Devin Williams has envoked a lot of emotions for Yankees fans, most of them being negative to the point that there’s unease when he steps on the mound.
It’s not unwarranred; Williams has a -0.30 Win Probabilty Added, meaning the Yankees have lost more games because of his impact on the team.
From 2020-2024, no reliever in baseball had a higher Win Probability Added than he did, but 2025 had been a completely different story for the All-Star closer.
While his struggles in New York are well-documented, the underlying data and some recent adjustments suggest he’s one of the best relievers on the staff, and Aaron Boone may have to switch up his trust tree.
The Yankees’ bullpen has been horrific as of late, but with this recent surge from Devin Williams, they could have the face of their unexpected regression step up in their biggest games.
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Devin Williams’ Changeup Is the Key to Saving the Yankees’ Bullpen
There was a point in the season where Devin Williams had won his closer job back and looked like the ninth-inning guy for the Yankees.
A brutal start to his second half would see him demoted once again, and it reached a point where Devin Williams had a sub-20% K-BB% with a Barrel% allowed at 10% after a meltdown in extra innings against the Astros.
It’s not the kind of profile that should result in an ERA nearing 6.00, but it also isn’t the kind of profile that we’re accoustomed to seeing from the star closer.
Being rattled by struggles is human; everyone knows the feeling of pressure that mounts as you feel yourself in a seemingly inescapable rutt.
Whether it’s playing sports, struggling through a test that holds a large weight on your grade, or having a big project at work with a deadling closing in, pressure can suffocate all of us.
Devin Williams may have been gasping for air while being crushed by the pressure of New York, but a recent turnaround could salavge what’s been a disastrouts season.
Since a disastrous outing on August 8th against the Astros in the Bronx, Devin Williams has had a lower arm angle, adding more depth to his changeup and making him impossible to hit.
His changeup’s Stuff+ increased from 122 to 132, and it’s resulted in improvements in two key areas for the former All-Star.
Devin Williams has reduced his xSLG% from .373 to .185 while increasing his Whiff% from 35.9% to 42.6%, becoming one of the best relievers on the planet once again.
When the aforementioned blow-up against Houston occurred, it had increased Devin Williams’ xwOBA against to .310, suggesting he should be a smidge better than league-average on the mound.
Since that point in time, he’s posted a .191 xwOBA, which suggests he should be the best pitcher on the planet on a per rate basis.
One of the biggest things working for Devin Williams is that he’s getting hot at the right time, the Yankees have simply ran out of relievers they can rely on right now.
Fernando Cruz has hit the skids, Luke Weaver has been awful since returning from injury, Mark Leiter Jr. can’t get whiffs consistently anymore, Camilo Doval’s season has spiraled out of control, and there isn’t a big name on the way back.
I still believe in Cruz and Weaver to be effective arms, but the numbers indicate that Devin Williams should be the best of that trio.
David Bednar is the closer and it should remain that way, but can the Yankees really afford to not use one the guy who’s had the best career of the bunch?
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I’d even go as far as to say that a strong finish to his season and a productive playoff run should result in the team prioritizing Devin Williams in free agency over Luke Weaver.
This situation reminds me of when Josh Hader had a 5.22 ERA in 2022 and was awful with the Padres initially, but a strong finish to his season resulted in the team trusting him as the playoff closer.
Hader pitched in five games and struck out over 55% of batters faced without allowing an earned run,, helping the Padres get to the NLCS.
You could also look at what Clay Holmes did last year, pitching to a 2.25 ERA in 13 appearances for the Yankees in their World Series run.
While Devin Williams has an ERA significantly higher than Holmes’ in 2024, the Mets’ starter had a -1.67 Win Probability Added that season, meaning he cost the Yankees -1.2 more wins than Williams has in 2025.
Devin Williams is 16th in K-BB% and 20th in SIERA this season, only David Bednar and Fernando Cruz has outpitched him in those two metrics on this current bullpen.
I know that it’s hard to trust him. You’re likely a fan of the Yankees if you’re reading this, and just like you, I am a fan who can’t let go of the emotions that tell me to hold onto my chair when he’s on the mound.
Most people reading this have wanted to see Devin Williams pitch elsewhere at various points throughout the season, but with where things are at right now with him and this bullpen, the numbers tell us to bet on him correcting course over most of the staff.