The top remaining free agent pitcher, Carlos Rodón, reportedly prefers the Yankees as his future club. They are interested in him as well, but the problem is that Rodón is seeking a deal of seven years or more at a significant salary while the club would prefer to keep it down to four or five years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they will try to find a compromise but that the Yanks will also be considering Nathan Eovaldi as a backup plan.
Starting pitchers have been flying off the board in recent weeks, leaving Eovaldi as one of the best ones still out there. Over the past few seasons, Eovaldi has oscillated between being a very effective hurler and extended injury absences. After establishing himself in the majors with the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees, he required Tommy John surgery late in 2016, wiping out the remainder of that season and the following one.
The Rays signed him for that 2017 season he was going to miss, with a $2MM option for 2018 that they eventually triggered. Up until that time, he had shown a powerful arm but without the strong results to match. He had a 4.21 ERA at that point in his career with a 17% strikeout rate. But 2018 proved to be a huge pivot point for him. He tossed 111 innings on the year with a 3.81 ERA and 22.2% strikeout rate. That included a midseason trade to the Red Sox, with Eovaldi going on to toss 22 1/3 innings in the postseason with a 1.61 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate, helping the club win the World Series.
Those postseason heroics resulted in him returning to the Sox on a four-year, $68MM deal. Over the course of that contract, he’s continued to produce strong results but also deal with injuries. In 2019, he missed significant time due surgery to clean up loose bodies in his elbow. He was only able to log 67 2/3 innings that season with a 5.99 ERA. He bounced back in the shortened 2020 campaign, making nine starts with a 3.72 ERA, though he did miss time due to a calf strain.
He stayed healthy in 2021 and made 32 starts, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate. In 2022, injuries caught him again, as he went to the IL twice, once for back inflammation and once for shoulder inflammation. He still made 20 starts on the year with a 3.87 ERA and 22.4% strikeout rate, strong results but a concerning step back that came with diminished velocity. He averaged around 97 MPH in the first three years of his Boston deal but dipped to 95.7 MPH in 2022.
Despite that injury track record and Eovaldi’s rejection of a qualifying offer, MLBTR still predicted he would land a solid two-year contract worth $34MM, or $17MM per season. The free agent market has generally been quite strong this offseason, with many players outpacing their projections. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Eovaldi, who turns 33 in February, push for a third year or a higher average annual salary. Outside of him and Rodón, some of the best remaining starters on the open market are Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski, Johnny Cueto, Drew Smyly and others. Those are still some quality arms but the options for a true impact upgrade for the rotation of a competitive team are dwindling.
For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need a starter, given that their rotation is in good shape. Ace Gerrit Cole should be followed by Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas, with one spot available for either Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt. Adding another pitcher like Rodón or Eovaldi would bump Germán and Schmidt down the chart while also providing some cover in case Severino or Montas struggle to stay healthy like they did in 2022.
The payroll might be an issue, however, as it’s been suggested that the club would prefer to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, which is $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would increase and the club would also see its top 2023 draft pick moved back ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll at $250MM with a CBT figure of $266MM. A mega deal for Rodón or even a more modest one for Eovaldi would send the club well beyond that third tier and could even push them close to the $293MM top tier. With other needs around the roster, including left field and the bullpen, whether the Yanks actually have an appetite for a rotation splurge remains to be seen.
Eovaldi has been connected to the Blue Jays this offseason, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. There’s also been rumors of a return to Boston though the latest reporting indicated he wasn’t a top priority for the club.