St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: Xavier

The Red Storm seek to win their first Quad 1 game of the season when they face the Musketeers in Cincinnati

The Red Storm are in a good position to reach the NCAA tournament midway through their season, but they need to start gaining ground after not winning a single Quad 1 game so far. They have a great chance of putting themselves ahead of the eight ball when they face Xavier on Tuesday night. The Musketeers lost three of their first four Big East games and are coming off a 69-63 road defeat against Georgetown last Friday.

Game information

Who: St. John’s Red Storm (12-3, 3-1 Big East) vs. Xavier Musketeers (9-6, 1-3 Big East)

When: Tuesday, January 7, 2025, 6:30 p.m.

Where: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, Ohio

TV: FS1

Radio: Learfield

Series History: Xavier leads 17-7. St. John’s split last season’s series and are 4-3 in the last seven meetings after losing the previous twelve matchups.

Injury news

Brady Dunlap (hand) is still out after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his left thumb. According to Rick Pitino, the four-to-six-week recovery prognosis hasn’t changed since Dunlap was ruled out last December, and the sophomore wing received his first follow-up exam on Friday.

What to Watch for in the Storm

St. John’s is going to stumble into a not-awful three-point shooting performance one of these days, right? The Johnnies are shooting a miserable 15.5% from deep through four Big East games and have not made more than 30% of their threes in any one of those games. There’s only one direction to go after their 1-of-21 three-point performance against Butler, but St. John’s needs to figure out their three-point troubles quickly.

One player who needs to sort out his shooting struggles is Kadary Richmond. Of course, he produced in the clutch as of late, and he is having the best two-point shooting season of his career (50%), but his three-point and free-throw shooting numbers are especially worrying, even for the slashing guard. Richmond is shooting 17.6% from three and has not made a triple since facing Baylor on November 21, and he’s shooting 44.2% from the free throw line (19-of-43).

Deivon Smith only played 29 minutes because of foul trouble in Saturday’s win over Butler, and with how he’s playing lately, St. John’s will need him to play with more discipline because he can take control of the game. Smith is averaging 13.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.2 steals in his last five games.

Scouting the Musketeers

Zach Freemantle leads Xavier in his fifth and final season of college basketball after missing last season with a foot injury. He also recently recovered from a knee injury, which kept him out for three games. The six-foot-nine big man is averaging a team-high 16.8 points and 7.7 rebounds on 53% shooting from the field and 30.3% from three. Freemantle continues to improve as a playmaker, posting 2.4 assists per game and a career-best 17.4% assist percentage.

Six-foot-four junior guard Ryan Conwell appears to be Xavier’s next great scoring guard. Playing for his third school after stints with South Florida and Indiana State, Conwell averages 16.3 points on 45.7% from the field and 42.9% from three, while taking 7.5 attempts from deep per game.

Point guard Dayvion McKnight is a nice playmaker for the Musketeers, averaging 10.9 points and 4.7 assists per game. According to KenPom, the Shelbyville, Kentucky native currently ranks in the top 150 nationally in assist percentage with a 27.1% dime rate. McKnight can also create his own shot and is a dependable scorer, making 45.3% from the field and 38.7% from three.

Like R.J. Luis, Dailyn Swain is an athletic slashing wing who stands at 6-foot-7. The former four-star recruit from Columbus, Ohio is averaging 9.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting 54.2% from the field and 33.3% from three. Swain has scored in double-figures in four of his last five games, recording a double-double versus Marquette in this stretch.

Furman transfer Marcus Foster rounds out the starting five as a long-range marksman, scoring 8.9 points per game and making 43.1% of three-pointers this season. Foster’s production is rising in Big East play, averaging 12.5 points in four conference games.

Dante Maddox, Jr. is a boom-or-bust scorer off the bench. The Toledo transfer averages 6.3 points and only shoots 34.6% from the field and a smidge better from three at 34.7%. Maddox scored three or fewer points in eight games, but he put up a season-high 22 points and drilled five threes to give UConn a scare in Xavier’s Big East opener.

Jerome Hunter is also playing in his fifth season of college basketball after cardiac issues forced him to miss the entire 2023-24 season. The gritty fan favorite is averaging 7.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, shooting 50% from the field, and is tied with Swain for a team-best 2.9% block percentage.

Keys to the game

Defend the triple – It’s clear that St. John’s should make more threes. It also shouldn’t be said that they should stiffen up on defense and keep the 12th-best three-point shooting team in the country from getting hot on Tuesday.

Create extra possessions – If St. John’s cannot make their shots, they need to create extra chances to score by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers.

Play through Zuby – R.J. Luis has delivered double-digit scoring in all but one game this season, but St. John’s should look towards their most efficient scorer, Zuby Ejiofor, during cold stretches. Ejiofor leads all starters in true shooting percentage by a wide margin (63.6%, with Luis at 53.0%), and he now looks confident as the nightly starting center.

Prediction

St. John’s needs to win one of these Quad 1 games. However, they are in a deep scoring funk, and even though Xavier is doing so well for themselves, the Red Storm will take another frustrating close loss as the Musketeers have a nice long-range shooting night. Xavier wins, 75-72.