When I looked ahead to the Knicks’ second-round matchup against the Celtics, I could not have seen any of this coming. I did think that the Knicks could surprise people by keeping the games closer than their regular season record against the Celtics would’ve suggested. But I admittedly had the Celtics ultimately winning in a hard-fought five-game series. While it’s just been two games, and there’s still a long way to go, here are the things I was the most wrong about in my predictions.
Coaching
I came into the series believing that while it was close, Joe Mazzulla had a slight edge in coaching. Both have their own way of doing things, and both have driven their fanbases mad for different reasons and in different ways. But given how rocky Tom Thibodeau’s handling of the Pistons series was at times, I gave Mazzulla the upper hand.
Through two games, though, Thibodeau has been the better coach, and it hasn’t been particularly close. From both an X’s and O’s standpoint—and an effort and focus standpoint—the Knicks coach has pressed a lot of right buttons. He went with way more switching in game one, which contributed to the Celtics getting caught up in playing way more of a stagnant and heliocentric offense than we’re used to seeing. He’s used Mitchell Robinson in good spots, pairing him with Karl-Anthony Towns at times. And he surprisingly went with some extended minutes without Jalen Brunson or Towns to start the fourth quarter last night and entrusted Mikal Bridges to handle the offense.
But the team is still far from playing great basketball. Let’s make that very clear. They’re missing a lot of easy shots, the offensive process and spacing are still subpar, some of the passes and turnovers are head-scratching, and defensively, they’ve given up too many open shots, often when Thibodeau reverts to playing Towns in drop coverage. Luckily for the Knicks and Thibodeau, the Celtics are also playing some bad basketball, and some of that has to fall on Mazzulla. His lack of offensive adjustments, awkward timings of intentionally fouling Robinson despite not being in the penalty, and overall decision-making have played a role this series—and not in the way Celtics fans had hoped. This series is far from over, which means both coaches have plenty of chances to make or break this series. But so far, Thibodeau has been the better coach by a significant margin, and that’s something I was wrong about.
The best player in the series
When I stated on the roundtable that the Celtics had the best player in the series, I meant it more in a vacuum because I do think that all things equal, Tatum is better than Brunson and that it’d be foolish to take Brunson over Tatum if you were to start a franchise right now. That being said, I did believe that, given the roster construction and the stakes, Brunson would have the chance to outplay Tatum. And so far, he has. Now, Tatum hasn’t made it too difficult for Brunson to do that, as he’s averaging just 18PPG on 12-42 shooting. But credit to Brunson, who has yet to play up to his standards through two games, but has come up big down the stretch—something that Tatum cannot say he’s done. As is the case for the coaching debate, there’s still plenty of time for this conversation to be flipped. But it’s clear that Brunson has been the better player and, just as importantly in the playoffs, the more clutch player thus far.
The Josh Hart dilemma
I didn’t necessarily think Josh Hart would have a bad series per se. But I did believe that the Celtics would focus on making Hart beat them because that’s what they did for most of their regular season matchups against the Knicks. And so far, as he did against the Celtics in the regular season, Hart has had stretches where he’s killed the Knicks with his indecision and passiveness. But like Brunson, he has come up incredibly big when he’s been needed the most. He had multiple big offensive rebounds in the first game, where his energy kept the Knicks within shouting distance. And, in game two, his sudden offensive decisiveness and aggressiveness in the second half led to a big third quarter in a game where he led all players in scoring. Hart isn’t a perfect player. His shooting flaws have, and likely will, continue to hurt the Knicks at times. But Hart’s role in the two upset wins cannot be understated.
The Mikal Bridges dilemma
Bridges, like Hart, had some very rough games against the Celtics in the regular season. Defensively, he was torched by Tatum in their meetings against Boston, and offensively, he was downright atrocious. So coming into this series, I had very little hope that he’d be good, let alone great. Well through the first 8 quarters, he’s been a plus player, which is surprising, since offensively, he’s still been pretty bad outside of overtime in game one, and the fourth quarter in game two. But he’s managed to make up for it in every other aspect of the game. You cannot talk about the last two wins without mentioning Bridges’ game-winning defensive plays. And you cannot talk about the Knicks’ ability to even be in that possession without talking about his rebounding (6.5RPG this series), and passing (6APG this series). If Bridges goes back to being a subpar defender when guarding Tatum or Brown, his offensive struggles will come back to bite him, but the Knicks could very well be down 0-2 if it weren’t for Bridges- and yes, I know that the Knicks would’ve won both games comfortably had he shot better, to begin with.
The Knicks need to play perfectly.
When the series began, I, like so many other people, believed that the Knicks would have to play close to perfect to have a chance. Given the Celtics’ rather easy-looking championship run last year, their hot end to the regular season this year, and the relatively easy dismantling of the Magic in the first round, the Knicks had very little margin of error- or so I thought. But maybe I was going about it wrong the entire time. Maybe they didn’t need to try and outshoot the Celtics or play picture-perfect basketball. Maybe they needed to do the opposite.
That’s not to say that the Knicks are intentionally missing shots or making the kind of unforced mistakes they’re making. But a lower-scoring, bogged down, isolation-focused, physical game is one the Knicks have a better shot at winning, especially with the reigning Clutch Player of the Year on their side. Boston has missed a lot of shots, been sloppy, and played a pretty subpar series so far. And people are right to point that out. But it’s also time to acknowledge that maybe, just maybe, the Knicks also deserve credit for just how bad the Celtics have looked.