St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: Seton Hall

Kadary Richmond makes his return to the Prudential Center for the first and last time as a member of the Red Storm

St. John’s and Seton Hall fans circled the date of Saturday, January 18, 2025 for quite some time and for obvious reasons: it marks Kadary Richmond’s first game at the Prudential Center after he spent three seasons with the Pirates, then switched allegiances to the Red Storm last spring. Even though Seton Hall is slogging through a season from hell in which their first losing campaign in twelve years seems all but inevitable, you can discard the records on Saturday for what should be a very emotional and intense battle between local rivals.

Game information

Who: St. John’s Red Storm (15-3, 6-1 Big East) vs. Seton Hall Pirates (6-11, 1-5 Big East)

When: Saturday, January 18, 2025, 8:00 p.m.

Where: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey

TV: FS1

Radio: Learfield

Tickets: Ticketmaster

Series History: St. John’s leads 63-50. Seton Hall won two of three meetings last season, with the Red Storm defeating the Pirates in the Big East tournament quarterfinal, 91-72.

Injury news

Deivon Smith (shoulder) is unlikely to play in Saturday night’s game versus Seton Hall, according to Rick Pitino. Smith missed Tuesday’s game versus Georgetown after suffering a right shoulder injury last Saturday versus Villanova.

Brady Dunlap is still sidelined with a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and an abdominal tear and has missed his last seven games. Dunlap has averaged 5.7 points through ten games played this season.

What to Watch for in the Storm

St. John’s has not had a defense this great in generations. After holding Georgetown to a season-low 58 points in their win on Tuesday night, the Red Storm currently boast the 8th-best defense in KenPom adjusted efficiency, their highest ranking defense since Pomeroy first collected data in the 1996-97 season. In Big East games, the Red Storm force turnovers at a conference-best 23.7% rate, are second in two-point percentage allowed (45.5%) and third in three-point percentage allowed (32.2%). They are also among the best in the conference on the glass, sitting first in offensive rebound percentage (37.0%) and second in defensive rebound percentage (73.4%).

Aaron Scott is heating up after a tough cold stretch. Scott scored 2.4 points while shooting a dismal 21.7% from the field and firing 1-of-11 from three across five games between December 17 and January 4. The North Texas transfer has scored in double-figures in three games since this cold spell and is scoring 6-of-14 from three (42.9%) over his last two games. With Deivon Smith expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury, St. John’s needs all of the perimeter shooting they could get, and Scott’s re-discovered scoring touch would be a welcome sight for the Johnnies.

Scouting the Pirates

The 2024-25 season has been a shipwreck for Seton Hall. The Pirates are out to a 6-11 start, which includes terrible losses to Fordham, Hofstra, and Monmouth, and would be sitting dead last in the Big East if it weren’t for a 19-point comeback win over DePaul at home. Much of this season’s futility can be attributed to failing — or being unable — to replace four of the top six scorers from their NIT championship team a season ago (who, of course, had Kadary Richmond as their leading scorer) and being unable to capture enough Big East-caliber talent.

The Pirates are ranked 156th nationally in KenPom (their worst dating back to 1997), 213th in adjusted offense (also their worst dating back to 1997), and a more tolerable 112th in adjusted defense.

The offensive numbers look sloppier when you put them under a microscope. Seton Hall is the 16th-worst two-point shooting team in the country with a 43.8% clip, is in the bottom half nationally in turnover percentage with an 18.3% rate, and shoots 65.9% from the free throw line (37th-worst nationally). Interestingly, they are also a pretty good three-point shooting team, firing 35.9% from deep (69th-best in the nation). As you would expect from a Shaheen Holloway-coached team, they play hard on the glass, ranking in the top 75 nationally in offensive and defensive rebound percentage.

Big East All-Freshman honoree Isaiah Coleman steers the ship on offense, and you can’t go wrong with having a player like him lead your team. Coleman averages 15.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.6 steals, shoots 43.2% from the field, 39.0% from three, and 81.3% from the free throw line, and only has 1.1 turnovers for a number-one option. The six-foot-five shooting guard out of Fredericksburg, Virginia is a sharp shotmaker who can heat up quickly.

Fellow Virginia native and backcourt partner Chaunce Jenkins is a long-range threat, shooting 11.9 points per game and 41.4% from three-point range. The Old Dominion transfer is a factor on the glass, pulling down 4.1 boards per game.

Believe it or not, former Johnny Dylan Addae-Wusu is now running point for Seton Hall and leads the team in assists with 3.1 per game, but he also gives up a team-high 2.0 turnovers per game. Addae-Wusu also averages 9.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and a team-high 1.7 steals on a shaky 34.3% from the field, 31.7% from three, and 61.7% from the free throw line. The fifth-year guard’s status on Saturday night is still uncertain as he missed the Pirates’ last game versus Butler with a foot injury.

Prince Aligbe is a small-ball four standing at six-foot-six and is finding a nice touch of late. The Boston College transfer is averaging 6.5 points and 3.5 rebounds while shooting 43.8% from the field but is averaging 15.7 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 57.6% from the field. The junior forward from Minneapolis, Minnesota is an active defender who sticks his nose in the passing lanes and can guard multiple positions.

Sixth man and guard Scotty Middleton hasn’t made the impressive sophomore leap some fans expected from the former top-50 recruit, but he’s done his job. The Ohio State transfer averages 6.5 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.1 steals and is shooting 48.8% from the field, 43.9% from three, and 75.0% from the free throw line. Standing six-foot-six with a long wingspan, Middleton could become a formidable 3-and-D wing with more time.

Keys to the game

Defend above-the-break – The Pirates are a below-average shooting team in all parts of the court except above-the-break threes, where they shoot 38.4%, which is 5.4% better than the national average from this spot, according to CBBAnalytics.com.

Protect the ball – Seton Hall forces a 20.9% turnover percentage against opponents, according to KenPom, which ranks 43rd nationally. St. John’s has been securing the ball over the last few games, but they can’t relinquish extra possessions to an inferior team and give them a window to steal this game.

Drag Seton Hall into a fast-paced game – Saturday’s game is also a clash of tempos. Seton Hall has a KenPom adjusted tempo of 63.9 (342nd-slowest nationally), while St. John’s has a KenPom adjusted tempo of 70.4 (62nd-fastest nationally). The Red Storm must crank up the pace and force Seton Hall out of their comfort zone.

Prediction

Seton Hall’s offense is steadily improving as the season unfolds, but their defense has regressed in Big East play. The Pirates are the type of team St. John’s should buzzsaw based on their metrics, but the Red Storm’s ugly perimeter shooting in recent games cap their ceiling and their explosiveness. The Red Storm should still prevail convincingly, even without Deivon Smith for a second straight game. St. John’s wins, 78-65.