At the start of the 2025 season, it looked like the New York Yankees were headed toward an expensive decision with Luke Weaver. The veteran reliever was lights out in the first half, performing at a level that suggested he could command a sizable payday in free agency.
Now, as the season winds down, his second-half struggles have reshaped the narrative—and the Yankees may find themselves in position to keep him at a much friendlier cost.
A tale of two halves
Weaver’s early-season dominance made him one of the most reliable arms in the Yankees’ bullpen. Through 33 appearances and 34 innings before the All-Star break, he posted a 2.91 ERA, showing the command and poise expected from a closer who had been trusted with the highest-leverage moments. His fastball carried life, his strikeouts piled up, and there was little indication that a downturn was coming.
But baseball seasons are marathons, and the second half has not been as kind. Over 25 innings since the break, Weaver owns a 5.40 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. His strikeout rate, once a strength, has dipped to 10.07 per nine innings, and his ground ball percentage has dropped to 27.3%—nearly 10 points lower than last season. He’s also given up more home runs, particularly in spots with runners on base, a troubling trend for a pitcher expected to shut the door.
Contract leverage shifts
For the Yankees, Weaver’s regression may actually create an opportunity. Originally signed to a two-year, $4.5 million deal with a club option for 2025, his contract structure was a shrewd move by the front office. That deal allowed New York to benefit from his resurgence last season, while keeping their options open as he aged into his 30s.
Now 32, Weaver isn’t likely to attract the kind of market he once seemed destined for earlier this year. His velocity has begun to dip, and opposing hitters are making better contact when they do put the ball in play. That profile doesn’t scream “high-dollar closer,” which could work to the Yankees’ advantage when negotiations begin this offseason.
Experience still matters
Despite his late-season downturn, Weaver brings intangibles that can’t be overlooked. He’s pitched in October, including a World Series, and the value of playoff-tested arms in the bullpen can’t be overstated. In high-pressure environments, experience is often the separator between relievers who thrive and those who crumble.
Even if Weaver is no longer the dominant arm he appeared to be in April and May, he can still provide meaningful innings in 2026. The key for the Yankees will be ensuring that his next deal reflects his current trajectory rather than his peak numbers.
A pragmatic path forward
The Yankees know bullpen construction is always volatile. Just ask Jonathan Loaisiga, whose injuries derailed what once looked like a long-term solution in relief. Weaver’s regression may feel like a setback, but it also presents the front office with a chance to retain him at a manageable cost.
For a team with postseason ambitions, Weaver’s mix of experience and familiarity with the Bronx could still make him a valuable piece—just not one they should break the bank for.