St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: Butler

The Red Storm look to get back on track against the sputtering Bulldogs

The St. John’s men’s basketball team heads home and looks to re-group from a 57-56 road loss to Creighton on New Year’s Eve as they take on the struggling Butler Bulldogs, who are on a six-game losing streak.

Game information

Who: St. John’s Red Storm (11-3) vs. Butler Bulldogs (7-7)

When: Saturday, January 4, 2024, 2:00 p.m.

Where: Carnesecca Arena, Jamaica, New York

TV: FS1

Radio: Learfield

Tickets: Ticketmaster

Series History: St. John’s leads series, 13-11. The Red Storm swept last season’s series and have not lost to Butler at home since 2019.

Injury news

Brady Dunlap (hand) is still out after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his left thumb. According to Rick Pitino, the four-to-six-week recovery prognosis hasn’t changed since Dunlap was ruled out last December, and the sophomore wing received his first follow-up exam on Friday.

What to Watch for in the Storm

During Friday’s media availability, Rick Pitino said he wanted to see St. John’s play with more pace and take more three-point attempts after the Red Storm struggled with both in their 57-56 loss to Creighton on New Year’s Eve. The Red Storm only took nine three-pointers on Tuesday, their fewest in a game this season, with Zuby Ejiofor converting the team’s only two attempts. Through three Big East games, St. John’s has not made more than three triples in a single game.

Scouting the Bulldogs

After an impressive 7-1 start that wins over SMU, Northwestern, and Mississippi State, Butler are back at .500 after a six-game losing streak. Their last loss was their most brutal of this skid. The Bulldogs led Villanova at home by a score of 64-51 with five minutes remaining in the second half, but they faceplanted and gave up a 22-1 run to end the game and lose, 73-65.

Granted, four of the six losses in this streak came against teams ranked in the KenPom top 35, but they also fell to North Dakota State (ranked 115th) at home during this stretch, leaving the Bulldogs off of the NCAA tournament bubble after a promising start to their season.

A glance at Butler’s profile reveals they are somewhat slower than the average team with a KenPom adjusted tempo of 67.9 (213th in the country). Butler also shoots 49.4% from two, ranking in the bottom half of the nation, but they are among the country’s best in shooting a 30th-best 38.4% from three. They also hold opponents to 45.2% shooting from two and 30.7% shooting from three, ranking in the top 100 nationally in both categories. The Bulldogs are middle-of-the-pack in ball security with a 17.7% turnover rate and they rarely force steals, holding a 4.9% steal rate (third-worst in the country).

Fifth-year guard Jahmyl Telfort leads Butler’s offense for a second straight season. Telfort leads the Bulldogs in points per game (16.1), assists per game (3.6) and three-point shooting percentage (43.1%), and is also second on the team in rebounds per game (5.1).

Senior guard Pierre Brooks is one of Butler’s top scoring options next to Telfort, but Brooks can also take over a game like his backcourt partner, posting five games of 20 or more points this season. Brooks is also averaging 14.6 points per game and 4.5 rebounds, shoting 45.3% from the field and 38.2% from three.

Iowa transfer Patrick McCaffery is playing in his sixth season of college basketball. The son of Hawkeyes men’s basketball coach Fran, McCaffery is averaging career-bests in points (12.8) and rebounds (4.4) while shooting 42.4% from the field and 42.2% from three.

Fifth-year center Andre Screen began the first two games of the season as a starter, then came off the bench over his next eight games, but is back in the starting five in three of his last four games after forward Augusto Cassia suffered a knee injury against North Dakota State on December 10. Over his last four games, which encompasses the start of Big East play, Screen is averaging 9.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.0 blocks while shooting 57.1% from the field and 81.3% from the free throw line. Standing at 7-foot-1, Screen could frustrate the Red Storm offense in the paint like Ryan Kalkbrenner did earlier this week.

Keys to the game

Play with pace – The Red Storm play at their best when they operate at a high tempo, which they did not do against Creighton, only scoring eight fastbreak points. If St. John’s can open the floor, good things will happen.

Take more threes – This goes back to the Red Storm’s unsustainably low three-point numbers. St. John’s needs to start burying more triples, or they will put themselves in danger against great long-range shooting teams like Butler.

Capitalize off turnovers – Butler is becoming more secure with possession as of late, only giving up 7.4 turnovers per game in their last five games after forking over 13.2 giveaways per game over their first nine. St. John’s needs to pry the ball loose against Butler and start converting on these extra opportunities down the floor.

Prediction

St. John’s and Butler are heading in opposite directions, and it will be clear on Saturday. The Bulldogs might enjoy some three-point shooting success, and Andre Screen could trouble the Red Storm’s interior scoring, but the Johnnies’ defensive and rebounding advantages will prove too much. St. John’s wins, 78-67.