The Yankees are expected to meet with free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo this week, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Nimmo is attending the Winter Meetings in San Diego in order to have this very type of face-to-face meeting.
Interest in Nimmo isn’t necessarily indicative of any pessimism regarding the Yanks’ ongoing efforts to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman writes that the team is hoping to secure two outfielders this winter, and while Judge and Nimmo represent the two most expensive options on the market, they also represent the top two talents. It’s only natural that losing Judge would theoretically increase New York’s urgency to then lure Nimmo away from their crosstown rivals, but interest in one does not strictly depend on the other’s situation.
Nimmo, who’ll turn 30 near the end of Spring Training, is a sensible target for the Yankees, regardless of Judge’s eventual decision. The Yankees’ seven-year extension for center fielder Aaron Hicks has proven to be a misstep, as Hicks has been oft-injured throughout the life of the deal and has seen his defensive ratings in center decline. The 2022 season actually marked the first time that Judge has played primarily center field, and his shift to center was borne largely out of injuries and poor performance from Hicks. The Yankees could have turned things over to young Estevan Florial for a larger look, but despite a solid showing in Triple-A, the team gave Florial just 35 big league plate appearances, during which time he went 3-for-31 with 13 strikeouts.
Adding Nimmo would give the Yankees a clear-cut everyday option in center, where his defensive ratings have improved considerably over the past two seasons in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (1), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.5) and Outs Above Average (9).The former No. 13 overall draft pick would also give the Yankees a high-OBP, relatively low-strikeout option to bat atop or near the top of the order, and the appeal of taking any left-handed hitter and allowing him to reap the benefits of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch has obvious allure.
Over the past three seasons, Nimmo has turned in a collective .280/.384/.443 batting line with 32 home runs, 55 doubles, 13 triples, an impressive 12.3% walk rate and a lower-than-average 18.5% strikeout rate. He’s been 38% better than a league-average offensive player in that span, by measure of wRC+, due largely to his elire on-base skills. Of the 342 players to tally at least 500 plate appearances since 2020, only six have reached base at a higher rate than Nimmo: Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Judge, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt.
Injuries have been the primary knock on Nimmo throughout his career, as he’d only played in 100 games one time entering the 2022 season (though he did appear in 55 of 60 contests during the shortened 2020 campaign). He enjoyed his healthiest season to date in 2022, however, logging a career-high 151 games. The injury history on Nimmo is long, as he’s missed time with knee, foot, neck, hamstring and finger injuries in addition to a partially collapsed lung in 2017. For all those injuries, he’s only been on the 60-day IL once in his career, when he missed 104 days due to a neck injury in 2019.
Checkered health history notwithstanding, it’s an extraordinarily thin market for center fielders this winter, with Nimmo standing as the only true everyday option who’s coming off a strong season (assuming one still considers Judge more of a right fielder). Nimmo has been an excellent offensive player, a solid defender and, in recent seasons, more durable on the whole, appearing in just shy of 78% of possible games dating back to 2020. The general expectation is that he’ll secure a nine-figure contract — perhaps even one that pushes to six years in length.
Pairing Nimmo and Judge could very well tack $60MM or more in luxury-tax obligations onto the Yankees’ 2023 ledger, which currently sits at a projected $222.2MM, per Roster Resource. A Judge/Nimmo pairing would skyrocket the Yankees from a bit shy of the luxury tax all the way to the third tier of penalization and place them within arm’s reach of the newly implemented fourth tier, which kicks in at $293MM this coming season. Of course, that number could be whittled down by finding a taker for Hicks or Josh Donaldson on the trade market (though the Yankees would surely have to pay down some of their remaining commitments), or perhaps by shopping any of the team’s pricier arbitration-eligible players (e.g. Gleyber Torres, Isiah Kiner-Falefa).
Nimmo rejected a $19.65MM qualifying offer from the Mets and would thus cost the Yankees, who paid the luxury tax in 2022, their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft, as well as a $1MM reduction in the size of their 2023 bonus pool for international amateur free agents. In addition to the Yankees, he’s been linked to the Mariners, Blue Jays, Giants, Rays and incumbent Mets.