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Syracuse starts its Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament journey on Tuesday in Charlotte, North Carolina. SU’s regular season was full of inconsistencies, and it finished with its most conference losses (13) in program history. The Orange spent most of the year toward the bottom of the ACC standings, barely scraping by into the postseason tournaments with late-season wins over NC State and Virginia.
SU could’ve been more successful if it weren’t for three second-half collapses to Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and SMU. With those defeats, the Orange earned the 14th seed — the second-lowest in the field — and will take on 11th-seeded Florida State in the first round of the ACC Tournament.
The Seminoles defeated the Orange 90-74 on Jan. 4 in Tallahassee. That contest marked J.J. Starling’s first game back after a seven-game absence due to a wrist injury. FSU’s been average throughout this season and finished the season losing four out of its last five games.
Here’s how our beat writers feel 14th-seeded Syracuse (13-18, 7-13 Atlantic Coast) will fare against 11th-seeded Florida State (17-14, 8-12 Atlantic Coast) in the first round of the ACC Tournament:
Zak Wolf (26-5)
End of the road
Syracuse 79, Florida State 85
This is the end of the road for Syracuse. The Orange have won just two games away from the JMA Wireless Dome this season, and that won’t change Tuesday. Syracuse has played slightly better in the past couple of weeks, but I’m not buying too much into home wins over NC State and Virginia. The Wolfpack and Cavaliers are two of the bottom-three offenses in the ACC, while Florida State presents a more potent attack, averaging 74.9 points per game.
The biggest problem the Seminoles pose for Syracuse is their size and length. The Orange don’t boast much height, while FSU’s starting lineup consists of just one player under 6-foot-5. I think this will lead to FSU being disruptive on the defensive end, despite Syracuse’s offense not being much of a problem this season. The key matchup comes in the paint between Malique Ewin and Eddie Lampkin Jr. Ewin is more mobile than Lampkin and will give him trouble on both ends.
Syracuse does have enough firepower to keep up with FSU even if Lampkin is held quiet, though its porous defense will be problematic again. Against any competent offense, Syracuse hasn’t consistently gotten stops this season, especially in the second half. Defense wins championships, and Syracuse’s defense is far from championship-worthy.
Expectations are already low for Syracuse heading into this week, and there’s no reason to get your hopes up for this one.
Aiden Stepansky (26-5)
Expect the unexpected
Syracuse 77, Florida State 73
I’m not going to sit here and act like Syracuse will go on some miraculous run like NC State last season. But facing Florida State marks a very winnable game for the Orange, and I think they’ll find a way to come out on top.
While SU’s defense has been faulty all season, its last two games of the regular season showed signs of progress. Jamir Watkins is very much a potent threat Syracuse’s guards will need to slow, but outside of Watkins, FSU doesn’t have much to show for it offensively. The Seminoles shoot just 31.9% from 3 and turn the ball over 12.4 times per game, both ranking in the bottom three of the ACC.
Yes, this hasn’t been the season anyone inside or outside the program envisioned. I’m fully aware that SU hasn’t won back-to-back games since early January. But the reality is this team is playing more like an eight or nine seed than the 14. It’s easy to play the “what if” game, but if the Orange didn’t blow a few of these conference games, they would be in position for a bye. Syracuse will lean on Lampkin largely, living and dying with his inside presence. I see Lampkin doing just enough to give Adrian Autry his first conference tournament victory and SU’s first since 2022.
Justin Girshon (25-6)
Taps
Syracuse 75, Florida State 80
Well, this season of Syracuse men’s basketball will surely go in the history books. Not the good kind of history, of course, but it’ll definitely stand out among the Orange’s worst seasons of all time when it’s all said and done.
To give SU some credit, though, it’s playing its best basketball of the season despite splitting its final four regular season games. Syracuse’s No. 112 ranking on KenPom is its highest of the calendar year, and senior transfers Lampkin and Jaquan Carlos are definitely playing their best basketball of the season.
Unfortunately for those two, I see Tuesday being both of their final college basketball games. Amid Starling’s recent struggles, it’s safe to say Watkins — who finished the season playing some of his best basketball, on the other hand — is the best player on the court.
Like many of the Orange’s recent games, I see this one again coming down to the wire. And during that time, I think Watkins will take over, leading the Seminoles to a narrow win and ending SU’s nightmare season.
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