In his day job, ProfessorB is an award-winning social scientist. His writing has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs and other major media outlets. But he also dabbles in NetsWorld.
With the NBA doing its Cup thingy this week, it’s time for Brooklyn Nets fans to catch their breath and assess the season so far. Depending on what you hope for and how you count, they’ve been really good, just okay, or pretty bad.
At 10-14, they’re 20th in the league in win percentage (just okay). But that’s already halfway to the season win total projected by Las Vegas, with 58 games still to play (really good). Zach Harper at The Athletic split the difference, giving them a “B” grade and writing, “This was a team that was supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NBA, but it’s been really fun and competitive.”
Alas, “really fun and competitive” means that the Nets are currently slated to pick 15th in next summer’s draft—pretty bad, if the aim is to draft a franchise foundation piece. Some fans think they can pivot to tanking after the trade deadline. With just a half-game lead over the Bulls, Pistons, and Pacers for the last non-lottery spot in the East, it might not be too hard to fall to 8th or 10th; but it will be harder to lose much ground to bottom-five teams that will keep doing their own best to accumulate ping pong balls.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Nets have been better offensively (13th in the league in points scored per possession) than defensively (25th in points allowed per possession) so far. Perhaps even more surprisingly, their offensive success has been predicated on 3-point shooting, an area where they were below average last season. They are currently 5th in the league in 3-point attempts, 4th in 3-point percentage, 5th in percentage of 3-point makes assisted, 9th in overall assist percentage, and 12th in true-shooting percentage.
The Nets’ woes have mostly come in the paint, due at least in part to injuries to Nic Claxton (out for 6 games), Dorian Finney-Smith (out for 8 games), and Day’Ron Sharpe (out for 21 games). The team is 27th in points in the paint, 27th in offensive rebounding percentage, 26th in defensive rebounding percentage, 29th in blocks, and dead last in fouls committed.
Still, there are some indications of the scrappy style of play preached by rookie coach Jordi Fernandez. They’re drawing an extra 0.6 charges per 48 minutes compared to last season—a small improvement in absolute terms, but the difference between last in the league and 3rd. They’re 6th in limiting opponents’ 3-point attempts, 7th in drawing fouls (compensating for some of their own foul-proneness), and 11th in points off turnovers. And despite their disadvantages inside, they’re 21st in limiting opponents’ points in the paint and 12th in limiting second-chance points.
In terms of individual performances, the bad news (or is it good news?) is that the Nets best play has come from veterans who may not be around after the trade deadline. Cam Johnson leads the team with a +2.0 Estimated Plus-Minus rating—the only Net among the league’s top 60 players. He also leads the team in total minutes played, and he’s posting career-best numbers in true-shooting, 3-point shooting, scoring, and assists. Finney-Smith (+1.0), Dennis Schroder (+0.6), and Ben Simmons (+0.4) have also been effective. Aside from Bojan Bogdanovic, who hasn’t played a single minute, these four are the Nets’ oldest players, and it would not be surprising for at least two of them to be traded.
Claxton has contributed defensively, but he’s been bothered by injuries and hasn’t found the larger offensive role projected by some (including Fernandez and Claxton himself) before the season. Cam Thomas (−0.1) has improved his offensive efficiency (60.6% true-shooting) and is 7th in the NBA in scoring, but he continues to be a huge liability on defense (his −2.0 defensive EPM rating is among the worst in the league), and he may need some time to work his way back from a hamstring strain. Sharpe has logged just 44 minutes since returning from a hamstring strain of his own, so no progress on evaluating his long-term potential; restricted free agency is looming.
The Nets’ other young players have ranged from bad (Jalen Wilson, Tyrese Martin, Ziaire Williams) to terrible (Trendon Watford, Noah Clowney, and Keon Johnson). Of course, they may improve with more experience. But so far, there is little to suggest that they will be able to keep the ship afloat if the top of the roster is gutted by the trade deadline. That may be good news in the short run if the aim is to land a better draft pick next summer; but it is bad news in the longer run if the aim is to find some “keepers” to accelerate a rebuild.
The theme of the Nets’ season was supposed to be leaving limbo, “Rev up the tank.” But for better or worse, the tank hasn’t left the station yet—and no one, with the possible exception of Sean Marks, knows if or when it will. All we can do in the meantime is try to enjoy “really fun and competitive.”