With the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes over, all eyes are turned towards Cody Bellinger who was the second-best outfield free agent and the Yankees‘ top target.
The Mets and Blue Jays aren’t rumored to be engaged in a serious real-deal pursuit, but the existing gap in talks is objectively leaving the door open for another team to swoop in and get crazy for his services.
I do ultimately expect the Yankees to end up with Cody Bellinger on that five-year $155 million deal with bells and whistles added to it to incentivize him, but what if they don’t?
Instead of going over what I would do, here are three players the Yankees should completely avoid in free agency especially if Bellinger ends up changing teams this winter.
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Don’t Fall For the Nostalgia With Harrison Bader
Harrison Bader on the surface makes so much sense given how elite of a defender he is and the role he played on the Phillies and Twins as a centerfielder and left fielder.
The Yankees have been linked to him already by Jack Curry, but if the team ends up losing Cody Bellinger they should be staying away from him in the free agent market.
His .346 wOBA is matched with a .297 xwOBA and while his ability to pull the ball in the air makes him overperform on some flyballs, there are some serious red flags in the profile that indicate he had a very fortunate season.
Bader produced the second-highest BABIP in MLB (.359) trailing only Aaron Judge, who crushes the baseball and as a result can consistently produce these high hit expectancy batted balls.
There’s reason to believe he’ll go back to being around a 90-95 OPS+ bat, which in centerfield could be incredibly valuable with his defensive profile, but he does not hit lefties as well as people think.
Last season Bader’s .302 wOBA was barely higher than Trent Grisham’s (.294) against lefties, and in the last four seasons he owns a mere .303 wOBA in those matchups.
The Yankees need some more lineup balance and if they lose Cody Bellinger a platoon in left field would be a good idea, but they should avoid bringing in a right-handed hitter who doesn’t scare southpaws much anymore.
Luis Arraez Still Has Zero Logical Fit on the Yankees
No one has shown serious interest in Luis Arraez it seems, who is a three-time batting champion and on the surface feels like a nice additional bat for a contender to add.
I’m not against adding a contact-oriented hitter because there is some credence to the idea that having swing path diversity in a lineup could make them a tougher matchup for top-flight pitchers.
That being said, adding a slow, lumbering, and regressing first baseman who doesn’t have the defensive chops to play a corner spot or middle infield spot well is a horrendous idea for this roster.
Furthermore, Arraez has a 90 wRC+ and .673 OPS in his career against southpaws, so this just doesn’t have any sort of fit on their roster.
If Luis Arraez was a better defensive player I’d be more of a fan, I think there’s some low-hanging fruit with his offensive profile since his steep decline in OPS can be correlated to worsening swing decisions.
Some team should add him if they need cheap offense at first base or DH and just see if they can get him back to the ~115 OPS+ hitter I think exists somewhere, but that team should 100% not be the Yankees.
The Red Sox Would Be Thrilled to See the Yankees ‘Steal’ This Starter
Jon Morosi and Jon Heyman have both linked the Yankees to Lucas Giolito, and while I consider it highly unlikely they sign him as Jack Curry has been drumming that notion all winter, I do want to emphasize this is a bad fit.
I know Lucas Giolito is usually an innings muncher and there’s some value in that, but his 4.59 xFIP and 10.6% K-BB% are indications that he is a below-average starter at this point.
His 3.41 ERA was a complete mirage and while I’m sure the market is going to respond accordingly to the massive decrease in K-BB%, I don’t think there’s really any upside in this kind of addition.
Luis Gil and Will Warren both have more to provide in the strikeout department and are cheaper, trading either to make room for Giolito and improve the roster elsewhere would underwhelm me.
Add on a season-ending elbow issue that he had and a Tommy John Surgery in 2024, and there’s real injury risk baked into this as well.
If the Yankees want someone who is more of a veteran innings eater as a no. 3-4 starter that’s fine, but they should go with Chris Bassitt or Zack Littell if they make the unlikely decision to sign a starter.