St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: Villanova

The Red Storm host the red-hot Wildcats in a measuring stick game at the Garden

For the first time in what feels like ages, St. John’s and Villanova will face off as strong, evenly-matched opponents. Both teams won four of their first five Big East games, and each claimed an impressive Quad 1 win in their last outings. The Red Storm defeated Xavier on the road by double-digits, while the Wildcats outlasted No. 9 UConn in a dramatic two-point home victory.

Game information

Who: St. John’s Red Storm (13-3, 4-1 Big East) vs. Villanova Wildcats (11-5, 4-1 Big East)

When: Saturday, January 11, 2025, 7:00 p.m.

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

TV: CBS Sports Network

Radio: Learfield

Tickets: Ticketmaster

Series History: Villanova leads, 66-65. Last year, St. John’s swept the season series for the first time since 1992-93.

Injury news

After being sidelined with a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his left hand, Zach Braziller of the New York Post is reporting that Dunlap is also dealing with an abdominal tear, which could force him to use a medical redshirt and end his sophomore season. Dunlap missed his last five games and has averaged 5.7 points through ten games played this season.

Jaiden Glover (wrist) is unlikely to play for a third straight game. According to Zach Braziller, the freshman guard has a bone bruise.

What to Watch for in the Storm

You don’t need us to tell you that the Red Storm’s shooting has been disgusting of late, but a look at their numbers paints an uglier picture. In their last three games, St. John’s is shooting 5-of-46 from deep (10.9%), which is the worst in the country during this stretch, according to CBB Analytics. St. John’s is also shooting relatively poorly from two-point range, making 46.0% of their inside-the-arc looks to rank in the bottom 40 nationally.

Yet, the Red Storm are nearly undefeated in this three-game stretch, only losing by one point to Creighton because of a vaunted defense, lightning-quick pace, and an excellent ability to create extra possessions.

Over their last three, St. John’s attempted 73.3 field goals per game (ranking first in the nation in this stretch), scored 16.9 fastbreak points per game (ninth nationally), snagged 15.7 offensive rebounds per game (third nationally), boasts an 89.1 defensive rating (also third nationally), and have a 15.4% steal percentage (again, third nationally). What is also underrated is St. John’s’ ball security during this stretch, only turning over the ball at a lean 10.2% rate (first in the nation).

If St. John’s can be conventionally below-average at three-point shooting and not extraordinarily ineffective from deep while maintaining their physical, defensive identity, they can become a dangerous team.

Scouting the Wildcats

This year’s Villanova has been a tale of two seasons. The Wildcats started 3-4, which included embarrassing losses to Columbia, local rival Saint Joseph’s, and a Virginia team in the middle of a transition year. After a 76-75 neutral site loss to Maryland on November 24 in which the Wildcats blew a 12-point halftime lead, Kyle Neptune’s seat was hotter than the surface of Mercury. However, Villanova has regrouped and is positioned to challenge for an NCAA tournament bid.

Since the Maryland debacle, Villanova has won eight of their last nine games, including a 68-60 victory over ranked Cincinnati that saw the Wildcats command most of the game, a 13-point comeback win over Butler in which ‘Nova ended the game on a 22-1 run, and a nail-biting 68-66 win over No. 9 UConn on Wednesday night. According to BartTorvik, Villanova is playing like a top-25 team over this hot streak, ranking second in adjusted offensive efficiency, masking a spongy 174th-ranked defense.

The man who is mainly responsible for this turnaround? Fifth-year center Eric Dixon, who is playing at an All-American level.

The burly 6-foot-8, 260-pound stretch center’s game is predicated on a Julius Randle-esque mixture of power, scoring touch, and playmaking finesse. Dixon leads the country in scoring with 25.7 points per game and has only scored less than twenty points once this season: a 16-point night in a blowout win over Rider.

The Willow Grove, Pennsylvania native is also vying to join the 50-40-90 club: shooting 51.6% from the field, 47.2% from three (eighth in the country), and 86% from the free throw line. Only eleven NCAA Division I men’s basketball players have scored 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three, and 90 percent from the free throw line in a season, and no player has done it since Virginia’s Trey Murphy III in the 2020-21 season, but Dixon has a good chance of entering the exclusive club.

Another reason for Villanova’s turnaround is their transformation from a disjointed collection of players to an effective heliocentric offense built around Eric Dixon that boasts good complementary scorers who take advantage of the attention Dixon draws. The Wildcats have three other players who score in double-figures on average, and they also have three players who shoot 38% or better from deep on at least 3.8 attempts or more per game.

One of those players is Miami transfer Wooga Poplar, who averages 14.0 points and 6.8 rebounds and shoots 47.0% from the field, 38.6% from three, and 85.7% from the free-throw line. The Philadelphia native can set the pace for a team that prefers to operate in the half-court by forcing turnovers and scoring on the break.

La Salle transfer Jhamir Brickus is the floor general for Villanova’s offense, averaging 11.1 points and a team-high 5.8 assists per game. The 5-foot-11 Brickus is one of the Big East’s best knockdown shooters, shooting a team-best 50.8% from three on 3.8 attempts per game. Brickus is also a talented ball-handler who can shoot off the bounce with ease, as he boasts one of the best stepback moves in the country.

Senior guard Jordan Longino is a two-way shooter who averages 10.3 points and 1.6 steals per game. Longino is picking up his play over his last five games, averaging 13.4 points, 3.0 assists, and 1.8 steals on 51.2% from the field, 55.0% from three, and 92.3% from the free throw line.

Keys to the game

Nix Dixon – Villanova’s offense runs through Eric Dixon. The Red Storm must hold him in check and not let his on-court gravity pull defenders out of position to open space for Dixon’s teammates.

Control the tempo – Whether Villanova slows the game down to their preference or St. John’s speeds up the game and breaks out in transition can dictate who wins this game.

Don’t settle for bad shots – St. John’s acquitted themselves from some low-percentage shots versus Xavier by keeping the Musketeers cold from three, but those poor possessions can add up in a closely contested game. If they find themselves in a back-and-forth game, the Red Storm must stay patient and run their offense while not settling or contested mid-range jumpers.

Prediction

St. John’s controlled action in their two meetings with Villanova last year, and Kyle Neptune had zero answer for Rick Pitino’s matchup zone. Even though the Red Storm shifted back to man-to-man defense this year, their defensive pressure will disrupt the Wildcats’ offensive rhythm and tilt momentum towards the Red Storm. St. John’s wins 83-78.