The Knicks got their first road win of the season last night in a 113-111 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. Despite pushing his double-double streak to 10 consecutive games, Karl-Anthony Towns‘ season-long shooting slump has continued. The former three-point contest champion and self-proclaimed “greatest shooting big man” has struggled to start the season. He has a true shooting percentage of 56 percent. Over a full season, it’d be the worst true shooting percentage of his career.
Towns’ three-point percentage has dipped to 31 percent, down from 42 percent last year. He’s attempting roughly the same total shots, but with almost two more threes a game per 36 minutes. Diving into the numbers behind Towns’ slump shows it’s not a matter of shot selection. That means he’s likely due for some regression.
Karl-Anthony Towns’ Season-Long Shooting Slump
The “Shot Diet”
KAT’s usage rate is a tick higher than last season, at 26 percent compared to 25.3 percent a year ago. However, his shooting percentage has dropped from every area of the floor. His two-point percentage is down seven percentage points, and he’s got an effective field goal percentage of 48 percent. His effective field goal percentage on wide-open shots (6+ feet of space) is 40 percent. That’s the worst of any Knicks starter. However, Towns has also taken a lower percentage of wide-open shots than any other starter on the team. The same was true last season, but Towns knocked down those shots at a 67.9 percent clip.
The inverse is also true. Towns attempts more shots against tight defense than any other starter. He also hits them at the lowest percentage, making just 53.8 percent. Despite increasing his usage rate, Towns is only producing 112 points per 100 shot attempts. That puts him in company with Patrick Williams, Brook Lopez, Alex Sarr, and Donovan Clingan.
He’s shooting just 58 percent at the rim, a far cry from the 66 percent he hit last season. For reference, 66 percent puts him in the same percentile as Anthony Davis and Paolo Banchero. Shooting 58 percent at the rim puts him in the 19th percentile, alongside Myles Turner, Jusuf Nurkić, and Kevon Looney. Things haven’t been better from mid-range. He’s hitting 24 percent of his mid-range attempts, down 19 percentage points from the previous year.
In terms of frequency of shots taken, Towns has slightly increased his attempts at the rim. He has cut his mid-range attempts by almost half, and teammates have assisted him on made shots at a similar rate to last season.
Towns’ Impact on Knicks Offense
Towns’ shooting numbers have only slightly dulled his impact on offense. Despite his penchant for the long-ball, Towns still averages the most paint touches on the team. His on/off stats show a difference maker, even when his shots aren’t falling. KAT ranks third on the team in point differential behind Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby, and the team’s effective field goal percentage is 4.3 percent better with him on the floor.
While lineups featuring Towns at the center have killed offensively, he’s struggled with the Knicks’ pivot to a more free-flowing, egalitarian style on offense. He’s been better in the halfcourt than transition, ranking in the 89th percentile in points per possession in the halfcourt but just the 20th percentile when playing in transition.
The shift in offensive focus should allow Towns to play to his strengths. The Knicks attempt the fourth most threes per game, and the team has been ultra-efficient on putbacks and in transition. KAT himself is 77th in the league in offensive rebounding percentage, ahead of bigs like Evan Mobley, Victor Wembanyama, and Alperen Şengün. Given his track record, there’s room for improvement.
Adjusting to the New Normal
An increase in rebounds per game hasn’t improved Towns’ overall rebounding percentage on the offensive glass. His offensive rebounding percentage has fallen every year since the 2017-18 season. Improvement in this area would mean easier chances for KAT and his teammates. He’s fourth in the league in field goal attempts from the restricted area, but makes fewer of those attempts than wings like Jalen Johnson and Deni Avdija.
For a player who’s never shot below 60 percent at the rim, Towns’ start to the season seems more of a blip than a trend. He’s increased his three-pointers taken from above the break, and is driving the ball at a similar rate to last year, but he’s not making as many shots. He’s not hitting shots when it’s catch-and-shoot, off of pull-ups, or in the paint. Still, we’re only at game 14 of 82, with plenty of time for KAT to adjust to the pace of play, and regress to the mean as a shooter.
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