The New York Yankees knew the risk of going all-in during the Wild Card series — and now, they’re about to feel the ripple effect. After emptying their rotation tank against the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees will hand the ball to Luis Gil on Saturday to open the ALDS against the Toronto Blue Jays.
It’s a bold choice. Maybe even a desperate one.
Gil, just 27 years old, has flashed brilliance before — the kind that makes you think he could one day sit atop a rotation. But he’s also been unpredictable, the kind of arm that can look untouchable one week and completely lost the next. For a Yankees team riding high off a gritty Wild Card win, they’ll need Gil’s best version to show up when it matters most.
The highs and lows of Luis Gil’s season
Gil’s 2025 campaign has been a mixed bag. Coming off an electric 2024 season that earned him the American League Rookie of the Year award, he entered this year with big expectations. Unfortunately, injuries derailed that momentum, limiting him to just 57 innings.
When he’s on, Gil is electric — a high-velocity righty who can overwhelm hitters with late life and confidence. His 3.32 ERA this season reflects his ability to limit damage even when command wavers. But the cracks have been hard to ignore. His strikeouts dipped from a solid 10.15 per nine innings in 2024 to just 6.47 this season, while his walk rate ballooned to 5.21.
The analytics paint an equally troubling picture. Gil ranks in the first percentile in chase rate and just the second percentile in walk rate — numbers that signal serious command issues. In essence, the stuff is there, but the precision hasn’t followed.
Why the Yankees are betting on volatility
Still, there’s a certain appeal to Gil’s unpredictability — like a volatile stock with sky-high potential. On any given day, he can look like a Cy Young candidate. The Yankees are hoping that Saturday is one of those days.
Their alternative was 26-year-old right-hander Will Warren, who had a respectable but uneven 2025 season, throwing 162.1 innings with a 4.44 ERA. Warren’s steadiness could’ve been tempting, but the Yankees opted for upside. In postseason baseball, it’s often the wild cards — no pun intended — that change everything.
Gil’s fastball-heavy arsenal gives him a fighting chance against a Blue Jays lineup that thrives on timing and punishing mistakes. His challenge will be to command his heater early and stay ahead in counts. When he falls behind, his walk issues tend to snowball — and that’s when things unravel.
The absence of Gerrit Cole looms large
Of course, there’s an unavoidable truth here: the Yankees would much rather have Gerrit Cole taking the mound. Their ace continues to rehab and remains unavailable, leaving the team without its most dependable arm when the stage is brightest.
Cole’s absence puts added pressure on the rest of the rotation — Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, and rookie phenom Cam Schlittler — all of whom have already been used. With the bullpen taxed from the Red Sox series, Gil’s ability to give length could dictate how the rest of the ALDS unfolds.
A high-stakes roll of the dice
It’s a calculated risk. The Yankees could’ve gone with stability in Warren, but instead, they’re swinging for upside with Gil — the kind of pitcher who might give up two home runs in the first inning or carry a no-hitter into the seventh.
Manager Aaron Boone knows it’s a gamble, but that’s what postseason baseball demands. Sometimes, you trust the arm with firepower and hope the moment doesn’t swallow him.
The Yankees have ridden momentum into the ALDS. Now they’ll ride volatility — and Luis Gil’s unpredictable brilliance — as their postseason push continues north of the border.