Dax Kilby was selected in the first-round of the 2025 MLB Draft but he was selected outside of the top 30 due to the Yankees’ Luxury Tax penalties.
His name was called after 38 other prospects, and yet Kilby finds himself ranked as one of the best prospects in that class with only 18 games under his belt.
Is this a case of big-market bias influencing scouts to buy into a Yankee prospect that they’re hoping to trade away at the deadline?
Not only does this notion of big-market bias often get boiled down to conspiracy and logical fallacy, but Dax Kilby has all the chops of a legitimate no. 1 prospect in a system and has deserved his meteoric rise in stock.
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Dax Kilby is Trending Towards Yankees’ Top Prospect Slot
The Yankees’ selection of Dax Kilby has brought some strong early reviews as in his first 18 games in Single-A we saw a nice blend of excellent contact quality and a high contact quantity.
If he can keep making contact in-zone while hitting the ball hard, he could be the kind of prospect that can rise up the system quickly despite his age.
You could see the Yankees push the 19-year-old shortstop to High-A Hudson Valley to open the 2026 season where a strong start could make him a pretty unprecedented riser for prospect norms.
People inside the organization were thrilled to see him produce at the level he did, and while there are questions about his viability at shortstop, the bat provides an immense amount of upside.
Last season George Lombard Jr. had reached Double-A just weeks before turning 20 years old, and the Yankees are hoping to have another teenage infield prospect reach that level in 2026.
Lombard and Kilby represent the two best prospects in the organization with opposite skillsets, as the former is lauded more on his elite defense at shortstop and projectable raw power.
On the otherhand you have the left-handed hitting infielder who doesn’t look like a big-league shortstop, but has a level swing that produces low strikeout rates and high contact rates on fastballs especially.
Both could shape up to be impact big leaguers down the line, and both could be competing for the top prospect spot in the organization.