The Yankees will be adding an outfielder a lot sooner than fans likely expected, as Trent Grisham is coming back and it does serve as a wrecking ball to a lot of plans.
What I initially felt was worry about the team’s following moves; does it take them out of Cody Bellinger? What about Tatsuya Imai? Will one now affect the desire for the other?
It’s fair to say that this move shattered the visions for the winter that we as fans were looking at, but that doesn’t mean the organization was blindsided here either.
Grisham, who enjoyed a career-best season with 34 home runs and 3.2 WAR in 2025, is a player whom the organization clearly believed would be a good buy at that pricepoint, or else they never would have offered it in the first place.
It was a career-year, one that I expect he will never replicate again, but the data indicates he made massive skill improvements across the board, and projections buy into his ability to match the contract.
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Trent Grisham’s Return Didn’t Catch the Yankees Off-Guard
We first need to re-establish why teams hand out the Qualifying Offer, as while it seems to be rooted in the desire to pick up additional draft compensation, no team is gambling $22 million on a draft pick outside of the top 30.
The real reason that teams hand out the Qualifying Offer is because they believe the free agent is worth that one-year contract and if they were to take it, they’d view it as fair value for the player.
Why would any organization make an offer to a player if they knew that player taking it would make them upset or ruin their offseason plans?
Now that Trent Grisham is back, the Yankees have a leadoff hitter who can play centerfield and hit over 20 home runs and run an OBP around .330.
Grisham was one of the best performing hitters of the 2025-2026 FA class, hitting 34 home runs with a 125 OPS+, but he also had some of the best underlying data as well.
xwOBA is not a predictive stat; it doesn’t predict what will happen, rather it describes what should have happened, but it’s more stable on a year-to-year basis than a metric like OPS is.
Age won’t work too hard against Grisham here given that he’ll go from age-28 to age-29 and has seen a 0.5 MPH increase in bat speed, and while his defense/baserunning took a hit, you wonder if his hamstring injury on June 29th hurt it.
The centerfielder recorded all of his -3 Fielding Run Value from July onward, there’s a chance he’s closer to league-average as a defender in 2026, so there’s room to buy into a defensive improvement and an above-average bat.
Steamer projects a 2.0 WAR and 18 home runs for Trent Grisham in 110 games next year, sporting an above-average 106 wRC+, and he’ll take over for Spencer Jones on their projected depth charts.
If he plays as many games as he did this past season (143 games), that would put him at 23 home runs and 2.5 WAR, which would be a solid outcome for a centerfielder.
What matters about this signing to me isn’t whether Trent Grisham is capable of being a ~2-3 WAR player, it’s about how New York goes about the rest of their winter.
The Yankees Need to Remain On-Track With Their Offseason Plan
At the top of the Yankees’ wish list should remain an impact hitter for the outfield and an an impact starter, but now they can approach addressing its outfield in numerous ways.
I still view Cody Bellinger as a big part of those plans, the team wouldn’t have offered Trent Grisham the Qualifying Offer if they believed him taking it would limit their ability to bid for the player.
The team and organization like him, especially in a left field role, which is why I don’t think the team is upset at the fact he picked up the $22.025 million deal.
Bellinger in left field is an elite-level defender, and his bat is capable of providing between a 115-120 OPS+ lineup, and that combined with Trent Grisham is giving you between 5-6 WAR production from the non-Judge outfield spots.
What I think makes-or-breaks the move for me is whether they’ll remain interested in Tatsuya Imai, who has the stuff to become a no. 2 starter and make a serious impact on the rotation.
Other names could fill that hole in the staff, although I do believe the team likes Imai and will make a spirited effort for his services, wherever that takes them.
Aggressive pursuit does not ensure landing the player and the player’s desires remain unknown; if the Yankees land the right-hander at a reasonable cost they could end up getting Bellinger and doing so for under $50 million.
If they get priced out on either player (or both players), they can pivot in the trade market or with other free agents, perhaps it’s Cody Bellinger and Freddy Peralta or Ian Happ and Tatsuya Imai.
Both iterations of the Yankees would be strong rosters on-paper depending on how the bullpen is addressed, it just comes down to Hal Steinbrenner’s pockets.