In his day job, ProfessorB is an award-winning social scientist and Presidential Laureate. His writing has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and other major media outlets. But he also dabbles in NetsWorld.
Remember when the Brooklyn Nets were going to be “in the driver’s seat this offseason”? That prediction came from ESPN insider Bobby Marks, but it was echoed by pundits around the NBA. They pointed to the team’s passel of first round draft picks, which could facilitate trading up for a future star, but above all to its “cap flexibility.” As the only team in the league with substantial cap space, the Nets were expected to dominate free agency. “The 2025 offseason,” we were told, “runs through Brooklyn.”
Two weeks into free agency, not so much. The league’s headline transactions have been strategic retreats. The Bucks waived injured Damian Lillard, swallowing more than $100 million in salary to make room for Myles Turner. Bradley Beal is expected to be next. The Celtics traded Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, easing their salary crunch.
Meanwhile, much of the Nets’ vaunted cap space remains unused. And it looks increasingly likely that it won’t be used, at least before the season starts. Last season, the team’s focus was on staying below the luxury tax threshold. Right now, it is on getting above the salary floor.
The Nets did get in on the margins of the three-team Porzingis trade, acquiring the 22nd pick in the draft (Drake Powell) for taking on Terance Mann’s $47 million salary over the next three years. They also traded their best player, Cam Johnson, for a 2032 first-round pick and Michael Porter Jr., adding another $35 million in salary over the next two years. Aside from those salary dumps, their biggest moves have been re-signing two of their own free agents, Day’Ron Sharpe and Ziaire Williams, to modest team-friendly deals.
According to Spotrac, the Nets currently have 12 players with guaranteed contracts:
- Michael Porter Jr. ($38.3 million)
- Nic Claxton ($25.4 million)
- Terance Mann ($15.5 million)
- Egor Demin ($6.9 million)
- Day’Ron Sharpe ($5.8 million)
- Ziaire Williams ($5.8 million)
- Nolan Traore ($3.8 million)
- Noah Clowney ($3.4 million)
- Drake Powell ($3.4 million)
- Dariq Whitehead ($3.3 million)
- Ben Saraf ($2.9 million)
- Danny Wolf ($2.8 million)
The total cost of those 12 contracts (plus $100,000 in “dead money,” the partial guarantee paid to Maxwell Lewis when he was waived) is $117.2 million. That is far below the $154.6 million salary cap. Indeed, it is $22 million below the salary floor, the minimum amount NBA teams are required to spend.
If a team doesn’t reach the salary floor before the season starts, the difference gets distributed among all the players in the league (not just their own players, as in the previous collective bargaining agreement) at the end of the season, and they lose their share of tax revenue. In the meantime, they incur a cap hold for the difference, so they cannot add salary during the season.
Failing to reach the salary floor would be an obvious blunder—incurring some costs with no potential benefit. Thus, it is safe to assume that, one way or another, the Nets will add at least $22 million in salary before the season starts. With three spots to fill on the 15-man roster, there are various ways they could do that.
First, obviously, they could re-sign—or sign and trade—restricted free agent Cam Thomas. Thomas has said he wants to return to the Nets, but the two sides are rumored to be “very far apart in negotiations.” Last month, pundits predicted that Thomas would get nearly $25 million per year. But the market for restricted free agents (including Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey, and Quentin Grimes) has been ice cold. For now, Thomas’s $12.1 million cap hold remains on the books. (The team could have renounced his rights and withdrawn its qualifying offer Sunday but did not. Thomas has until October 1 to accept the offer, but that deadline can be extended.)
Second, they could use what’s left of their cap space monopoly to take additional salary in a trade. If they choose not to re-sign Thomas, they could take an additional $33 million or more in salary this season—as much as they added in the Mann and Porter deals combined. Unfortunately, the market for salary dumps has not been nearly as lucrative as it looked a month or two ago. Players like Cole Anthony—and even Lillard and Beal—are getting bought out rather than traded. But there are still teams out there that would benefit from shedding salary, if Sean Marks is willing to lower his price sufficiently.
Third, they could sign one or more of the remaining free agents. There are still plenty out there, but few who are likely to be appealing. Fans have suggested adding some veteran locker-room leadership, or perhaps an experienced point guard. However, the Nets seem to be in no hurry to do that.
Finally, depending on what else they do, the Nets could simply retain one or more of the four players already on the roster with unguaranteed contracts: Keon Johnson, Jalen Wilson, Tyrese Martin, and Drew Timme. Each of these players is set to make between $2 million and $2.3 million if they are still with the team in January, but each could be waived at little or no cost before the season starts. (Johnson has a $271,000 guarantee; Wilson $88,000. Martin and Timme are completely non-guaranteed.)
There isn’t room for all four on the 15-man roster, even if Thomas doesn’t come back. The best bets to stay are probably Wilson and Johnson, who led the team in minutes last season and have small partial guarantees that will cost the team some money as noted if they are waived. But expect a battle for those last roster spots in training camp. (The Nets also have one open two-way slot, with Tosan Evbuomwan and Tyson Etienne in the other two for the moment.)
Marks is always capable of surprising. However, the simplest path, and perhaps the most likely, would be to re-sign Thomas, retain Johnson and Wilson, and call it a day. In that scenario, Thomas would have to get at least $17.5 million for the Nets to reach the salary floor. They would still have plenty of flexibility to make further deals during the season—not only $15 million below the salary cap, but some additional wiggle room from possible unbalanced trades and/or a mid-level exception.
Of course, being far below the salary cap for most or all of the season would puncture the pretense that the Nets are trying to field a competitive team. A few months ago, as last season petered out, I outlined possible strategies for the off-season.
“Whatever path they pick,” I concluded, “the Nets will make the right—hopeful—noises. We’ll hear about ‘competing’ and ‘long-term sustainable success.’ But fans should watch what they do, not what they say. Will they be spending to win this summer, or treading water?”
Spending to win was always unlikely. But two weeks into free agency, the Nets are barely treading water.