P&T Round(ball) Table: Predictions for the Knicks-Pacers ECF

The braintrust weighs in.

It’s another edition of our Round(Ball) Table, where the braintrust convenes to share our brilliant takes, irrational hopes, and, occasionally, looming dread.

The Knicks beat the defending champion Boston Celtics in six games. Now, New York is heading to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in two and a half decades. That’s still sinking in. . . .

Standing between our heroes and the Finals? The Indiana Pacers. The same team that ended the Knicks’ last ECF run a quarter-century ago, back when Reggie Miller haunted the Garden and Allan Houston’s knees worked. Similarly to the Knicks, the latest version of the Pacers knocked off their heavily-favored opponent, the first-seed Cavs, and did so in five games.

The Pacers had won the previous three playoff matchups against New York, including last season when they defeated what remained of the injury-ravaged Knicks in a Game Seven at MSG. The third-seed Knicks enter this series with home-court advantage, having beaten the fourth-seed Hoosiers two out of three in the regular season. The Knicks’ average margin of victory in their two wins was 19 points. In their only win, the Pacers rallied to win with 40 points in the fourth quarter.

Based on their regular-season series, you might assume the Knicks will win this one in a walk. But the Celtics had swept New York in the regular season; we thought the Pistons would be a fairly easy opponent, and the Cavs were predicted to dispatch Indiana with ease. The Playoffs, man—they’re just different.

Before things tip off on Wednesday, we gathered the crew to weigh in:

1) What is your expected outcome of the series?

Kento Kato: I’ve seen a lot of fans, admittedly too many for my comfort, who think this series will be a quick and easy one. And I just can’t get there. That’s not to take anything away from the Knicks, and it’s not that I don’t believe in them. It’s just more so that I believe the Pacers are one, very good, and two, peaking. The Pacers may not strike fear into fans like the Celtics did just a couple of weeks ago. But what the Pacers lack in star power, they make up for in execution, depth, and balance. That being said, I believe in the almost movie-like run that they’re on, and I have the Knicks winning in a too-close-for-comfort seven-game series.

Michael Zeno: After the Knicks turned my C’s in 5 prediction into Knicks in 6, I’m not sure how confident I am in any prediction. While both teams are playing with chips on their shoulders, I think the Knicks are still sour from last year’s result. And after beating the defending champions, they’ll have all the confidence in the world that they might have lacked coming into the last series. These Knicks are road warriors (5-1 away from MSG), so give me Knicks in 6, clinching the NBA Finals in front of a raucous Indiana crowd.

Russell Richardson: Knicks in six, mostly because I’m a sucker for rhymes. Indiana’s offense is relentless, but New York’s physicality should ultimately grind the Pacers down. While it is unfair to call their leader, Tyrese Haliburton, the most overrated player in the league, he is inconsistent, whereas New York’s leader, Captain Clutch, leads his team to gritty wins time and again.

Antonio Losada: Out of respect for my fellow P&Ters, I’d say Knicks in six. However, if I’m brutally honest, and this was my personal newsletter, I’d go with New York making the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999 in a quick five games.

Andrew Polaniecki: I just don’t see the Knicks losing to the Pacers two years in a row on the brink of a championship. Last year, we went to seven all bruised and battered, and had Brunson not broken his hand in Game 7, who knows if the outcome would’ve been different last year. I felt like we were the better team last year, and at full strength, we are better than we were at this point last season against the same Indiana team. This could be a sweep, or it could go seven, but either way, I just don’t see the Knicks losing. I just don’t. I’ve said it since the start of the Playoffs, as long as the Celtics are out of the picture, then the Knicks are going to the Finals. Well, now that the Knicks took out the Celtics, my sentiments are only stronger.

2) What gives you the confidence in success?

Kento: In basketball, they often say the team with the best player wins. That statement becomes even more true during the playoffs. And in this series, I think it’s a pretty cold take to say that the Knicks, regardless of how you want to rank them, have two of the three best players in the series, if not the top two outright. With that being the case, even with the Pacers being a very good team, I just think the Knicks have too much top-end firepower to overcome. The Pacers, to their credit, and more specifically, Haliburton, have been pretty darn good down the stretch, but if the Knicks can just keep these games close, then I’m confident in Brunson, and or Towns coming through.

Zeno: For the third round in a row, Jalen Brunson. Although many would take guys like Anthony Edwards and SGA over him, there are a select few who would argue he might be the best player left in this postseason. There’s one constant in all of this, regardless of matchup, arena, or round, and it’s him. He tried to backpack this team past a very good Pacers team last year with Donte DiVincenzo as his second option. Now, with more help, he’ll see fewer double teams and should go to work against Aaron Nesmith and/or Andrew Nembhard.

Richardson: Defense, rebounding, and Jalen Brunson—the holy trinity. The Knicks have the top-end talent to win the series, and if games stay close, their star power should outshine Indiana’s depth. The Knicks are built to make teams uncomfortable, and the Pacers haven’t faced a playoff defense like this yet. Plus, we have a not-so-secret weapon: Mitchell Robinson. By winning the glass, New York can limit Indiana’s fast breaks, which is where the Hoosiers can really burn you. So win the glass, fellas!

Losada: Remember when folks were talking about the Knicks being a new team, the squad needing many reps to get to their peak, etc, etc…? That was the talk from October to like, two weeks ago, and I don’t think that’s true anymore. Yes, these dudes have played barely a season in the same team, and not even that’s true considering Mitchell Robinson missed ample time. The Knicks are at their best or nearing it, and they are coming off a series victory against the reigning champions and one of the most feared teams entering the playoffs. Let’s not try to change the narrative now. The Cavs and OKC were considered good, but most “experts” still believed in a Boston repeat. And now all of a sudden I have to believe the Pacers are a tougher opponent than the C’s? GTFOH.

