EC Round Three Playoff Series Preview: Knicks vs. Pacers

As weird as it may be, this will likely be the first series these playoffs where the Knicks are heavily favored. Many people had the Knicks beating the Pistons, but a significant amount of analysts and media personalities still picked the Pistons because they thought, for some reason, that Cade Cunningham would be the best player in the series. And, in the Knicks’ second-round matchup against the Celtics, they were considered heavy underdogs, with many thinking that the series wouldn’t even get to seven games. But things have flipped for the Knicks’ upcoming series against the Pacers.

Is it because the media and other fanbases have started to believe a bit more in the Knicks? Or is it because people don’t really believe in Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers? Truth be told, I’m not sure. But if I had to guess, it’s probably the latter. A lot of people outside of the Knicks fan base still believe that the Celtics were the superior team and that they simply just choked the series away. Meanwhile, a lot of the talk surrounding the Pacers has been about how Haliburton isn’t a star, or that they just aren’t good enough.

And I understand- to a degree. They lack the starpower, and championship pedigree that the Celtics have. They aren’t the Pistons, whose best player in Cade Cunningham is often ranked ahead of Haliburton, and whose defense and nothing-to-lose mentality were scary in their own way. They benefited even more than the Knicks did from playing two teams who were battling significant injuries. And people remember that the Pacers needed seven games to eliminate a hobbled Knicks team just a year ago. But I fear people are sleeping on the Pacers.

Indiana is a very good team. Let’s get that out of the way. The Pacers finished the season as one of the best offenses in basketball yet again, and they’ve only ramped up in the playoffs as seen above. They prioritize passing, fast reads, movement, and spacing resulting in a deadly offense that is admittedly fun to watch, and hard to stop. Unsurprisingly, they lead the postseason in passes made per game, assists per game, and assist percentage, and do so by quite a significant margin. And as you can see below, they also happen to be one of the best three-point shooting teams right now as well.

What makes this series incredibly interesting though is the fact that these two teams couldn’t be more different schematically, and philosophically. The Knicks, unlike the Pacers, prioritize slow, and deliberate possessions. They run more pick and rolls, more isolations, fewer cuts, and rely much more on creating advantages through individual talent. That has resulted in them being last in the postseason in assist percentage and ranking in the bottom half in assists per game, and passes made per game.

And the clear contrasting styles are on full display when looking at the best players, and the engines, of both teams. Haliburton is a more traditional point guard who puppeteers both opposing defenses, and his own teammates to create a controlled havoc filled with backdoor cuts, short rolls, and cross-court passes. And in Brunson, the Knicks have one of the deadliest one-on-one players in the league, who does more of his damage scoring the ball than he does as a passer. That’s not to say that Haliburton can’t, or won’t, win games with his scoring, or that Brunson can’t, or won’t, do the same with his passing. But it’s clear that both players go about impacting the game in completely different ways.

But for as much as everyone will talk about the marquee point guard matchup, this series may actually be decided by the big men. Not just a single one, but all of them. How will Karl-Anthony Towns hold up against a Pacers offense that should have a relatively easy time taking advantage of his defensive miscues? And will he be able to dominate enough offensively to negate his defensive woes? Can Mitchell Robinson, who is averaging the most offensive rebounds per minute ever during a postseason, overcome his past struggles against stretch fives, and have the kind of dominating series he just had against the Celtics? Conversely, can Myles Turner repeat the performance he had against the Knicks last postseason when he torched Isaiah Hartenstein and the Knicks? And can Pascal Siakam, who has been one of the best isolation scorers this postseason, continue to serve as an emergency option when they need a basket?

Prediction

The questions don’t end there. Do the Pacers risk unleashing the Towns pick-and-pop game by putting Turner on him, or do they dare put a smaller defender on him? Do they want to hide Haliburton on Hart, or do they want to put a center on him like other teams have? And on the Knicks’ side, will Tom Thibodeau play Deuce McBride more given his screen navigation skills, and spacing? When the Pacers screen with Towns’ man, will New York play drop coverage, or let Towns switch on to Haliburton, and pray that he’ll hold up more times than not? Will they go a bit deeper into their bench given the fast and frantic pace that the Pacers play with? How effective will the Knicks be against the Pacers’ full-court defense?

As you can see, both teams have some very tough decisions to make, which could mean that the series ultimately comes down to coaching. And that may be a bit of a scary thought for some Knicks fans. But I have the Knicks winning for a multitude of reasons. The Knicks have the best player in the series, and likely, the two best players in the series. After Brunson and Towns, it does get a bit more interesting, as Haliburton, Siakam, and Turner are probably three of the next four best players with Anunoby in there somewhere. But Bridges, if he can replicate, or even come close to the kind of impact he had in the Celtics series, is up there too, and we cannot overlook just how good Robinson, who missed last year’s series against the Pacers, has been either.

New York took this Pacers team to seven games last season with no Julius Randle, no Mitchell Robinson, and a hobbled Hart, and Anunoby. If they can take everything they’ve learned from the Pistons and Celtics series, and combine the physicality from the former, and the switching and defensive discipline from the latter, I think they just have too much in their favor.

I do want to stress once again though, if I wasn’t clear so far, that the Pacers are good, and they will test the Knicks in different ways than the Pistons, and Celtics did. Their offense looks unstoppable when it is rolling, and they have collective buy-in starting from their best player to the last player on their bench. They, and especially Haliburton, are exceptionally good down the stretch, and they are playing with a level of confidence that the Pistons and Celtics never seemed to fully find.

Ultimately, as has been the case in the first two series, I have the Knicks in six. And yes, I know in the roundtable, I picked them in seven. But I grow more confident by the day, that this team, which feels like one of destiny given the close games, and the Pope-Villanova connection, will pull through and make its first finals appearance since 1999.