St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: Marquette

Tuesday night’s matchup with the No. 11 Golden Eagles is the Red Storm’s most important regular season game in over two decades

St. John’s has not played a regular season game with this much importance in more than a generation. The last time a top-15-ranked St. John’s team faced another top-15 team was when the Red Storm faced UConn on January 30, 1999. For context, the writer of this post was only born two more years after this game and graduated from St. John’s in 2023, only knowing mediocre basketball and Wednesday nights at the Big East tournament like many of his Zoomer students and alumni.

The times have changed for the Johnnies. As of Tuesday, St. John’s is ranked 12th nationally and sits alone in first place in the Big East standings at the beginning of February (crazy, right?!?) and will host No. 11 Marquette, who sit one game behind St. John’s in the standings. A win would give the Johnnies the marquee ranked win their resume is begging for, as well as two games of breathing room on the Golden Eagles, but a loss would put the two teams in a tie for first place and make the regular season title race exponentially more interesting.

Game information

Who: No. 12 St. John’s Red Storm (19-3, 10-1 Big East) vs. No. 11 Marquette Golden Eagles (18-4, 9-2 Big East)

When: Tuesday, February 4, 2025, 6:30 p.m.

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

TV: FS1

Radio: Learfield

Tickets: Ticketmaster

Series History: Marquette leads, 29-16. The Golden Eagles have won all six meetings since hiring Shaka Smart before the 2021-22 season.

Injury news

Deivon Smith (shoulder) will be active for Tuesday night’s game. Smith posted three points on 1-of-10 shooting with six assists and three steals off the bench in Saturday’s win over Providence. It is still unclear if Smith will come off the bench for a second straight game or if he will get the starting nod.

According to Kevin Connelly of Storm The Paint, Brady Dunlap underwent season-ending surgery to repair a tear in his abdomen last week. Dunlap also missed time this season with a torn ligament in his thumb. The sophomore guard from California finishes his 2024-25 season with 5.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 0.7 assists while shooting 46.5% from the field, 37.5% from three, and 83.3% from the free throw line in ten games played and two starts.

What to Watch for in the Storm

Zuby Ejiofor’s five-rebound outing versus Providence snapped an 18-game streak of recording seven or more rebounds per game. However, Ejiofor remains the model of consistency in Big East play, scoring in double-figures in all eleven games played and averaging 14.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks while shooting 55.9% from the field.

‘Kooks’ is cooking. Kadary Richmond is averaging 15.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks in his last five games, shooting 60.3% overall and is 3-of-6 from three. Richmond elevated his play in the month of February last year with Seton Hall, averaging 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, so it will be interesting to see if a similar bump in production is in the cards this season.

Scouting the Golden Eagles

The Marquette machine marches on even without Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro. Fourth-year head coach Shaka Smart is proving you do not need to use the transfer portal to find success in such a turbulent time for player movement (yes, Kolek did transfer into the program, but he went from an under-recruited pass-first freshman guard at George Mason to a consensus All-American by the time he graduated). The 2023 AP Coach of the Year crafted the last few Marquette teams from developing high three-stars and four-stars like Kam Jones, David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell, and Chase Ross into incredibly effective players for a Big East contending team.

The Golden Eagles continue to roll in the Smart era with an 18-4 record that includes marquee wins over No. 7 Purdue, No. 18 Maryland, and No. 21 Wisconsin — beating the Boilermakers and Badgers by double-digits on their home court. They hit a pothole with a 77-69 loss to No. 19 UConn on Saturday night in a game that was not as close as the final score implied, but they still sit second in the Big East standings with a 9-2 record.

Remarkably, Marquette’s offense only took a very minor step back despite losing two of the most uniquely impactful playmakers in college basketball in Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro. The Golden Eagles went from 118.2 in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency to (drumroll) a 118.1 rating. How do they virtually remain in the same position a year ago? Those four names mentioned two paragraphs ago all returned instead of pursuing the portal.

Senior guard Kam Jones assumed a score-first role with previous Marquette teams but is now the do-everything offensive engine for the Golden Eagles. Jones is second in the conference in scoring with 19.0 points per game and has scored in double-figures in every game this season, but is also fourth in the conference with 6.2 assists per game. The Cordova, Tennessee native tops the Big East and ranks tenth nationally with an eye-popping 39.1% assist percentage.

Senior wing David Joplin is the perfect two-way roaming defensive weapon for this Marquette team, standing at 6-foot-8. The Milwaukee native is an excellent help defender and can guard fives on the court when needed, averaging 2.2 “stocks” per game — 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks. It also helps that he’s a good slasher and rebounder, averaging 14.5 points and 5.2 rebounds while shooting 55.8% from two.

Stevie Mitchell is a stingy two-way guard who disrupts opposing offenses and effectively guards the point of attack. The 6-foot-2 guard from Reading, Pennsylvania, averages 11.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and leads the Big East with 2.7 steals per game. While not commanding major offensive responsibilities, Mitchell also shoots a very efficient 51.4% from the field and 39.1% from three.

Chase Ross falls in the same archetype as Mitchell. The 6-foot-4 guard from Dallas averages 11.3 points and 2.1 assists, plus ranks third in the Big East with 2.0 steals per game, shooting 47.3% from the field and 37.7% from three on 3.1 attempts per game. Ross was one of the few offensive bright spots in Marquette’s loss to UConn, scoring 19 points with three triples.

After Oso Ighodaro’s departure, Ben Gold steps into the starting center spot for his junior season. The Wellington, New Zealand native doesn’t offer the game-breaking dynamism of Ighodaro, but he can handle the ball and space the floor as a capable three-point shooter. The 6-foot-11 Kiwi averages 7.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks while firing 58.6% from two and 36.9% from three on 4.7 attempts per game.

Keys to the game

Run shooters off the line – Jabri Abdur-Rahim toasted St. John’s with threes because he was given the space early, giving him the confidence to start firing at will. The Red Storm must do a better job of protecting the three-point line, as Marquette boasts several confident long-range shooters.

Protect the ball – Marquette ranks sixth nationally in opponent turnover percentage (23.8%). St. John’s is pretty protective of the ball with a 71st-best turnover rate of 15.8%, but the Golden Eagles’ “havoc” defense could pose problems.

Create more spacing – According to CBB Analytics, St. John’s shot 35.3% or worse from within ten feet of the rim in Saturday’s win to Providence. The Friars were content with clogging the lane against a poor jump-shooting team, and the Red Storm should expect Marquette to do the same. The Johnnies need to find ways to create better spacing on the floor for cuts to the basket or catch-and-shoot opportunities, whether that’s by entering their offensive action quickly or letting Zuby Ejiofor initiate away from the paint more often.

Prediction

Tuesday’s game is the least confident I have been in any of my pre-game prognostications this season. This game could be a coinflip as St. John’s is ranked 16th in KenPom, and Marquette is ranked 19th. The Johnnies have found great success in dragging teams into the mud and drowning them in it, but this is the type of game in which a similarly physical, tougher-than-two-dollar-steak unit like Marquette also flourishes.

Even when Marquette was clearly the better team on paper, these two teams always found themselves in hellacious back-and-forth battles that were only decided by the final possession, and I expect the same here. St. John’s hasn’t proven they can beat top teams like Marquette yet this season, going 0-3 against teams within the top 40 of KenPom. Unfortunately, I don’t believe they will start on Tuesday night as the Golden Eagles will win the turnover battle and make enough baskets to keep themselves out of momentum-switching scoring runs that felled previous St. John’s opponents. Marquette wins, 71-69.