Spencer Jones might be the most perplexing prospect in the Yankees‘ organization, as his high strikeout rates raise massive alarm bells, but unlike last year, he’s generating tons of home run power.
The contact rates are as bad as last year, but Jones is hitting the ball in the air and making better swing decisions, resulting in a monstrous .974 OPS in an Eastern League that’s been more pitcher-friendly in 2025.
Hitters in the Eastern League have a .365 SLG% and .679 OPS on average, and yet Jones is dominating in terms of results.
Launching his 14th home run of the season, he’s just three away from matching his 2024 total despite playing in just 44 games so far.
It raises some interesting questions about whether Jones can make it in the big leagues or not, and whether his abnormal combination of raw tools can result in a productive everyday regular.
Why Spencer Jones’ HR Barrage Could Catch the Yankees’ Attention
It can feel impossible to predict who will or won’t have success at the next level, and that’s why anomalies exist in this league.
Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz have displayed that highly questionable hit tools can be overlooked for elite-level raw power and athleticism, but Jones pushes that to the brink with his strikeout rates.
He has a 34.2% K%, and while the K% in the Eastern League (24.7%) is higher than in the Major Leagues (22.0%), you have to imagine those contact numbers will only get worse as he moves up the professional ladder.
I tried to find hitters with the outlier traits that Jones has, a K% above 34% and a ISO above .300, and the only two hitters to pop up (min. 200 PA) at the Double-A level since 2021 are Moises Gomez and Drew Lugbauer.
Neither player reached the Major Leagues, but it should be noted that neither played centerfield primarily, a position that the Yankees’ 2022 first-round pick handles extremely well.
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I tried to expend this search, looking for hitters with at least 130 plate appearances, and the only other hitter who popped up besides Spencer Jones was Trey Cabbage.
Cabbage reached the Major Leagues but his time there was brief, and he’s currently playing in the NPB as he hit .209 with a 58 wRC+ in 67 games.
He struck out in 40.8% of his plate appearances, and it’s safe to say that if Jones does that in the Major Leagues his time would also be pretty brief.
History would tell us that hitters of Jones’ mold do not end up making it or sticking at baseball’s highest level, but none of these examples have had teams consider their defensive and baserunning abilities.
While all three of the players I mentioned projected to be below-average in both regards, you can reasonably expect Spencer Jones to be a plus (or double plus) in those categories.
The @Yankees No. 2 prospect Spencer Jones makes a sliding catch in center to end the eighth! pic.twitter.com/dlLEOphiUZ
— Somerset Patriots (@SOMPatriots) April 19, 2025
Very quietly, Spencer Jones is stealing at a pace that would result in 34 stolen bases at an 83.3% success clip over 150 games.
He does an excellent job getting downhill and using his long legs to make massive strides, and the Yankees have allowed him to be an aggressive runner.
The arm is unreal, the range is good because of his aforementioned speed, and his tall frame allows him to bring down liners and flyballs that would sail over the heads of most outfielders.
We could be looking at a good defender at a premium position who also steals 20-30 bases a season efficiently.
Add on the fact that he has 14 home runs in just 184 plate appearances in one of the most run-depressed leagues in the Minor League circuit, and you have someone who could provide MLB value.
I find it utterly fascinating that Steamer projects him for a 36.9% strikeout rate as well; if he ran that strikeout rate he likely wouldn’t be a good hitter, but could he be league average with the power and patience he has?
Sure, pitchers wouldn’t be scared to death of going after him in the zone, but the home run power has to create some level of deterrence.
This is one of the weirdest prospects I’ve evaluated not just in the Yankees’ organization, but really in all of baseball.
His combination of whiffs and game power alone are unique, and none of his loose comparisons have the speed or defense he has.
With Jones cutting his groundball rate by 12.3% from last season, he’s hitting the ball in the air and on a line at a much higher rate than last season, and he has so much power that it almost always results in damage.
There’s no one like him in professional baseball, and that can allow him to challenge the expectations and projections we’d normally have for someone with his profile.
Maybe he ends up flaming out the way Moises Gomez, Trey Cabbage, and Drew Lugbauer did after leaving the Double-A level, or maybe his athletic tools allow him to contribute without the bat, giving him time to acclimate and hit bombs in the Bronx.
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