The Yankees are hoping that star veteran pitcher Gerrit Cole is able to make a much more positive impact than some people anticipated entering the 2026 season. Cole, 35, is coming off surgery to reconstruct his elbow, otherwise known as Tommy John surgery. He didn’t pitch in 2025 after posting a 3.41 ERA over 95 innings in 2024.
Cole knew his elbow was on borrowed time. The contract situation added complexity to an already difficult decision. After the 2024 season, Cole had an opt-out clause in his deal. The Yankees had the ability to void that opt-out by adding one additional year at $36 million to the end of his contract. With Cole needing Tommy John surgery, both sides agreed to leave his existing contract in place without triggering the opt-out or the additional year. It simplified things: Cole stays on his current deal, gets his surgery, and rehabs without the messiness of negotiating a new contract while injured.
Cole Looks Like He Never Left
Cole has looked excellent this spring and might even get a spring training start for an inning to test his reconstructed arm. The fact that he’s already touching 97 mph with his fastball is tremendous. That’s not rehab velocity. That’s not “getting ready” velocity. That’s regular-season Gerrit Cole velocity, which is exactly what the Yankees needed to see.
“Cole looks like ready to go. Now, he’s not throwing sliders yet, not throwing breaking balls yet—all fastballs. But Jesus, popping 97? I get it’s one inning of work, but he doesn’t look like someone who’s hurt. He doesn’t look like someone who lazed his way through his rehab,” Brendan Kuty of The Athletic said on the Fireside Yankees podcast, an Empire Sports Media production. “And really, the notion of whether the Yankees are ‘running it back’… it hinges on Cole being good. If Cole is good and healthy, they’re not running it back. If he’s not, they’re running it back.”
That’s the entire ballgame right there. The Yankees brought back largely the same roster that lost to the Blue Jays in the ALDS last year. They added Ryan Weathers, re-signed Cody Bellinger and Paul Blackburn, and that’s about it. On paper, it looks like they’re running it back. But if Gerrit Cole returns in late May or early June and pitches like the ace who posted a 2.82 ERA in 2023, suddenly this roster looks completely different.
The Rotation Equation Changes
Right now, the Yankees are rolling with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, and Luis Gil to start the season. Fried is the ace by default. Schlittler showed flashes last year but needs to develop his secondary pitches. Warren has a great fastball but gets destroyed when he leaves breaking balls over the plate. Weathers brings upside but also injury history. Gil is electric but inconsistent.
It’s a rotation that can win you 85-90 games. It’s not a rotation that wins you a championship. But add Gerrit Cole to that mix? Now you’re talking. Suddenly you have Fried and Cole at the top, which is a legitimate one-two punch that can match up with anyone in October. Schlittler becomes your third starter instead of your second, which is a much more comfortable role for a young pitcher still figuring things out.
Carlos Rodon is also working his way back from surgery to remove a bone chip in his throwing elbow. He’s expected to return sometime in late April or early May, which means the Yankees could have Fried, Rodon, and Cole by June. That’s a completely different rotation than what they’re trotting out on Opening Day.
It’s About More Than Velocity
Cole has been focused only on his fastball, still having yet to throw a slider or breaking pitch. That will be part of his next steps with the Yankees, hoping he can return in late May or early June. The fastball velocity is encouraging, but the real test comes when he starts mixing in his entire arsenal. Cole’s slider has always been his out pitch. His curveball sets up the fastball. His changeup keeps hitters honest.
“Just watching him go about it… yeah, he’s throwing 97, that’s great. But it’s the intensity, it’s the fluidity, it’s what the vibe is when he’s on the mound,” Kuty continued. “It’s like, ‘Go get your popcorn,’ ’cause you’re watching this guy as he comes back, as he’s turning back himself…”
That intensity is what separates good pitchers from great ones. Cole doesn’t just throw hard. He competes. He attacks. He makes hitters uncomfortable even when they know what’s coming. That mentality doesn’t show up on a radar gun, but it shows up in October when the pressure is suffocating and every pitch matters.
Getting Him Back Even 75% Would Be Huge
Getting Cole back even 75% of the way himself would be a huge addition to the rotation within the first few months. Let’s be honest: a 75% Gerrit Cole is still better than most pitchers at 100%. If he’s sitting 95-96 instead of 97-98, fine. If his slider has slightly less bite, okay. As long as he can give you 160-170 innings with an ERA around 3.50, he’s doing his job.
The Yankees don’t need Cole to be the 2023 version who finished third in Cy Young voting. They need him to be a stabilizing force who can eat innings and give them a chance to win every fifth day. If he can do that, the rotation goes from questionable to legitimate overnight.
If he’s built back up when September rolls around, the Yankees will have themselves a strong end of the season with their ace back in the fold. That’s when you want your best pitchers healthy and sharp. October baseball requires depth, and having Cole, Fried, and Rodon all available for a playoff run changes the entire calculus.
The Yankees can live with a mediocre April and May if they know Cole is coming. They can survive some bumps in the road from their young starters knowing reinforcements are on the way. But if Cole comes back and looks like his old self, suddenly this team isn’t “running it back.” They’re running forward with one of the best rotations in baseball.
For now, all eyes are on his next bullpen session. Can he mix in the slider? Does the curveball still have that late break? Those are the questions that will determine whether the Yankees are legitimate World Series contenders or just another team hoping to sneak into October.