs survived a near-upset from 12-seed UAB before handling 13-seed Yale 85-57.
TV: TBS/TruTV
Radio: UConn Sports Network
Odds: UConn -11, over/under 136 (Odds via DraftKings)
Location: TD Garden — Boston, Massachusetts
KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 73, San Diego State 65 (77 percent win probability)
Series History
UConn and San Diego State have met twice in the past, both times in the NCAA Tournament. Kemba Walker helped the Huskies past Kawhi Leonard and the Aztecs in 2011 in the Sweet Sixteen on the way to UConn’s third national title. The Huskies also won in last year’s national championship game, winning 76-59 in Houston for UConn’s fifth national championship.
What to Watch For
Can Clingan keep it going?
Donovan Clingan has been UConn’s best player overall through the first two games by dominating both ends of the court. Against Northwestern, Clingan scored 14 points and added 14 rebounds and eight blocks while only committing one foul.
Offensively, Clingan has shown impressive agility as a screener and roller for easy lobs. He’s also demonstrated the ability to score 1-on-1 in the post, especially against smaller opponents. With San Diego State rarely trotting out a true big — 6-foot-10 freshman Miles Heide may get some extended minutes Thursday night — UConn may go to Clingan early and often to exploit a significant size difference down low.
With Clingan lurking in the paint on defense, opponents are constantly hesitant to get shots up for fear of having it rejected. While Clingan isn’t always swatting eight shots away per game, he constantly alters others, sometimes simply by just being out on the court. With LeDee, a skilled 6-foot-9 slasher for the Aztecs, doing most of the scoring for his team, the plan will likely be for LeDee to attack Clingan in the paint early and try to get the Bristol big man in foul trouble. If Clingan can avoid some early whistles and stay off the bench, the Huskies will have a much better chance of playing on Saturday.
Who can stop Jaedon LeDee?
After coming off the bench last year, LeDee has stepped up and become one of the best players in the country and the heart and soul of the Aztecs’ offense. Out of all players remaining in the NCAA Tournament, LeDee is second behind Purdue star Zach Edey in usage rate, per KenPom. He leads the team with 21.5 points per game on the season and 27.8 points across the Mountain West and NCAA tournaments.
LeDee mostly operates off the ball and can get downhill as a slasher effectively, where he excels at drawing fouls. While he is not prominent 3-point threat, he has a solid midrange game and will pick and choose his moments to stretch the floor. He’s 17-for-39 (43 percent) as a 3-point shooter this year.
At 6-foot-9, he presents a serious matchup problem for most teams, UConn included. Stephon Castle will likely be asked to try and contain LeDee despite giving up some size due to LeDee’s speed and athleticism. Alex Karaban and Samson Johnson will likely have to spell Castle for stretches and try and keep the TCU transfer from getting into a good rhythm.
Win the 3-point battle
After shooting 37.5 percent on 3-pointers against Stetson, the Huskies were ice cold against Northwestern from deep. UConn shot just 3-for-22 (13.6 percent) from beyond the arc in the win on Sunday, partially buoyed by a late shot from walk-on Andre Johnson when the game was out of hand. It was an uncharacteristic performance from the Huskies, who shoot just over 36 percent on deep shots on the season.
Meanwhile, San Diego State was lights out in the win over Yale. While the Aztecs normally shoot about 31 percent on 3-pointers, they shot 13-for-27 (48.1 percent) from deep in the win over Yale. While San Diego State is not, on average, a great shooting team, it has shot over 40 percent from deep in six different games so far this season. If they can do it again against the Huskies, the Aztecs will have the chance to pull off the upset. Outside of LeDee, who has only taken 39 attempts, San Diego State has no shooters that are 35 percent or better from deep.
Darion Trammell (4-for-7 on 3-pointers against Yale, 32.4 percent on the season) and 2023 Final Four hero Lamont Butler (2-for-3 against Yale, 31.6 percent this season) are two Aztecs to watch from deep. If either continue to stay hot from last weekend, the offense will have enough juice to give UConn a quality fight.
Revenge game
UConn and San Diego State are not rivals, but the Aztecs surely are thinking about how the Huskies squashed its title hopes at NRG Stadium in Houston. For a team that retained a significant chunk of contributors from last year’s squad, there has to be a chip on the shoulder for Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs. For the second year in a row when San Diego Sttae has to face the Huskies, UConn is being thought of as a dominant, seemingly unstoppable force. The Aztecs sure would love to get revenge and play spoiler, especially in front of a crowd that will likely be filled with plenty of Huskies fans.