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For the third straight road game, Syracuse fell apart in the second half. The latest rendition was a 77-75 loss to SMU, where the Orange had a 12-point lead with 10 minutes left. Three days earlier against Virginia Tech, SU blew a 13-point advantage in the second half, eventually falling in overtime. Before that, in Pittsburgh, Syracuse let an 11-point advantage slip away.
On Tuesday, Syracuse led for 35 minutes and by as many as 12 points in the second half. With five minutes left, Jyáre Davis extended Syracuse’s lead to eight but that was its last made field goal. SMU then chipped away, and Keon Ambrose-Hylton tapped in a Boopie Miller miss with two seconds left to complete the Mustangs’ comeback.
SU now closes out the regular season against Virginia, a team it hasn’t beaten since 2020. The Cavaliers have had a down season after head coach Tony Bennett retired in October 2024, sitting in the middle of the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.
Here’s how our beat writers feel Syracuse (12-18, 6-13 ACC) will fare in its final regular season game against Virginia (15-15, 8-11 ACC):
Zak Wolf (25-5)
Get it over with
Syracuse 72, Virginia 68
Syracuse’s collapses this season have been nothing short of spectacular. With each passing game, its capitulations become more predictable. Tuesday night’s loss to SMU was no different. Everyone knew the Orange would eventually lose control; it was only a matter of when. Still, I’m picking them against Virginia this weekend. This boils down to the simple fact this is a home game. All of Syracuse’s collapses have come on the road, and it’s fared OK at home this year, at least against weaker teams.
UVA is the definition of mediocre, and its brand of basketball bodes well for SU. The Cavaliers boast the worst offense in the ACC, scoring 64.8 points per game. Even though Syracuse’s defense is arguably worse, giving up 78.7 points, I believe it can actually stop the Cavaliers’ slow-paced offense. The Orange accomplished that against NC State last week, holding the Wolfpack to 60 points. This will play out in a similar fashion.
It’s hard for Syracuse to perform much worse in the second half than it has in the past two games, and it’ll finally close out a game. J.J. Starling, who’s shot 8-of-31 over his past two games, will come alive when Syracuse needs him. Syracuse hasn’t struggled to score the ball at any point this season, which is why it’ll get the job done this time.
Aiden Stepansky (25-5)
On to Charlotte
Syracuse 76, Virginia 71
To me, Syracuse’s late-game collapse against the Mustangs felt different from its past blunders. The mere fact the Orange were in a position to lead by 12 against SMU was an encouraging sign, giving me confidence they can take down Virginia to cap a turbulent regular season on the right note.
The Cavaliers are coming off a strong win over Florida State and showed a sense to bunker down on defense, allowing just 67.6 points over the last three games. But, UVA’s biggest weakness caters to SU’s poor defense. Virginia has just 64.8 points per game through 30 games, the 355th-worst rank in the country entering Wednesday. Yes, the Orange recently faced VT, and the Hokies exploded for their most points of the season after entering as one of the worst offensive teams in the country.
But I see this one going differently. SU held down SMU throughout the contest and limited an explosive offense with Miller. Virginia’s lackluster offense, despite being potent from 3, can be stopped if Syracuse plays well enough through the second half, which I see it doing just enough to squeak out a victory. Watch out, though. We could see this matchup just three days later in Charlotte if the seeding plays out.
Justin Girshon (24-6)
No collapse this time
Syracuse 77, Virginia 75
After taking a gander at Syracuse’s results leading into its final regular season game, I counted nearly 10 games it could’ve won. Even if SU won about half of those games, it would be much closer to the 19-win team I expected in the preseason. But, that’s not the reality.
Instead, the reality is Syracuse has been defined by collapses. Across their last three losses, the Orange have had a double-digit point lead but couldn’t hold on. I’d even argue SU has played really well in these losses, the problem is the five-minute stretches where it doesn’t play well outweigh all of the success.
Luckily for Syracuse, it ends the regular season against a weak Virginia team at home. While I fear the Cavaliers’ 3-point prowess could give SU fits, this is an ideal matchup to build confidence heading into the ACC Tournament.
Long gone are the dominant Bennett days, as UVA is ranked No. 103 in the NET Rankings and on KenPom. While the Cavaliers are probably the better team than the Orange on a neutral court, I see them falling just short on the road. Starling will bounce back from an abysmal performance Tuesday, leading SU to a narrow home win.
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