The answer, at least regarding Brooklyn’s first couple of picks, seems clear.
Ace Bailey is not the only name being thrown around the Brooklyn Nets as the 2025 NBA Draft approaches. Enter: Egor Demin (pronounced YAY-gor Deh-meen).
Writing for The Stein Line, Jake Fischer says there has been “consistent buzz that he is drawing particular interest from Brooklyn.”
Fischer does not state where, exactly, Brooklyn may be interested in taking the lanky Russian guard* who played one NCAA season at BYU following three years in Real Madrid’s system. Of all the prospects we’ve covered thus far, Demin is the first non-slam-dunk lottery pick, and thus may be available when Brooklyn makes their other first-round picks at #19, #26, and #27. (Barring trades, of course.)
Yet, Fischer writes that Demin is “hoping to crash the lottery” and that many “front offices appear intrigued by the talent that complements Demin’s lengthy frame. It is no stretch to say that he is the highest-rated NBA Draft prospect with Real Madrid in his background since a certain Luka Dončić.”
A lot to unpack here, but first some pedantry: NBA Draft prospects with Real Madrid in their backgrounds since Dončić is a group headlined by Usman Garuba, Tristan Vukčević, Baba Miller, and this year’s Hugo Gonzalez.
Anyway, Fischer does nail the immediate appeal of Demin: He is a (barefoot) 6’8” 19-year-old who can pass the ball and maybe, probably shoot. His best passes as BYU’s full-time point guard came in pick-and-roll settings, particularly when opponents put two defenders on the ball. But no matter what, he always read the whole court…
Demin also made exceptional reads in transition, either after handling in the open floor or throwing outlet passes to kickstart the break. As a shooter, he occasionally looked NBA ready, despite converting just 27.3% of his threes at BYU. The volume was high, and some deep pull-ups, step-backs, and catch-and-shoots litter his tape. They look damn good when they go in…
egor demin drills the deep three pic.twitter.com/6T1VUXS0tg
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 20, 2024
Though the Moscow native made under 70% of his free-throws at BYU and shot poorly on long twos, there are some statistics in his favor, not just highlights. This graphic, courtesy of Wilko Martínez-Cachero and his excellent Floor and Ceiling Substack, shows that Demin had his worst shooting season in some time.
At various levels of European competition, Demin easily cleared 30% from deep and 70% from the line. Here are his career averages, if you will…
It’s reasonable to think the Nets may be more bullish on his shooting than recent data suggests, given Demin’s longer track record, generally pleasing mechanics, and confidence. Not to mention their extensive international scouting.
However, they could be less confident in Demin’s playmaking. The teenager averaged 5.5 assists, but 2.9 turnovers per game at BYU. He took plenty of passing chances, some ill-advised and some exciting, but many turnovers were a result of his biggest flaw as a prospect: He cannot get by anybody…
The second half of that video comes courtesy of Hoop Intellect, part of their longer, excellent analysis on the potential Nets draft pick.
Just as Demin cannot shake his defenders, I cannot shake this flaw in his profile. As Fischer notes in his laudatory piece, some franchises “might be tempted to slot him on the wing as a jumbo secondary creator after Demin flashed some improved shooting efficiency during the Chicago Draft Combine.”
Sure, but teams will be even more tempted to do that after watching Demin try to handle the ball and get downhill against NBA athletes. There’s an obvious lack of wiggle and/or strength on his drives, but Demin also has a high center of gravity and a high handle to match. Defenders don’t just stay in front of him but also dislodge his dribble.
Some of you may see similar flaws in Kon Knueppel. Although he projects to play more off-ball offense (and we know he can shoot), he could really struggle to separate against NBA athletes. That a fair prediction, but it is just a prediction. Following three seasons of destroying defenders as a primary scorer on the EYBL circuit, Knueppel had a very productive season at Duke as a
On the contrary, we’ve seen Demin struggle against strong competition:
- In 17 games against top-50 NCAA teams, he posted a total of 57 turnovers to 66 made baskets. Read that again.
- Demin registered 16 combined blocks and steals in the first five games of BYU’s season, all absolute demolitions of low-major competition (3.2 per game). In the next 28 games, Demin registered 34 combined blocks and steals (1.2 per game).
- In twenty Big 12 games, standing at 6’8”, Demin grabbed three total offensive rebounds.
Here is a 27-game sample size of his stats against top-150 NCAA teams, courtesy of databallr…
Demin’s 1.9 BPM (Box Plus-Minus, the sturdiest all-in-one metric in NCAA hoops) vs top-150 competition will be comfortably lower than any other first-round pick. Same with his 46.8% true shooting.
Alas, not every statistical indicator was negative. BYU’s offense was seven points per 100 possessions better with Demin on the court. Despite his own turnover problems, the Cougars turned it over less often as a team with him initiating the bulk of possessions. He gave them a structure, no matter how wobbly.
The Sell: NBA teams run plenty of pick-and-rolls. NBA teams set plenty of off-ball screens. Cam Johnson isn’t exactly toasting guys off the dribble, and Jordi Fernández built a half-court offense around Johnson that, through mid-January, was in the top half of the league. Demin doesn’t have CJ’s scoring chops yet, but he is a great floor-reader. Hell, at 6’8”, he may be a truly special passer in both transition and the half-court. Whether he’s the nominal point guard or on the wing, his skills will play, especially because he’s gonna shoot the rock at a high clip. Just look at some of these makes. He’ll survive guarding bigger, slower players, and the Nets will become a better passing team overnight. Maybe a little rich at #8, but a home run at #19.
The Short: It’s just tough to watch these NBA Playoffs and then take the least athletic guy in the class. Forget whether he’s bringing the ball up or not. Zoom out for a second. You draft Egor Demin because there are not many 6’8” guys who can shoot and pass — like, really pass. Additive offensive players no matter the role, right? And yet, in the vast majority of his games at BYU, he was an inefficient shooter who turned it over a lot. Demin isn’t going to draw help defenders in the NBA; his guy is going to be able to stay in front of him, so the defense won’t collapse, so his playmaking instincts become less valuable. And we don’t even know if he can shoot it!
In my brief opinion: Egor Demin at #8 would be a disastrous pick. It would retroactively make each of Brooklyn’s 56 losses in 2024-25 sting just a bit more.
Egor Demin at #19, even, would be a reach. Yes, he’d become the second-most interesting young Net behind whoever they select at #8, and I’d be super excited to watch a teenager read the floor like he can. Drafting isn’t an exact science, and the Moscow kid understands basketball. Hell, there’s nothing I love more than a crisp extra pass.
I don’t doubt Fischer’s reporting. Maybe the Nets are playing the game within the game, sending out smoke signals. Why they would do that, I have no idea, but Demin simply does not have the profile of a lottery pick.
Over at Swish Theory, our dozen draft analysts produced a composite board. There was no shortage of differing opinions; some people had Ace Bailey in the top-five, others in the mid-teens. Same with Collin Murray-Boyles, Khaman Maluach, and even Dylan Harper wasn’t the unanimous choice at #2.
Egor Demin ended up at #30. To me, that sounds about right.