Polaniecki: Simple, Knicks took out the reigning champs. In comparison, this should be a breeze. I know it won’t be, and it will be a blood bath in which I hope the rivalry between the Knicks and the Pacers from the ‘90s reignites. I will get no greater joy than hearing Reggie Miller calling the game in which the Knicks advance.

3) What has you stressing about the matchup?

Kento: The Knicks just don’t really match up well, personnel-wise, or schematically, against the Pacers on the defensive end. And that worries me. As has been, and will continue to be the case, the question will be how the Knicks hide Karl-Anthony Towns, and to a lesser degree, Brunson on that end of the floor. And against a Pacers team that is as elite offensively as any other team in the league, it will be very hard to hide them. Head coach Rick Carlisle and Haliburton will find ways to exploit Towns’ defense, and as we’ve seen throughout these playoffs, there will be some very painful and ugly minutes from Towns. Can he stay out of foul trouble? Can he hold up just enough defensively? Those two questions very well may decide the fate of the series.

Zeno: Indiana is flat-out special on offense. Even the guys who, on paper, are weaknesses can kill you. Just look at Nembhard’s postseason shooting. The Knicks will have a better offensive series here, but their unfortunate tendencies to occasionally crumble defensively will kill them this series. You can’t rely on lightning to strike twice with these comebacks.

Richardson: One: New York’s inconsistency on defense. Two: Indiana’s depth and ability to wear down New York’s starters by hassling them with fresh legs off the bench (namely, Theresa Jane McConnell).

Losada: The Pistons were the worst possible first-round matchup for the Knicks. Knicks in six. The Celtics were the worst possible second-round matchup for the Knicks. Knicks in six. The Pacers are (?) the worst possible third-round matchup for the Knicks. We’ll see, but for now I have to believe that, not just in terms of how Indy plays ball but more because of how many Pacers are out there every damn day. The Knicks are going to need their starters to put on immaculate performances nightly and find some production from their bench. The likes of Johnny Furphy and Jarace Walker don’t scare me, but that’s four fresh legs right there already, if you know what I’m saying.

Polaniecki: I’m not stressing anything about the matchup. OG can manage Haliburton, and we’ve got Towns and a healthy Mitch this year to handle Turner. The only thing I’m stressing is the same thing I’ve been stressing all season, which is an injury to a starter and not having enough depth off the bench.

4) Which players will you watch most closely?

Kento: The easy answer remains Brunson because, as everyone knows, this team goes as he goes. But at this point, he’s as much of a sure thing as anyone in the league right now, so I don’t expect anyone will have to watch him very closely. As I said in the question earlier, I do think this series comes down to how good, or how bad, Towns is. He will have defensive lapses. But he has also had some monstrous games against the Pacers this season. If his offense can give the Knicks more than his defense takes away, then the Knicks should win this series. As a bonus answer, I do also want to cheat, and say that while Tom Thibodeau isn’t a player, he should be under close supervision as well. The Pacers, like every other team, will try and force the offense to run through Hart. If Haliburton is rolling, and the Knicks’ offense is struggling with spacing, Thibodeau’s decision to stick with Hart over Deuce McBride, who not only offers spacing but is also unequivocally the best point of attack defender and screen navigator on the team, could be the x-factor.

Zeno: Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns. Robinson, heavily hampered by a preexisting injury, tapped out and headed for season-ending surgery after Game 1 last year. With the Pacers’ rebounding struggles against Cleveland, he can be the X-factor that he’s often been in his postseason career. KAT has dominated the Pacers throughout his career, and it’s very likely he’ll be going one-on-one with their bigs, rather than an assortment of guards and wings like Boston and Detroit did. This has a very good chance of being his signature series as a Knick. The two have also been pretty damn good together this season, and those double big lineups might put on a rebounding clinic all series.

Losada: Obi Toppin.

Polaniecki: Mitchell Robinson. Our offense will be there, but Mitch is the difference maker on the other end of the court that will decipher the outcome of the series.

Richardson: I’m always excited to watch Jalen, OG, and Josh. Karl-Anthony Towns is the swing factor in this series—his offense needs to outweigh his defensive lapses. And I’ll be following Obi Toppin, because you just know he’ll pounce at any chance to throw down a monster jam on his old team. But, primarily, I’ll keep one eye on Miles McBride. There will be stretches where New York will need Deuce to provide a spark. Which version will show up: the player who struggled to find the net versus Detroit, or the guy who contributed great minutes on both ends in the Boston series? And just once, just once, I want to see him hit this shot at the buzzer:

5) What would surprise you most in this series?

Kento: If this series is over in five games or under, either way, it would completely blow my mind. I would love nothing more than to watch the Knicks eliminate the Pacers in four or five games. But given the history between these teams, I just can’t see it being a one-sided affair.

Zeno: Well, last time I said the Knicks winning would surprise me most. Not doing that again. I’m with Kento here, this revived rivalry is too heated to end early. It’s not going to be less than six games in either direction.

Richardson: A boring series. These two are too tough and prideful to roll over. Rick Carlisle might be a wet dishrag with whiny tendencies, but he—like Thibs—is a veteran coach who has won big games with less talent. Given the rivalry and how evenly matched these teams are, anything under six games would be a surprise.

Losada: If this series goes the distance. If Reggie Miller escapes MSG alive. If Myles Turner finds a way to neutralize the much more fluid Towns. If we don’t watch a war of outfits in the tunnels and press conferences. If Thibs finds a way to keep working his injury-luck magic and leads the team to the Finals with an impeccably clean injury bill.

Polaniecki: It’s Knicks-Pacers baby. Nothing will surprise me. It feels like 1995 all over again and I can’t wait.