Run prevention is a weird and oftentimes unpopular term used for the Yankees, but I think it’s underdiscussed on the public side of things.
Imagine this; the team that led baseball in OPS and Runs Scored saw a stepback in the postseason, but are we overreacting to seven games too much?
While the Yankees are expected to regress offensively, and I do think they should add another bat, they project to hit 227 HRs and post a 110 wRC+, it’s hard for them to be considered a poorly constructed offense right now.
They have the most projected Batting WAR in MLB (29.6) on FanGraphs, but on the pitching side they project to be more of a mediocre group.
Projected to have a middle-of-the-pack rotation and a solid-not-great bullpen, they’re one injury or two away from having massive issues in their staff, and it’s why they need to ensure they make big pitching additions.
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Why the Yankees Could Full-Court Press the Pitching Market
Last season the Yankees’ rotation finished with an excellent 3.61 ERA, but the other underlying metrics suggested this group was very fortunate to produce that number.
Their xFIP and K-BB%, which are metrics that better predict future run prevention, graded out as average in contrast which reared its ugly head in the postseason.
Missing bats is a big part of being an excellent pitching staff, and the Yankees could immediately address that rotational need by signing Tatsuya Imai in the free agent market.
Sources have told Empire Sports Media that the team is expected to heavily pursue the right-hander, although this is by no means a guarantee that the player will end up in the Bronx.
If they were to sign Imai, it would serve as both an upgrade for the rotation and a clear lane to go add to their bullpen on the trade market.
The Milwaukee Brewers could explore a trade of a reliever such as Trevor Megill to free up some payroll according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, New York would surely benefit from adding him to their bullpen.
Megill posted a 2.49 ERA and 31.3% K% this past season while sitting 99.1 MPH on his fastball, he would be an elite-level eighth-inning option that could wipeout opposing lineups.
Could the Yankees roll the dice on a lower-cost pitcher such as Gregory Soto to add a power lefty to their bullpen with big strikeout numbers to give them one of the nastiest bullpens in the game?
This blueprint directly tackles the team’s pitching needs, and if they were to go after Cody Bellinger in a world where they sign Tatsuya Imai, I’m not sure Soto and Megill are pricing them out of that bidding war.
Suddenly the Yankees are a right-handed bench bat away from forming combining one of the 10 best rotations in the game with a top 5 bullpen, and a lot of the arms on the roster have upside to improve with their pitching infastructure.
The Yankees had their worst Stuff+ as a team (103) and worst K-BB% as a team (14.5%) under Matt Blake in 2025, a reflection of having their second-lowest fastball velocity (93.3), only ahead of the 2024 squad.
It’s not the pitching coach who caused these issues either, the team walked into the 2025 season with a bottom-half rotation in projection systems after the loss of Gerrit Cole.
Injuries have eaten into the pitching staff’s velocity, talent, and depth, but on the hitting side they’ve found gem after gem and James Rowson has consistently put together strong groups.
During the regular season they were third in Runs Scored vs playoff teams and second in OPS, but their pitching staff was bottom 10 in ERA and 19th in K-BB% in those matchups.
Looking at the postseason while Rowson’s been the hitting coach, the Yankees have the third-best AVG (.236) and OPS (.734) among teams who have participated in October.
On the otherhand, the Yankees’ pitching staff is 12th in ERA among 17 teams (4.16) and in K-BB% as well (12.3%), the offense has absorbed a lot of the blame that pitchers and pitching talent deficinecy have created.
The Diamondbacks and Dodgers are the only two teams with more Runs Scored than the Yankees since they made the change at hitting coach, and New York is ninth in batting average (.249) over that stretch as well.
Projections, recent performance, and underlying metrics all like the hitting group but are tame about the pitching staff, and it’s why the Yankees need to make big changes on the pitching side of things.