The past does not matter in the Eastern Conference Finals

As we saw with Boston, conventional wisdom goes out the window come playoff time.

The Knicks are going to play in an Eastern Conference Finals game tomorrow. Just reflect on that before anything else.

–

Alright, where were we?

Before every playoff series in any sport, one of the top things that is looked at as part of the pre-series analysis is the recent history between the two teams in question. Specifically, the season series.

The Knicks went 2-1 against the Indiana Pacers in the regular season, winning by 25 and 13 in their two victories. Good sign, right?

Well, the Knicks went 1-7 in the regular season against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics before going a combined 8-4 against them in the postseason. Further, the Knicks and Pacers have met once since Thanksgiving and zero times since the All-Star break. It’s been over three months since the last time they met. That’s an eternity in basketball.

The Pacers defeated the Knicks in the postseason last May, but an assortment of injuries and an offseason roster overhaul changed that dynamic, too.

The fact is that no matter how people try to spin this series and compare it to what we’ve seen already, it’s incredibly unpredictable.

First, with the season series, the Knicks’ regular-season losses to Detroit and Boston were completely different.

With Detroit, the Knicks lost matchups where they weren’t whole. In one, Karl-Anthony Towns sat. In another, the team was essentially mailing in the rest of the regular season by sitting Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson to keep them healthy for the playoffs. The Pistons became a trendy upset pick because of a sample size that included zero games played by Mitchell Robinson and a late-season game that saw Precious Achiuwa and PJ Tucker play 67 combined minutes. In the six-game series, the dynamic duo combined to play as many seconds as you and me.

With Boston, it was a complete reversal of the regular season, but that was due to multiple factors. The Knicks completely changed their defensive scheme, going from drop coverage to switching everything and forcing the C’s into repeated isolation offense. There was also regression to the mean. It turns out that Jayson Tatum, who shot 33% on pull-up threes in the regular season, was not going to shoot 53% on them against the Knicks like he did in the season series. Who knew?

There are things that translated, of course. The Pistons proved to be incredibly feisty for a young team, and they played confidently with their regular-season success. The Celtics still abused multiple Knicks weaknesses throughout the series at times. Can the same happen with the Knicks-Pacers series?

Well, Indiana shot just 30.8% from 3 against the Knicks this season. They also played two of the three games during their cold streak to start the season before they started playing like one of the best teams in the sport. There’s a lot that can change, especially with a team that just dismantled a 64-win team.

But with last year, how much can be translated?

Brunson will be guarded by the same guys, Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard. Rick Carlisle and Tom Thibodeau will have their same tendencies. Other than that, things are very different.

Looking back at the series, the Knicks return five of their likely eight-man rotation from last season (Brunson, Anunoby, Robinson, McBride, Hart). However, Anunoby and Robinson combined to play just three games in the series, taking a huge chunk out of the Knicks’ defensive game plan that predictably fell apart after Game 2. They can guard Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam a lot easier without a backline of Isaiah Hartenstein (who has really struggled vs versatile bigs) and Precious Achiuwa.

That brings me to the main point: injuries. Did the Pacers miss Bennedict Mathurin last year? Sure. You remember who the Knicks were missing?

Julius Randle (shoulder): all seven games

Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle): all seven games

Mitchell Robinson (ankle): six games

OG Anunoby (hamstring): five games

Josh Hart (abdomen): played at 50% for the last 1.5 games

Jalen Brunson (hand): half of Game 7

All of these guys were in the rotation. The Knicks were stretched extremely thin. If the Knicks stay healthy this year, the series will look totally different than when the Knicks were digging deep in their bench out of desperation.

Which is to say that the recent history between these two teams just doesn’t matter as much as you’d think it does. The Knicks had hella depth last year before injuries, now they have barely any at the expense of having high-end talent. There are a ton of ways this series can go, but I’d be surprised if any of them mirror the 2024 series or this year’s season series in the way it’s played.