St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: New Mexico

The 22nd-ranked Red Storm look to win the Pitino Bowl and remain undefeated on the young season

Much of the build-up for Sunday’s St. John’s vs. New Mexico is — predictably — about the father-son coaching matchup of Rick Pitino and his son Richard. The Pitinos will square off for the fourth time in their careers. The elder Pitino took the first two meetings and the junior Pitino defeated his father in their last matchup.

Buried amidst the family rivalry is a tantalizing non-conference matchup for St. John’s, as they face the reigning Mountain West tournament champion New Mexico Lobos.

Game information

Who: #22 St. John’s Red Storm (3-0) vs. New Mexico Lobos (3-0)

When: Sunday, November 17, 2024, 12:00 p.m.

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

TV: FS1

Radio: Learfield Radio

Tickets: Ticketmaster

Series History: St. John’s won all three previous matchups. The Red Storm won their last meeting with the Lobos, 70-62, on November 20, 1999 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Injury news

No injury news to report for St. John’s.

What to Watch for in the Storm

Like father, like son. Sunday’s game features the two fastest offensive teams in the country. According to KenPom, St. John’s is first in the country with an average possession length of 13.6 seconds, while New Mexico is a tenth-of-a-second slower with 13.7 seconds per possession.

Originally expected to be supporting role players, R.J. Luis, Simeon Wilcher, and Brady Dunlap are the Red Storm’s three leading scorers to begin the season. The trio combined to average 42.3 points per game through three games, collectively shooting 58.1% from the field and 41.9% from deep. The offensive hierarchy is likely to change, but the early scoring production from the returning three is a promising reflection of the Red Storm’s depth.

Zuby Ejiofor is looking to turn a corner after an underwhelming three-game start. The preseason breakout candidate came off the bench in Wednesday’s game versus Wagner and was held to a goose egg in the scoring column at halftime, but woke up in the second half and scored all of his eight points after the break. We might not yet see the same Zuby Ejiofor that put up 27 points and 13 rebounds in October’s exhibition versus Rutgers. Still, a similar performance to his second half versus Wagner over an entire game is more than welcome.

Kadary Richmond isn’t lighting up the scoring column either, only scoring five combined points in his last two games, but he’s positively impacting the game by regularly creating plays on both ends of the floor. Yet, fans are still itching for Richmond to finally take over a game like he routinely did with Seton Hall. It’s only a matter of time until Richmond takes the initiative to attack the basket more.

Scouting the Lobos

New Mexico looks every bit like a contender to win the Mountain West conference title. Through three games, the Lobos are undefeated and already have a notch on their tournament résumé with a 72-64 win over then-number 22nd-ranked UCLA on a neutral court.

Since Richard Pitino arrived in Albuquerque for the 2021-22 season, the Lobos have been in the top 25 nationally in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. So far in 2024-25, they are the fastest team in the nation with 77.3 estimated possessions per 40 minutes.

Junior point guard Donovan Dent is one of the best playmaking guards in the country and the engine for this Lobos offense. Through three games, Dent is averaging 19.0 points, 9.7 assists, and 2.3 steals on 58.8% shooting from the field and 25% from three. He isn’t giveaway-prone for a guard who handles the ball a lot, only having a 17.3% turnover rate last season. If there is a knock to his game, he is not a good free throw shooter (67.8% in his career) and a non-factor on the glass (8.7% total rebound percentage last year).

Another figure in this game with connections to Rick Pitino is forward Nelly Junior Joseph, who played under the elder Pitino for three seasons at Iona before transferring to New Mexico last season. Junior Joseph saw his offensive role slide when making the jump from the MAAC to the MWC, going from 14.9 points to 8.9 points per game, but continued to be a menace in the post by pulling down 8.2 rebounds and averaging 1.4 blocks per game.

Junior Joseph is elevating his play through the start of the new season, recording double-doubles in each of his first two games and coming one rebound short of getting his third in New Mexico’s 100-81 win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. So far, Junior Joseph is averaging 18.0 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 2.0 steals per game.

Mustapha Amzil returns for his second season in Albuquerque and steps into an everyday starting role. So far, Amzil is averaging 11.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game this year, compared to the 6.7 points, 3.5 rebounds and 0.3 blocks he averaged last season. The 6-foot-10 Finnish forward spent his first three years of college basketball at Dayton, putting up 8.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game for the Flyers.

Tru Washington is a tough defensive guard returning for his sophomore year. Washington is averaging 10.0 points and 3.0 steals through three games this year. He still needs to find his shooting stroke, as he only shoots 37% from the field and 30% from three.

Richard Pitino brought in reinforcements after losing multiple important players in the offseason like leading scorer Jaelen House (15.9 ppg in 2023-24), Jamal Mashburn Jr. (14.1 ppg), and JT Toppin (12.4 ppg).

North Texas transfer C.J. Noland will reunite with his former teammate Aaron Scott on Sunday. Noland is averaging 9.3 points and 2.3 steals in three games off the bench this year, but his shot has struggled so far, shooting 26.9% from the field and 18.8% from three.

Serbian international Filip Borvicanin is looking to break through for the Lobos after playing two years with Arizona as a reserve. Borvicanin is averaging 3.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists.

BYU transfer Atiki Ally Atiki will follow Junior Joseph as the first big man off the bench, and he is averaging 4.3 points and 2.3 rebounds in three contests.

It is also worth mentioning that freshman guard Kayde Dotson scored 18 points against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi on 6-of-7 shooting.

Keys to the game

Show more aggression – The only reason why the Wagner game was still a game after halftime was because St. John’s was too passive on offense and on the glass to run away with the game. The Red Storm needs to enter attack mode against their first “real” opponent of the season.

Win the fastbreak battle – As Clark Kellogg would say, both of these teams have “spurtability” — an ability to score a great amount of points in quick succession. At least defensively, St. John’s has shown they can shut down the fastbreak against lesser teams this season, but they’re going to be tested on Sunday. The Red Storm simply need to produce more opportunities on the break than New Mexico

Don’t leave points at the free throw line – St. John’s went 16-of-30 from the free throw line against Wagner. Don’t do it again.

Prediction

This will be a visually appealing game of basketball with skilled playmakers abound. Both offense have the ability to score 80 or 90 points on any given night, but St. John’s has the clear edge on defense thanks to their size and athleticism. St. John’s wins, 83-76.