St. John’s men’s basketball game preview: Baylor

The Red Storm travel to The Bahamas for the Baha Mar Bahamas Championship, starting with a ranked-on-ranked matchup against the Bears

After a decisive 14-point win over the New Mexico Lobos on Sunday, St. John’s flies down to sunny Nassau, Bahamas to play three games in four days that will be critical to their NCAA tournament outlook, starting with a matchup with the No. 13 Baylor Bears in the first round of the Baha Mar Bahamas Championship on Thursday night. They will face either No. 11 Tennessee or Virginia on Friday night in their second and final game of the tournament.

St. John’s hopes to win its first ranked-on-ranked game since they beat No. 15 Villanova as the 23rd-ranked team in the country on February 26, 2011.

Game information

Who: #22 St. John’s Red Storm (4-0) vs. #13 Baylor Bears (3-1)

When: Thursday, November 21, 2024, 7:00 p.m.

Where: Baha Mar Convention Center (Nassau, Bahamas)

TV: CBS Sports Network

Radio: Learfield Radio

Tickets: Ticketmaster

Series History: Baylor won the only previous meeting on November 18, 2012, defeating the Red Storm in Charleston, South Carolina, by a score of 97-78.

KenPom Predicted Spread: Baylor by one, 76-75 (47 percent chance of St. John’s win)

Injury news

No injury news to report for St. John’s.

What to Watch for in the Storm

After rehabilitating from shin surgery in the offseason, R.J. Luis has a spring in his step through four games of the new season. The 6-foot-7 wing is scoring 17.5 points per game and pulling down 7.8 rebounds a contest, earning a spot on the Big East Weekly Honor Roll for a second straight week.

Luis has been an instrumental part of the Red Storm’s lightning-quick fastbreak offense that ranks fifth in the nation with 22.3 fastbreak points per game.

The Red Storm’s defense looks as good as advertised, with their rim defense and shot-blocking standing out through four games. According to CBB Analytics, St. John’s is holding opponents to 44.9% shooting at the rim. The Red Storm are also averaging 6.5 blocks per game (17th best in the country) with an 18.1% block percentage (12th best).

Rick Pitino used an eight-man rotation in Sunday’s win over New Mexico, with Simeon Wilcher, Brady Dunlap, and Ruben Prey coming off the bench. Vince Iwuchukwu, who started against Wagner, did not play against the Lobos. Could Pitino bring Iwuchukwu back into the rotation?

Scouting the Bears

The leading storyline after opening night of the college basketball season was Gonzaga pasting Baylor in a 38-point win in an off-campus home game for the Bulldogs. The result was stunning, but Baylor was integrating several new players into their rotation like many teams do in the transfer portal era.

Baylor has put the season-opening blunder behind them, knocking off then-No. 16 Arkansas on a neutral court in Dallas in their very next game, then piling on 100 points in each of their buy games against Sam Houston State and Tarleton State.

KenPom ranks Baylor as the 12th-best team in the country, one spot below where they started in the preseason. The Bears are also ranked fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency but are a little uneven, ranking 45th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Like previous Scott Drew teams, this year’s Baylor squad plays a slower tempo, ranking 280th in KenPom adjusted tempo with 68.2 estimated possessions per game.

The Bears are led by three players St. John’s were interested in recruiting during the offseason: Miami transfer Norchad Omier, Duke transfer Jeremy Roach, and consensus five-star recruit V.J. Edgecombe.

Omier spent his first two years of college basketball at Arkansas State, where he won the Sun Belt Player of the Year award as a sophomore. The Nicaraguan national then transferred to Miami, leading the Hurricanes to their first Final Four appearance in program history in 2023.

Things went squirrelly for Miami last season, getting ranked as high as eighth in the nation before they would lose their final ten games and miss the NCAA tournament with a losing record. Omier would enter the transfer portal for his fifth season of college basketball. St. John’s was the prohibitive favorite when Omier declared for the portal, but he pulled a surprise by committing to Baylor.

