Does a 4.79 ERA tell the whole story, or is it just a convenient lie that masks one of the most electric arms in baseball?
The New York Yankees are grappling with this exact question as they navigate a treacherous free agency period. The bullpen needs support. There is no getting around that fact. With Luke Weaver and Devin Williams both hitting the open market, the relief corps feels suddenly thin. Brian Cashman has to decide if he trusts the surface-level disaster we saw from Williams or the elite metrics bubbling underneath.
David Bednar Anchors the Yankees Ninth Inning
You have to start with the good news before diving into the controversy. The Yankees have David Bednar locked in as their primary closer for 2026. That is a massive luxury. The 31-year-old is under team control before he becomes a free agent in 2027, giving the Bronx Bombers a verified safety net at the back end of games.
Bednar was nothing short of sensational after putting on the pinstripes. He posted a 2.30 ERA last season overall, but he was even better in the Bronx. He pitched to a 2.19 ERA with the Yankees over 24.2 innings. He wasn’t just getting outs. He was overpowering guys. He struck out 12.77 batters per nine innings during that stretch. Having him set in stone allows the front office to breathe a little easier, but one arm doesn’t make a bullpen.
The Deceptive Data Behind Devin Williams
This is where things get complicated. The Yankees could try to bring back Williams after acquiring him from the Milwaukee Brewers last offseason, but the optics are messy. He underperformed significantly. There is no sugarcoating a 4.79 ERA over 62 innings. In this market, a number like that usually sends a player’s value plummeting.
However, if you look closer, you see a pitcher who got extremely unlucky. His underlying metrics are still elite. We are talking about a guy sporting a 97th percentile chase rate and strikeout rate. Even more absurd is his 99th percentile whiff rate. Batters still cannot hit his stuff. The discrepancy between his ERA and his dominance suggests that other teams will likely try to capitalize on that reality. Smart front offices know that variance happens, and Williams is a prime candidate for a massive bounce-back campaign.
Miami Marlins Could Outspend New York
The Yankees aren’t the only ones looking at the spreadsheets. According to Kevin Barral, a Miami Marlins writer and reporter, the Marlins have interest in Williams. That might sound strange at first glance. It would be an interesting move for Williams to go to such a non-competitive team, but the financial landscape is shifting in Florida.
Barral reports that the Marlins are trying to spend a bit more before the CBA negotiations in 2027. They have money to burn and a need for high-end talent. While the Yankees offer a chance to win, money talks at the end of the day. If Miami decides to pay for the metrics rather than the ERA, they could easily outbid a hesitant Yankees front office.
Cashman needs to read the tea leaves here. He has Bednar, which is great, but letting Williams walk because of a bout of bad luck could haunt this team. The stuff is there. The whiffs are there. The only question is whether the Yankees are willing to pay for what Williams will do next year, rather than punishing him for what happened last year.