Playoff Game Preview: Knicks at Celtics, Game Five, May 14, 2025

The Knicks look to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000.

Today, for just the third time in a quarter-century, the Knicks will have the opportunity to punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals. After losing both opportunities last year against the Indiana Pacers (who would be the Knicks’ opponents should they win), the Knicks will have three opportunities against the Celtics.

This series has been wild, to say the least. Despite leading for just 24:55 all series (12.65% of the series!), the Knicks are a game away from knocking off the defending champions. They’ve done it off the backs of two 20-point comebacks and a 14-point comeback, completely dominating the Celtics in the fourth quarter to the tune of a plus-32.8 (!!!) net rating.

For reference, the last team to post a net rating that high in the fourth quarter of a playoff series after the first round was the 2019 Warriors in the Western Conference Finals against the Trail Blazers, which is also the only other series in history that a team has overcome three 14+ point deficits and won.

The Knicks have the advantage. Only 4.5% of teams that’ve fallen behind 3-1 have come back. The Celtics have done it twice, most recently in 1981 against Philly. The Knicks have blown one 3-1 lead in the second round in 1997, when several Knicks players were ejected and suspended after a Game 5 scuffle that arguably decided the series based on punishment.

Further, no team that has lost the first two games of a series at home has ever won a series that was not 2-2 going back home for Game 5. All four of the previous “down 2-0 going on the road” comebacks saw the road team win each of the four road games.

History alone suggests this would be a monumental effort for Boston, even without the devastating injury news that Jayson Tatum will miss the remainder of the season with a torn right Achilles tendon.

Without Tatum and in a 3-1 hole, a Celtics team that hasn’t faced adversity since before they acquired Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in 2023, have a gaping hole in their offense. One silver lining, if any, may be their return to prioritizing ball movement to get open looks. Many times late in the game, Boston settles for a Tatum or Jaylen Brown isolation that, for the most part, just hasn’t worked:

For the Celtics to get back into this, they need Jaylen Brown to turn back the clock. He’s had a rough season and some nagging knee issues have caused a less-than-stellar postseason, but as the new focal point of the offense, he has to deliver. White and Holiday are great players, but neither can run an offense. The same can be said for guys like Payton Pritchard, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis. They’re parts of a sensational supporting cast around two All-Stars and have big questions whether they can take on a bigger role.

The keys for the Knicks to ending this tonight and getting the maximum rest available before the biggest series in a generation are as follows.

Start Fast

Boston is deflated. Their locker room after Game 4 was so quiet you could hear a pin drop. Tickets for Game 5 were going for as cheap as $160 (all-in pricing) yesterday. With a monumental road ahead of them, it’s fair to assume they don’t need much to completely deflate them, especially considering how they’ve folded in the second half repeatedly in this series.

The Knicks have trailed at half all four games by an average margin of 15.3 points (16, 9, 25, 11). They need to punch Boston in the mouth first. Their largest lead in the first half of any of these games has been two points. TWO!

Win the first half, you’ll likely win the game.

For the love of god, don’t drop

The Knicks strayed from their uber-switching philosophy in Game 3 and got destroyed. They cannot do that again. Even with no Tatum, they’ll still try to get Brunson and Towns involved in the action to generate open looks and mismatches. Just keep switching everything, it hasn’t failed you yet.

Keep Brown and White out of rhythm

If Jaylen Brown gets off to a bad start, odds are he’s not carrying the Celtics back to Game 6. He’s shooting 37.7% from the field and 22.6% from 3 this series with more turnovers (14) than assists (13). As the focal point of the offense, he needs to cook early for Boston to have a glimmer of hope.

Speaking of cooking, please defend Derrick White. If any player on Boston can catch fire, drop ten threes a night, and make this comeback, it’s him. I assume every shot he takes is going in, I have PTSD.

The Knicks defended White extremely well (especially Deuce McBride, who’s been great this series off the bench) after his 4-for-4 start in Game 4, keeping him from finding open looks and forcing the C’s to look elsewhere for shots. That has to continue.

Double Big Supremacy

Porzingis is at 50%, Luke Kornet is barely playing, and Horford is limited at age 38. The Knicks’ double big lineup of Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns have played 38 minutes this series and have dominated to the tune of a plus-16.1 net rating. Their 93.0 defensive rating is one of the best for a two-man tandem in this round.

Mazzulla is gonna try his tricks to limit Robinson’s minutes, but the Knicks should be proactive and get him into games before he has the chance to throw a few intentional fouls around. Boston has had no counter for their rebounding prowess, with their overall rebounding share of 60% when playing together is the second-highest in the series.

Prediction

The Knicks have no reason to think they can’t beat these guys now. After all the talk in the regular season, they can get this done right here and right now against a deflated team whose soul you’ve taken repeatedly, all without their best player. That said, Boston didn’t get to where they are out of sheer luck. They’re going to play with the fire and desperation of a team that knows the hourglass is running out on this specific core due to cap constraints. As much as I wholeheartedly believe the Knicks will close this out, it doesn’t feel like it’ll be tonight. Celtics by 6, then we close it out in 6 on Friday in front of the best fans in the world.

Injury Report

Celtics:

OUT – Jayson Tatum (Achilles)

Probable – Sam Hauser (ankle)

Knicks:

Nobody!

Game Details

Date: Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA

TV Broadcast: TNT

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