Even though Omier is listed at 6-foot-7, he poses many problems for opposing centers. He can back down opposing bigs in the post, create space near the basket, and is elite in the pick-and-roll. So far this season, Omier is averaging 13.3 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, and his 21.1% total rebound percentage through four games ranks third in the Big 12.

After spending four years playing for Duke, former five-star recruit Jeremy Roach made his way to Waco. Roach played in 130 games and made 108 starts over four seasons with the Blue Devils, averaging 11.3 points, 3.1 assists, and 2.4 rebounds, and he helped them reach the Final Four in 2022 during Mike Krzyzewski’s final season as head coach. He’s averaging 12.0 points and 4.5 assists per game for Baylor.

Roach remains a three-point threat, but he might be looking for more long-range attempts with his new team. After averaging 42.9% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game last season, he is making 38.1% of triples with 5.3 attempts per game this season. Roach also scores off the bounce with ease and makes clutch shots when needed.

Consensus five-star freshman V.J. Edgecombe is widely considered to be a top-five draft pick in the 2025 NBA draft by analysts. The Bahamian native Edgecombe grew up in Bimini, over 130 miles west of the site of Thursday’s game in Nassau. Edgecombe spent his last two years of high school at Long Island Lutheran in Brookville.

The 6-foot-5 guard is a hyper-explosive athlete who treats the court like his trampoline park, performing nightly highlight-worthy dunks. Edgecombe is producing on both ends of the floor, averaging 11.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.8 blocks through four games. He is still developing his jumper, only shooting 36.6% from the field and 3-of-17 from three (17.6%).

Senior guard Jayden Nunn and junior Josh Ojianwuna are returnees and make up the rest of the starting lineup.

Nunn is a 3-and-D guard out to a hot start from deep, making almost half of his attempts so far by shooting 12-of-25 from beyond the arc (48 percent) and has forced two or more steals in each of his last three games.

Ojianwuna is stepping into the starting rotation after spending his first two seasons as a reserve big. The 6-foot-10 big from Asaba, Nigeria averages 8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game, playing 23.5 minutes per game.

Guards Robert Wright III and Jalen Celestine provide scoring off the bench. Wright is a five-star recruit who scored in double-figures through his first four college games, averaging 11.0 points and 5.8 assists. Celestine transferred from Cal and is currently totaling 9.8 points and 2.8 rebounds per game while shooting 9-of-24 from three (37.5 percent).

Four-star freshman Jason Asemota is getting limited playing time, averaging 3.0 points and 1.3 rebounds in 6.5 minutes per game. The 6-foot-9 forward recorded eight points, three rebounds, and two steals in eleven minutes in the Bears’ win over Tarleton State, but he might not see any more than a few minutes of action against St. John’s.

Junior guard Langston Love was an integral piece for Baylor a season ago, averaging 11.0 points off the bench, but he hasn’t played since March due to an ankle injury. The status of the three-point threat entering the Baha Mar tournament is still unclear.

Keys to the game

Protect the rock – There are few nits to pick in the Red Storm’s game this season, but they must be cleaner with the ball. St. John’s has an 18.8% turnover rate through four games (223rd in the country), which does not bode well against a Baylor team with a 13.6% steal percentage (36th-best in the country).

Attack the basket early – According to CBB Analytics, Baylor allows teams to score 68.9% at the rim and 55.3% inside the paint. Still, the Bears do a good job denying looks from around the rim, only allowing 19.8% of attempts in that area. St. John’s needs to attack Baylor’s weak spot.

Open the game up – Baylor does a great job of slowing opposing teams down and making them play in the halfcourt, only allowing 11.5 fastbreak points per game. The Red Storm can execute in the halfcourt, but sticking to their strengths and leaning on their pace wouldn’t hurt.

Prediction

We live in very strange times. St. John’s is only a slight 1.5-point underdog against a top-15 ranked team (who won a national championship in recent memory) on a neutral floor. Of course, very little separates these two, but Baylor has the edge on three-point shooting, and St. John’s has the edge on interior defense. Ultimately, Baylor’s long-range game will push them ahead in a tightly contested matchup. Baylor wins, 78-75.