Every NBA season begins with familiar names as favorites to win major awards. But somewhere beneath the spotlight, there are dark horse candidates who might surprise us all. For example, last season, nobody expected Dyson Daniels to win the Most Improved Player award. The favorites are easy to name, but history has a way of rewarding players who were not expected to win. For every superstar that is expected to earn hardware, there are other players who do not follow the script. Let’s talk about them.
The NBA’s Best-Kept Secrets for This Season’s Awards
Most Valuable Player
The MVP award has been dominated by foreign players in recent years. The last American to win one of the NBA’s most prestigious awards was James Harden. This year, if you look at the favorites, there is no American player expected to win it. Ask ten fans who will win MVP, and you will hear the same names: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, or Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Historically, to win the MVP award, a player has to lead his team to either a top-two seed in the conference or have a historic season. For example, Russell Westbrook won it while leading the Thunder to the sixth seed, but he averaged a triple-double.
In the Eastern Conference, there is one underrated candidate who might surprise us. Jalen Brunson has odds of +10,000 to win the MVP award. But in a weak conference, the New York Knicks could easily win 60+ games. Now imagine the New York media and fans, and how crazy they can be. Do you think the New York media couldn’t push a narrative for Brunson to win MVP if the Knicks get 60+ wins? That is a good bet on the Knicks and Brunson.
Defensive Player of the Year
To be fair, if there weren’t a 65+ games rule, Victor Wembanyama would win this award every year for the next decade, probably. But that 65+ games rule leaves space for other candidates. We are not saying that our dark horse candidate will have a better defensive impact than Wemby, but the San Antonio Spurs as a franchise do not push for individual awards. They have no issue resting their players and limiting their games.
Historically, big men dominate this award. With that in mind, we are going with Walker Kessler. And no, he will not win the award if he is in a Utah Jazz uniform after the trade deadline. But if he gets traded to the Los Angeles Lakers and provides the rim protection they desperately need, Kessler can push for the award. The last player to win the award after switching teams was Dikembe Mutombo, who won it in 2001 after a mid-season trade from the Atlanta Hawks to the Philadelphia 76ers. Kessler might also miss some games — he has played in 65+ games only once.
Rookie of the Year
There is no denying that Cooper Flagg is the biggest favorite to win one of the major NBA awards. It will be hard to see anyone other than Flagg winning ROTY. If he plays 65+ games, he will probably run away with it. Here is a fun fact: if Flagg wins it, he will be the first rookie since Ben Simmons to do it on a likely playoff team. The Dallas Mavericks should make the playoffs this season, and Flagg will be a huge reason for that.
But if the award goes to a player putting up absurd numbers on a bad team, then we might have someone like Jeremiah Fears. He will have to do it on a New Orleans Pelicans team in dire need of playmaking. Fears might be the starting point guard for a team with playoff aspirations. He showed his scoring ability in Summer League, averaging 17.4 points per game. But he also averaged 5+ turnovers per game. If he reduces that to fewer than three, Fears has a chance.
Most Improved Player of the Year
After the Fred VanVleet injury, Amen Thompson rose in the ranks as the favorite to win the award. Everyone expects him to have a bigger role on the Houston Rockets, and with that, he will get more chances to showcase his skills.
But what about the other Thompson twin? Last season, a lot of people didn’t pay much attention to him because he missed some games. But when Ausar Thompson got back, he helped the Detroit Pistons improve on defense. Like his brother, Ausar is elite when it comes to on-ball defense. His biggest challenge is three-point shooting. During his rookie season, he averaged 1.8 attempts, which fell to 0.8 attempts last season. If he develops a consistent three-point shot, he might win the Most Improved Player award.
Sixth Man of the Year Award
When we talk about NBA awards, Sixth Man of the Year is one of the more interesting races. We can safely say that Manu Ginobili popularized this award with his selflessness. This year, we have favorites like Naz Reid, Josh Hart, Tari Eason, and De’Andre Hunter. A lot of people expect Hart to move to the bench for the Knicks and contend for this award. But what about another Knick — and a former Sixth Man of the Year winner?
Jordan Clarkson was brought to New York to provide offense from the bench and some breathing room for starters. While he has battled injuries in the last two seasons, Clarkson might be a great option for this award. He is listed at +3000 on FanDuel. With the New York media behind him, he is as good a candidate as any. We can also mention players like Jonathan Kuminga and Reed Sheppard as other possible contenders.
Coach of the Year
It is only fitting that we wrap up the discussion on NBA awards with Coach of the Year. Often, coaches who switch teams or completely change their roster win this award. Last year, Kenny Atkinson won it for transforming the Cleveland Cavaliers into a 60+ win squad.
Here is an interesting pick: David Adelman, who took over the Denver Nuggets last season. After a full training camp, Adelman will have a challenging year in front of him. The Nuggets improved their roster, and they are among the favorites to win the Western Conference. However, they have never won 60+ games in an NBA season. With Jokic leading the way and plenty of help around him, this Nuggets team has a chance to pass that mark. If that happens, Adelman has a chance to win the award. There are 12 coaches with better chances than him according to FanDuel, and at +2500, he is a good bet.
© Brett Rojo-Imagn Images
The post The NBA’s Best-Kept Secrets for This Season’s Awards appeared first on Last Word On Basketball.