- The New York Yankees look to even their ALDS series against the Toronto Blue Jays after a dramatic comeback victory in Game 3 to stave off elimination.
- The pitching matchup features the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler, who has been perfect in the postseason, against the Blue Jays’ Louis Varland, who was tagged with the loss in relief in the last game.
- Aaron Judge is on a torrid streak, hitting .636 in the series, and will look to exploit a Toronto bullpen that is struggling with injuries and performance.
The ankees, behind a heroic performance from their superstar slugger, stormed back from a five-run deficit in Game 3 to keep their season alive. Now, they turn to Cam Schlittler (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to even the series at home in a pivotal ALDS Game 4. Schlittler has been flawless in his limited postseason action, but he faces a potent Toronto lineup that has had some success against him in the past.
On the other side, the Jays are left reeling from a bullpen meltdown and costly defensive miscues that let a commanding lead slip away. They hand the ball to opener Varland (0-1, 6.75 ERA), who took the loss in the previous contest after surrendering two home runs. With their pitching staff depleted by injuries, the Blue Jays will need their offense to bounce back and provide early run support to silence the raucous Yankee Stadium crowd.
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Bet Type | Toronto Blue Jays Odds | New York Yankees Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-143) | -1.5 (+120) |
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total Runs | Over 8.5 (-106) | Under 8.5 (-114) |
Odds as of October 8th, 2025 from a consensus of sportsbooks.
The odds reflect the Yankees’ momentum and home-field advantage, positioning them as significant favorites to tie the series. The moneyline implies a 60.9% chance of a Yankees victory after removing the vig.
Moneyline (vig-free): New York Yankees ~60.9%, Toronto Blue Jays ~39.1%
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has moved decisively toward the Yankees since the lines opened. The Yankees’ moneyline shifted from -158 to -175, a significant 17-cent move indicating strong confidence from bettors. Conversely, the Blue Jays have drifted from +131 to +145, offering more value for underdog backers. The run line has also seen movement, with the price on the Yankees -1.5 improving from +134 to a more attractive +120, while the cost to take the Blue Jays +1.5 has increased from -162 to -143. The total has remained steady at 8.5 runs, though the juice on the Over has moved from +100 to -106.
This line movement is a direct reaction to the Yankees’ dramatic comeback in Game 3, fueled by Judge’s incredible performance and the Blue Jays’ bullpen collapse. Public betting splits show that while the ticket count on the moneyline is relatively even, a staggering 78% of the handle is on the Yankees, confirming that sharp money is backing the home team to even the series. The Blue Jays’ extensive injury list, particularly on their pitching staff, is another major factor driving this market sentiment.
Injury Reports for ALDS Game 4
Yankees
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oswaldo Cabrera | IF | Ankle | D60 | Loss of a versatile utility player, impacts defensive flexibility. |
| Brent Headrick | P | Forearm | D15 | Reduces left-handed options in the bullpen. |
| Gerrit Cole | P | Elbow | D60 | Ace is out for the season, a massive blow to the top of the rotation. |
| Clarke Schmidt | P | Forearm | D60 | Another starting pitcher lost, straining rotation and bullpen depth. |
| Jake Cousins | P | Elbow | D60 | Bullpen arm out for the season, thinning middle relief options. |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | P | Back | D15 | Absence of a key high-leverage reliever weakens the back end of the bullpen. |
Blue Jays
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Berríos | P | Elbow | D15 | Key starter sidelined, forcing bullpen games and stretching a thin staff. |
| Ty France | IF | Oblique | D10 | Corner infielder’s absence hurts lineup depth and run production. |
| Yimi García | P | Ankle | D60 | Significant loss of a reliable high-leverage reliever. |
| Bowden Francis | P | Shoulder | D60 | Another arm lost from the pitching staff, impacting depth. |
| Nick Sandlin | P | Elbow | D60 | Bullpen depth further tested with another reliever out. |
| Robinson Pina | P | Elbow | D60 | Loss of a depth arm for the pitching staff. |
| Ryan Burr | P | Shoulder | D60 | Reduces options for middle relief innings. |
| Angel Bastardo | P | Elbow | D60 | Young pitcher out for the season, affecting long-term depth. |
| Chris Bassitt | P | Back | D15 | Loss of a veteran starter creates a major hole in the postseason rotation. |
| Bo Bichette | IF | Knee | D10 | Star shortstop’s absence is a huge blow to the lineup’s power and defense. |
Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History
Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs. Cam Schlittler
Last 10 years | Games analyzed: 2 | Total at-bats: 28
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .800 | .800 | .800 | 1.600 |
| Addison Barger | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .500 | .600 | .500 | 1.100 |
| Nathan Lukes | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | .250 | .000 | .250 |
