Cody Bellinger and Tatsuya Imai are two of the players I’ve heard the most smoke about in regards to the Yankees‘ offseason thinking.
It’s easy to see why they’d want Bellinger back, a left-handed hitting outfielder who can play an excellent left field with good offensive production.
For Imai, the interest goes beyond the wicked slider and funky fastball, as he represents a chance for the Yankees to get back into the Japanese market with a splash.
With Trent Grisham back, the Yankees’ payroll sits at roughly $280 million towards the Luxury Tax, meaning an addition of both players could push that number at or above $330 million.
It would be by far the largest payroll the Yankees have ever ran, and its before adding pieces to either the bullpen or bench, so will they have to wind up whiffing on one to land the other?
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What Are the Yankees’ Plans With Cody Bellinger and Tatsuya Imai?
Cody Bellinger is an intruging player on this market due to his volatility on a year-to-year basis, with Steamer projecting him to regress to a 115 wRC+ for the 2026 season.
It’s not the kind of hitter you’d comfortably fork over a nine-figure contract for, but his 2025 season was worth the big bucks that he’s going to search for this winter.
I believe the Yankees going to seriously pursue the left-handed hitting outfielder, but teams across the league are going to operate with hesistancy given how often his production can fluctuate annually.
Furthermore, teams hand out contracts by projecting a player’s value over the course of that deal, trying to find a number that both entices the player while being a worthwhile investment for the organization.
We know that Cody Bellinger’s batted ball profile is boosted by Yankee Stadium to a degree that’s hard to replicate in most ballparks, and its why I have a hard time believing teams will offer more money than the Yankees.
Take how FanGraphs’ Depth Charts uses projections as an example; when Trent Grisham hit free agency they projected a 106 wRC+ and that improved to a 108 when he took the QO due to the Park Factor in the Bronx benfitting him.
The Mets’ model will likely bake in a Park Factor that decreases his projected OPS from where the Yankees’ model could have him at, and I think that’ll reflect in the offers teams across the league make.
I think he can be had at a reasonable pricepoint, not the inflated price that many are speculating for Bellinger, as a lot of these reports are coming out at a time where teams are only just starting to have these kinds of conversations.
Position players who hit free agency at 30 years old tend to max out at around $150 million to $175 million, with Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Aaron Judge being exceptions among active contracts.
The Bogaerts contract will serve as a warning to teams attempting to sign Cody Bellinger, who had his numbers inflated by Yankee Stadium, since those teams don’t have as short of a porch in right field.
If the Yankees offer $150 million over six years I think they end up with Bellinger, but maybe (like with Bogaerts) a team gets crazy and gives him a number that the Yankees would be foolish to match.
As for Tatsuya Imai, I think his unique situation could make the Yankees far more willing to drive the payroll to lengths we have never seen before.
When the Yankees acquired Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo, the team made a $300 million offer over eight years to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and their only notable financial addtion after he signed was Marcus Stroman.
If the team had inked Yamamoto instead of Stroman, they would have pushed an Opening Day payroll north of $330 million, and the reason Hal Steinbrenner was willing to do this is because of the revenue that Japanese talent brings in.
The Yankees, who could have signed Blake Snell to a pillow contract at a lesser AAV if they just waited a few more weeks, were completely disinterested in the left-hander.
Tatsuya Imai is not the typical free agent in the Yankees’ eyes; he’s someone who could increase revenue for the team with sponsorships from Japan for an incredibly massive media market like New York.
For the organization, they’re aware that this could be a large investment for 2026 that could bear fruit for their future, and I think there’s a world where they acquire both.
I’d bet on one or the other instead of both if I had to, but their desire for both of these players in the same winter existed as they were aware that Trent Grisham could accept a $22.025 million contract for the 2026 season.
To accuse Brian Cashman of gambling the odds of having his ideal offseason (Bellinger-Imai) for a fourth round pick would be pretty outlandish, a theory that simply doesn’t have legs.
We’ll see what the Yankees do, but reports of the team staying under $300 million seem off-base given what I’ve heard from people with knowledge of their situation.
What’s more likely is that the team will maintain a payroll similar to the one they had entering the 2025 season (~$308 million) with Imai being a piece who could