Sunday was a game that the Yankees had control of for the first four innings, with Carlos Rodon cruising and the offense getting two quick runs against Hunter Dobbins off of an Aaron Judge home run.
Just like last Friday, it was a game that slipped from their fingers when their normally-excellent starter faded in the later innings, with the bullpen putting gasoline on the fire.
Unlike that ugly loss to the Dodgers, the Yankees actually saw their offense punch back numerous times, bringing the game within reach multiple times just for a bevy of relievers to step in and get crushed.
The Yankees are a first-place team with a 4.5-game lead in the division, one that has a very good chance of winning their division and getting a first-round bye, but they also have very real flaws.
A pitching staff that has been far better than we could have expected without Gerrit Cole, the injury to Luke Weaver and some key underperformances in the bullpen have decimated a once formidable unit.
Playing Poorly Against the AL East Is a Problem
The Yankees have gone 8-8 against the American League East this season. While I wouldn’t consider their opponents the kind of teams that you measure up against as you try and compete for the top spot in the league, it’s the reason why they don’t have a larger lead in the division.
You cannot play .500 baseball against your division; it directly hinders your chances of walking away as champions as it lowers your division odds, and a Wild Card berth would put New York in a do-or-die three-game series.
Last season their summer swoon didn’t sink them because everyone else in the American League East played poorly, and while that was the case to start this season as well, their division has finally caught fire.
It was a matter of when, not if, it was hard to imagine that a division with that much talent wouldn’t produce at least one other above-.500 team, but now the AL East isn’t a forgone conclusion.
The Yankees have the highest odds of winning their division on FanGraphs (85.3%) and no other team has more than a 7.3% chance of taking home the AL East title, so it’s not like they’re on the brink of collapse right now either.
That being said, for Aaron Boone to not manage yesterday more aggressively when he rested the bullpen on Saturday is beyond me. While they eventually failed to stop the bleeding, the right call was pulling Carlos Rodon against Carlos Narvaez and bringing in Fernando Cruz.
With an off-day today, it made zero sense to push Carlos Rodon as much as he did, and while I wondered if the decision aged well due to the bullpen’s poor play, that’s hindsight managing.
Sometimes you have to manage a game like it’s June 8th (as he did on Saturday), avoiding pushing your staff too hard or ignoring scheduled off-days, but Sunday was the day to manage aggressively.
It keeps Boston’s season alive, robbed you of an opportunity to go up 5.5 in the division, and gives the Red Sox a crucial moral victory that they can use to fuel them next weekend.
The Orioles took a series they simply shouldn’t have taken in April, and an inferior Red Sox team took two straight to snatch a series against you this weekend.
You blew two late-game leads against the Rays in the two series you played against them, and blew another lead that would have allowed you to sweep Toronto.
There are at least 4-5 games this team should have won against their AL East opponents that they handed away, and that leads me to perhaps my biggest question regarding this team: pitching.
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The Yankees Need Pitchers To Step Up Before the Deadline
Jonathan Loaisiga has gone from a pitcher who was known for never surrendering the long ball to someone who has already allowed more home runs this year than he has in any season of his career since 2020.
Ian Hamilton’s fastball velocity has dipped by 1.3 MPH from last season, and while he doesn’t get hit hard (6.1% Barrel%) and he actually strikes out more batters than he had in 2023 or 2024 (29.2% K%), he has no semblance of the strike zone.
Brent Headrick went from a fun project arm to someone who has allowed a home run in each of his last three outings, and I have no idea if I can or cannot trust Yerry De Los Santos at the moment.
Ideally two of these arms get it going and snap out of their recent funks, because if not then the Yankees will have some work to do at the deadline to rework the bullpen.
Luke Weaver’s injury doesn’t help matters at all, but I expect more than what we’ve seen from some of the veterans on the team this year.
Nothing is going to happen on the trade front until July so it’s on the guys in that room right now to perform, but there is some help that could be on the way.
Jake Cousins is currently rehabbing in Hudson Valley with the Renegades, and he’s built up to throw multiple innings if needed.
They also could promote Clayton Beeter, although his strike rates at the Triple-A level have regressed and I wonder if the team is going to have him work through some things mechanically before coming up.
It should also be noted that Luis Gil’s return could push one of Ryan Yarbrough or Will Warren into a bullpen role, where either pitcher would serve as a direct improvement over what they have in house.
Here’s the kicker; the Yankees are in first place guys. This isn’t a team that has played bad baseball for a month and is watching their playoff hopes slip away.
This team has flaws, they need help at the deadline, and they desperately need Luke Weaver, Jake Cousins, and Luis Gil to get back from the injured list, but there’s not a single team in baseball who isn’t seriously flawed.
The Yankees rank fourth in baseball in K-BB% and fifth in adjusted FIP (FIP-) as a pitching staff, hopefully they rebound in Kansas City and get some revenge at Fenway Park against the Red Sox.
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