| Ernie Clement | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| George Springer | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .800 | .500 | 1.300 |
| Andrés Giménez | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| TOTALS | 23 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | .435 | .536 | .435 | .970 |
New York Yankees Career Statistics vs. Louis Varland
Last 5 years | Games analyzed: 4 | Total at-bats: 14
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .667 | 1.667 | 2.333 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ryan McMahon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 1.500 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ben Rice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Cody Bellinger | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Aaron Judge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 1.000 | .000 | 1.000 |
| TOTALS | 13 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .385 | .429 | .923 | 1.352 |
Batter Props
| PLAYER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOME RUNS | RBIs | RUNS SCORED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 (O -254 | U +184) | 1.5 (O -111 | U -121) | 0.5 (+187) | 0.5 (O +120 | U -162) | 0.5 (O -160 | U +116) |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 (O -189 | U +142) | 1.5 (O +116 | U -155) | 0.5 (+261) | 0.5 (O +128 | U -175) | 0.5 (O +111 | U -153) |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 (O -223 | U +165) | 1.5 (O +125 | U -169) | 0.5 (+437) | 0.5 (O +169 | U -228) | 0.5 (O +119 | U -164) |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 (O -251 | U +184) | 1.5 (O +118 | U -161) | 0.5 (+374) | 0.5 (O +172 | U -235) | 0.5 (O +118 | U -162) |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 (O -219 | U +161) | 1.5 (O +124 | U -172) | 0.5 (+358) | 0.5 (O +196 | U -275) | 0.5 (O +104 | U -142) |
MLB batter props as of October 8th, 2025 from a consensus of sportsbooks.
Pitcher Props
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS ALLOWED | HITS ALLOWED | PITCHER OUTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler (NYY) | 4.5 (O -158 | U +119) | 1.5 (O -111 | U -120) | 1.5 (O +115 | U -155) | 3.5 (O -133 | U -102) | 14.5 (O -110 | U -121) |
| Louis Varland (TOR) | 1.5 (O +190 | U -268) | 0.5 (O +165 | U -239) | N/A | 0.5 (O -200 | U +140) | N/A |
MLB pitcher props as of October 8th, 2025 from a consensus of sportsbooks.
Judge’s props are the main attraction. His total bases line is set at 1.5 with near even money, which looks appealing given he is slugging .688 on the season and is 7-for-11 in this series. For the pitchers, Varland’s extremely low lines (1.5 Ks, 0.5 ER, 0.5 HA) confirm he is likely being used as an opener for one inning at most, making his unders a strong possibility if he has a clean frame. Schlittler’s strikeout line of 4.5 is a focal point; while the Blue Jays have hit him well, the pressure of a playoff game could lead to more swing-and-miss stuff.
Picks & Prediction
The pitching matchup heavily favors the Yankees, not just because of the starters, but due to the overall health and stability of their staff compared to the Blue Jays. Schlittler has been a reliable option for New York, posting a 1-0 record and a 0.00 ERA in the postseason. While the Blue Jays lineup has a .435 career batting average against him in a small sample size, doing it under the bright lights of an elimination game at Yankee Stadium is a different challenge. For Toronto, Varland is coming off a rough relief appearance where he was tagged with the loss. His prop lines suggest he’ll have an extremely short leash, turning this into a bullpen game for a unit that is decimated by injuries to key arms like José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Yimi García. This is a recipe for disaster against a Yankees lineup that just hung nine runs on them.
The situational trends overwhelmingly support the Yankees. They are a staggering 10-1 in their last 11 home games as a favorite and 11-3 in their last 14 games as a favorite overall. Conversely, the Blue Jays have struggled mightily on the road, going just 1-5 in their last six away games. Offensively, the Yankees have all the momentum, led by an unstoppable Judge who seems to be on a mission. With the Blue Jays’ bullpen in disarray and their defense showing cracks, the Yankees are well-positioned to capitalize. The total has gone over in the last three head-to-head meetings, and with Toronto’s pitching woes, another high-scoring affair is likely.
Picks:
- New York Yankees Moneyline (-175)
- New York Yankees -1.5 (+120)
- Over 8.5 (-106)
Public Betting on Yankees vs Blue Jays
Public and sharp bettors are heavily aligned on the New York Yankees. While the ticket count on the moneyline is split nearly 50/50, 78.17% of the total money wagered is on the Yankees, a clear indicator that larger, more sophisticated bets are backing the home team. The public is also heavily on the Yankees run line, with 79.09% of bets taking the -1.5 spread. The total is seeing strong two-way action, with 81.72% of bets and 79.1% of the money on the Over 8.5 runs, suggesting a consensus belief in a high-scoring game driven by potent offenses and questionable pitching.
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disclaimer: AI helped in the creation of this story
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