In most years, an ALDS exit being followed by the Yankees making it fairly obvious that running it back is their play with the roster would be headline news.
To some, this offseason is shaping up to be a disaster, bringing back players such as Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger who will likely see their OPS+ numbers regress from the year prior.
It’s not unfair to worry about rolling out the same roster that got trounced by the Blue Jays, but I also believe this 2025 season wasn’t a year full of poor decisions and bad process.
Along the way, New York made mistakes that led to them not winning the American League East, but ultimately those mistakes weren’t the ones that cost them the ALDS as a whole.
In any public setting, Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman praised the roster they assembled last season, and by most metrics it was one of their better groups, so is running it back really the worst idea in the world?
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Are the Dangers of Running It Back Too High For the Yankees?
When looking at the 2025 Yankees, what cost them the American League East was their pitching staff, namely a bullpen that struggled to hold onto leads or keep games close.
Despite an unexpected blockbuster trade for Devin Williams, the Yankees finished with a +1.96 Win Probability Added from their relievers, which ranked in the bottom half of the league.
Furthermore their defense was worse than expected, with Anthony Volpe being in the middle of their weird infield defense issues during the summer.
Offensively, the team got more value than expected, finishing first in OPS and Runs Scored while being third in Win Probability Added as a team.
New York’s position players and starting pitching helped guide them to 94 wins, the same number as they had last season, but they did falter in October.
Los Angeles won the World Series with a .309 wOBA while the Yankees were knocked out of the ALDS while having a .300 wOBA in the postseason, what truly hurt New York was their pitching.
The Yankees were roughly average offensively in the postseason, which is objectively a letdown given that they were so dominant in the regular season, but this kind of analysis can lead to some bad decisions in free agency.
A strong postseason led to the Red Sox paying Walker Buehler over $20 million for 2025, a contract that blew up in their face and prevented them from making a different move for their rotation.
Jurickson Profar, who had a similar breakout year to Trent Grisham with his 139 wRC+ and 4.3 WAR ended up producing a mere 49 wRC+ during the postseason, which might have hurt his market.
The same conversations being had now about how Grisham was exposed by good pitching were had about Profar, and the player proceeded to get popped for PEDs and still produce a 121 OPS+.
It is irrespsonsible to use postseason numbers to decide who should or should not remain on the roster after the season, Aaron Judge couldn’t buy a hit in October from 2022-2024, but was unstoppable in 2025.
These things are ultimately random, whether we believe that’s just an excuse or not doesn’t make it any less true, and it would be irresponsible for the Yankees to determine that last year’s offense wasn’t good because of October.
Where I do agree with concerns about running it back is that there’s a low chance the team repeats the incredible performances of the 2025 season.
I’d project numerous players from last year’s team to take a stepback offensively, but if put back together they’d project very favorably.
Right now FanGraphs projects the Yankees to have the most valuable position player group at 29.4 WAR, and addition of Cody Bellinger gives them one of the strongest rosters on-paper in the sport.
The worry I would have is about the team running it back with the same pitching staff and hoping that a Gerrit Cole return from TJS will make them better.
Max Fried is a very good pitcher, and Cam Schlittler could be a very good pitcher, but beyond that the Opening Day rotation looks pretty weak.
Luis Gil and Will Warren project to be backend starters, and guys like Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole project closer to a no. 2-3 starter than an ace who finishes inside the top-10 in Cy Young voting.
Perhaps those are harsh projections, but they’re reasonable for two pitchers who are well past the age of 30 and underwent a notable surgery on their pitching elbows.
Underlying metrics that try to estimate what should have happened (not what will happen) determined that the Yankees were more of a slightly-above-average pitching staff last season.
Adding a significant piece to this group could take a group that was fortunate to prevent runs to the degree it did and make them a true force in 2026.
I’d recommend the team either sign someone like Tatsuya Imai or trade for a pitcher such as Pablo Lopez, two guys who can be no. 2 starters on a postseason contender.
Brian Cashman should also add to his bullpen, since the guys you’d expect to improve from 2025 include Devin Williams who is not on the team right now.
Running it back is a phrase often used in a negative connotation, but I believe the 2025 team had a good position player group that should remain good in 2026, and pitching is a greater need in my estimation.