The Yankees are constantly hunting for the next big thing on the trade market, often ignoring the diamonds sitting right in their own dugout. Last season, Ben Rice forced the organization to stop looking outward and start paying attention to the 26-year-old crushing baseballs in the middle of their lineup.
After a 2025 campaign where he split time between catcher and first base, the Yankees have seen enough to hand him the keys to the first base job permanently. Rice didn’t just survive his first full season in the majors; he posted a .255/.337/.499 slash line with 26 home runs and a 133 wRC+, proving he is already one of the most dangerous hitters in the American League.
To understand just how special Rice was, you have to look beyond the surface numbers and contextualize his production against the league’s elite. His 133 wRC+ means he was 33% better than the league average hitter, a mark that was only 3% lower than Kyle Tucker, a player who is about to command a $300 million contract.
The difference is that the Yankees have Rice under team control for five more years at a fraction of the cost. While the front office navigates a bloated payroll, having a middle-of-the-order bat making pre-arbitration money is the kind of cheat code that keeps championship windows open.
The Most Unlucky Hitter in Baseball Wears New York Yankees Pinstripes
If you thought Rice’s 2025 numbers were impressive, the underlying metrics suggest he was actually robbed of a historic season. Rice ranked in the 97th percentile for both expected slugging and expected weighted on-base average, confirming that his quality of contact was elite. He pulverized baseballs, ranking in the 95th percentile for average exit velocity and the 97th percentile for hard-hit rate, yet his actual batting average of .255 lagged significantly behind his expected batting average of .283.
The reason for this discrepancy is a statistical anomaly that borders on comical. Opposing defenders accumulated a +12 Fielding Run Value against Rice, meaning they made more elite defensive plays against him than any other batter in baseball. He was effectively the unluckiest hitter in the sport, constantly hitting scorching line drives right into the gloves of diving outfielders. If that defensive luck normalizes in 2026, Rice’s statistics are going to explode, turning a great season into an MVP-caliber one.
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A Rare Blend of Power and Discipline
Usually, young sluggers with this kind of raw power come with a “swing and miss” tax, but Rice is a delightful exception to the rule. While he ranked in the 92nd percentile for barrel rate, he also showcased veteran discipline, ranking in the 91st percentile for chase rate. He doesn’t expand the zone, and his 18.9% strikeout rate is well below the league average for power hitters. Finding a player who hits the ball this hard without striking out or chasing bad pitches is like finding a unicorn, and the Yankees know they have a lineup staple for the next decade.
Defensively, the Yankees are willing to live with the growing pains as he transitions to first base full-time. He played 370 innings at the cold corner last year, posting -2 defensive runs saved and one out above average, which is perfectly serviceable given his offensive ceiling. If he can simply be an average defender, the value of his bat makes him an All-Star.
Steamer projections are currently forecasting a regression, pegging Rice for a .247 average with 24 homers, but those computers are missing the context of his misfortune. He is easily one of the 3 Yankees who will crush their 2026 projections, largely because positive regression is inevitable. When the luck turns, Ben Rice won’t just be a good story; he will be a superstar.