St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: Providence

The Red Storm look to extend their winning streak to eight games versus the Friars on Retro Day

So much has happened since Zuby Ejiofor’s putback layup lifted St. John’s to a comeback win over Providence a few days before Christmas. Ejiofor’s last-second heroics set the tone for the Johnnies to win nine of their next ten games, match their highest AP poll ranking since 2000, and tie Marquette for first place in the Big East at the midway point of conference play.

Meanwhile, Providence is in must-win mode without the services of Bryce Hopkins, who was ruled out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury after weeks of uncertainty surrounding his status. The Friars enter Saturday afternoon with an 11-10 record (5-5 in the Big East) and need to make up considerable ground in order to enter the NCAA tournament picture.

Game information

Who: No. 15 St. John’s Red Storm (18-3, 9-1 Big East) vs. Providence Friars (11-10, 5-5 Big East)

When: Saturday, February 1, 2025, 12:00 p.m.

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

TV: CBS Sports Network

Radio: Learfield

Tickets: Ticketmaster

Series History: St. John’s leads Providence, 67-58. The Red Storm have won three of the last four meetings and are looking for their first series sweep of the Friars since the 2020-21 season and their first series sweep in front of fans since the 2014-15 season.

Injury news

Deivon Smith missed three of his last four games, including his previous two, due to a bruised shoulder. Head coach Rick Pitino mentioned during Tuesday’s postgame press conference that Smith is healthy enough to play, and it’s only been a matter of the fifth-year guard getting comfortable facing contact with his shoulder.

Brady Dunlap is still sidelined with a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and an abdominal tear and has missed his last ten games. Still, he was seen participating in pre-game shootaround during Tuesday night’s game versus Georgetown. Dunlap has averaged 5.7 points through ten games played this season.

What to Watch for in the Storm

This year’s 2024-25 St. John’s team now stands as their best defense in program history in the KenPom era. The Johnnies hold an 89.1 adjusted defensive efficiency rating as of January 31, beating their next-best rating of 89.3 from their 1998-99 Elite Eight season. Through ten Big East games, only Providence has shot better than 41.5% in a single game versus St. John’s with a 48.1% rate in their December 21 meeting in the Ocean State.

R.J. Luis only has one single-digit scoring game this season: a quiet eight-point performance in a 57-56 loss to Creighton on New Year’s Eve. Luis has been playing like a unanimous All-Big East first-team player since then, averaging 19.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in his last seven games — all were St. John’s wins.

Kadary Richmond is also elevating his play amid the Red Storm’s winning streak, scoring 13.5 points per game and shooting 56.8% from the field in his last four games, compared to only 10.8 points per game and 45.9% shooting over his previous 17 games. Richmond downplayed the idea that Deivon Smith’s absence played a role in his resurgence during Tuesday’s postgame press conference and stated he’s simply playing with more confidence and aggression.

Scouting the Friars

Kim English’s second season in Friartown has not gone to plan. Providence is 11-10 after a disappointing non-conference slate in which they left the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament without a win, then lost to Atlantic 10 teams Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure. The Friars are treading water in a down year for the Big East with a 5-5 record, but they haven’t beaten a KenPom top-100 opponent on the road or any conference opponents inside KenPom’s top 80, and they barely eked out a two-point road win over talent-starved Seton Hall in their last game.

It’s not a mystery that they’re struggling like this when they are missing their best player. Providence’s senior star swingman Bryce Hopkins only played three games before being ruled out for the remainder of the 2024-25 season with a knee injury, averaging 17.0 points and 7.7 rebounds in his three contests played. Hopkins missed most of his junior season after suffering a torn ACL versus Seton Hall in January 2024.

Junior combo guard Jayden Pierre assumes Hopkins’ role as the number-one option, posting 12.9 points, 2.7 assists, and 2.6 rebounds per game while shooting 43.3% from the field, 35.4% from three, and 80.4% from the free throw line. Pierre can drain threes or attack the basket with authority.

Miami transfer Bensley Joseph is a three-and-D threat in the backcourt. The 6-foot-1 senior guard from Massachusetts averages 12.3 points and 3.8 rebounds, plus team highs in assists (2.8) and steals (1.1) per game among qualified players, and shoots a team-best 41.1% from three on 5.1 attempts per game.

Another senior sharpshooter in Providence’s starting five is Chicago State transfer Wesley Cardet. The 6-foot-6 Tallahassee, Florida, native is averaging 9.8 points and 3.6 rebounds on 45.3% shooting, 41.5% from deep, but is only shooting a poor 64.5% from the free throw line. Cardet missed the Friars’ last game versus Seton Hall with a knee injury, so his status for Saturday’s game is uncertain.

Brady Dunlap’s evil twin Ryan Mela is a freshman revelation for the Friars who brings intense physicality on the defense and on the boards. Hailing from Natick, Massachusetts, the 6-foot-6 Mela is averaging 6.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists over his last six games.

Freshman paint protector Oswin Erhunmwunse is still pretty raw, but he’s beginning to round into form in Big East play. In the eight games since becoming a nightly starter on December 31 versus Marquette, Erhunmwunse is averaging 7.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks on 75.8% shooting from the field. The 6-foot-10 center from Nigeria also recorded three or more blocks in six of his last seven games.

Keys to the game

Contain the three for 40 minutes – Jayden Pierre and Bensley Joseph ambushed the Red Storm with three-pointers in the first half of their December 21 meeting, but were held in check after halftime. The Friars aren’t a good team on the road, but their one path to an improbable upset is by draining threes early and often.

Win the board battle – Providence won the rebounding battle in their last meeting with St. John’s, 43-39, but the Red Storm created much of their offense in their 16-point comeback from 18 total offensive rebounds. Ejiofor, Luis, Scott, and co. should win the board battle, especially if Deivon Smith can play on Saturday.

Capitalize on extra possessions – St. John’s mastered the ability to win without three-point shooting, and that’s by creating extra possessions, whether from offensive rebounds or forcing turnovers. If the well runs dry again, they can always fall back on what has put them in this position.

Prediction

St. John’s shouldn’t sweat in Saturday’s game. Providence’s struggles on the road and wildly inconsistent play may be too much for the Friars to overcome against a rock solid St. John’s defense that could get Deivon Smith back. St. John’s wins, 77-65.